@lbcake
weather, at least this time of year...been in the 40's in places like chicago mil etc.. hard to hit in that cold.....pitching, current and historical......individual matchups between pitchers and batters........shitty bullpens that if a team can get to them they are a gas can........
Yes, Corbin is a heap of manure thus far. BUT, what I was really looking for from you, was a number or a stat that would start you on the road to a wager. Weather can be important ,yes. I'm not gonna give away trade secrets, but in 2008 or 9 Scott Feldman won me the lottery that year using this number/stat(as a starting point). And he had a losing record with a high ERA.
@lbcake
I have a question for you - what is the very 1st piece of info you look at to determine whether (in your case) an over wager is in the cards?
interesting question
usually the first thing I would want to know is both SP career ERA vs team they are playing, those can be a great indicator, especially if there is a large sample size
next is the SPs numbers at that specific ballpark on game day
3rd would be the SPs career day/night splits and career month splits
4th would be SPs career numbers vs that days starting lineups
then I would look at their numbers from the current season and see if they are similar to the career numbers
then you get into factoring which teams bats come into the game hot, or if both teams are starting to heat up
and also will sometimes check a teams runs/scored last 5 games, indicator of if they hitting well leading up to the game
and of course ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS check for potential rain out and if wind is blowing out/in, although im not a huge wind out/wind in guy
and also the strike % of the umpire behind home plate, some guys are 58-60% while others are 63-65%
of course there are about 8 million other factors you could cap but i usually start there
any blatant ones i missed, i could be forgetting one i usually factor in
where do you start? SPs numbers in the ballpark the game played in?
I forgot to mention, like anything, larger sample sizes are better. As the season wears on, the 'stat' will be more predictive.
Established in 1995,
.............fuck it, dont put it out here, pm me
..............im talking to u robin ventura
.....dont you start double posting like some other member in the box who will not be named
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