CD Newsletter Week 12

It is an honor to do this newsletter in honor of Club. He is missed but you all have done a great job of carrying on the tradition. Let's do this:

Turkey Day games

Bills-9 Lions total 54

A lot is being made of the travel plans of Buffalo and the resurgence of Detroit. The line seems to be asking you to take the Lions. The Lions have lost 5 straight on Turkey Day with two by seven, one by four, and one by 16. In other words, they have lost but kept it relatively close. The Lions resurgence has been against the Packers, Bears, and Giants, not exactly teams in the upper echelon (and I predict the Giants end the season with eight losses and miss the playoffs). 

Giants+9 Cowboys total 44.5

In spite of the above, is this a game that defines the old adage that an NFL team is never as good or as bad as the looked the previous week? And for years, NFC East dogs were money (likely because the teams were so even that receiving points was an advantage). But if you break this game down, what is the scenario that would see a Giants victory? Long sustained drives and keeping the ball away from the Dallas O? Dallas has won 10/11 in this series with an average margin of victory of 11.4. 

Patriots+3 Vikings total 42

For a Vikings fan, the fear in this game is that Dallas exploited weaknesses we have known; our offensive line and lack of in-game adjustments (even though we have all the comebacks this year, it wasn't really because we adjusted to schemes). In fact, Jefferson commented on this after the game. If Dallas can do this with a mediocre coach (I said it), WWBD (would will Bellicheat do)? The problem for NE is the offense can't score. Some (including this guy, right here), think the loss was actually good in some ways. A close loss would have allowed excuses (game sandwiched between dramatic victory and home Turkey day). A bad loss should make them angry and remind them that they have work to do. 

Denver+2.5 Carolina total 36

Two teams that cannot score. Hard to lean on one side or the other. Also a very low total for a November game where weather won't be an issue. But taking the over means you are essentially hoping one teams can score more than three TDs (Denver has only twice this year, Carolina has five times but only once since trading McCaffrey). 

Falcons+4.5 Washington total 42.5

Two teams that really seem worse than their records (they are a combined .500). Interesting note on Washington. They are 9-2 on unders in last 11 and both those overs could have easily been under the number. 

Houston+12 Miami total 46

The 'survivors' likely choice of the week (assuming most people already had KC), Miami has been a double digit favorite three times in three years, two of those against the Jets. A good measuring stick for how good this Miami team can be (i.e. can they convincingly win the games they should). Also a large dog/lower total straight play (i.e. if you take Houston and the points, you cannot lose both if they score 17). Miami has only held two teams to less than 17 points; Pitt and NE. 

Bengals-1 Tenn total 46

A healthy QB for Tenn puts them in every game. This is the something has to give game for ATS. The Titans have covered eight straight and the Bengals 7/8. I actually like the under because Tenn seems to do a good job of holding teams with quick scoring capabilities down. 

Bears+4.5 Jets total 41.5

Rumor is it is dislocated left shoulder for Fields likely ending his season. Until confirmed, probably a game to stay away but the line is certainly telling us he is out this week. 

Bucs-3 Browns total 43.5

Guess who leads the NFL in pass attempts even off a bye week? The Browns three wins this season are against the Panthers, Steelers, and the Bengals. It is really hard to see the Browns victorious in this spot. One thing that appears to be overlooked in the Bucs struggles this season (besides Brady not being able to pass longer than 10 yards) is the coaching. But a veteran team that needs the win coming off a bye seems to be the right call. 

Ravens -4 Jax total 44

Hmmm...did anyone watch the Shrimps last week? The NFL has really caught up to Jackson. Or has it? They have actually put points up yet he has only thrown for more than 200 years once in the last seven weeks. Meanwhile, in only two weeks have the Jax had a total less than 38. Total might be a little low. 

Chargers -3.5 Cards total 48

Will wait until this game is done but did anyone watch the game last night? Herbert has only one marginally healthy WR and he still is dangerous. Watching the game now but this Cards team doesn't appear interested except for Hopkins.  

Raiders +3.5 Seahawks total 47.5

The Raiders acted like they won the super bowl yesterday and that is more of a problem than it should be. I have criticized Pete Carroll for years but it looks like he was never really the issue (except for passing rather than handing off to Lynch). The Raiders victories are against Denver (twice) and Houston. I don't think Carr is the problem at all. Its simply. McDaniels cannot coach. He doesn't have the players respect, he doesn't adjust, and I'll take the coaching mismatch. 

Houston+12 Miami total 46

The 'survivors' likely choice of the week (assuming most people already had KC), Miami has been a double digit favorite three times in three years, two of those against the Jets. A good measuring stick for how good this Miami team can be (i.e. can they convincingly win the games they should). Also a large dog/lower total straight play (i.e. if you take Houston and the points, you cannot lose both if they score 17). Miami has only held two teams to less than 17 points; Pitt and NE.

I'm looking at the Over , Good Job DJ

Rams-14.5 Chiefs total 44

CD newsletter has pegged the Chiefs as playing to the competition all year. How true is that? Well, they are 3-6-1 against the spread with the covers all on the road, against the Cards at -6, as dogs against the Bucs, and -1 at the Niners. Then again, this Rams team has the makings of one that has given up. 

Saints/Niners-waiting

Packers+7 Eagles total 45.5

Could this be the real end of the Packers? ESPN gives them a 5% playoff chance if they lose. Its hard to see a scenario that works for them. They have looked good for one half (and really one quarter) since October 2. 

DJ right out the gate with a startling prediction of a Giants collapse.   I would like to make a correction regarding the Baltimore Ravens, Lamar Jackson has not thrown for 200 years in 7 weeks.  . 

I like the U 44' in Gints/Boys any thoughts on possible movement ?

Nice work DJ. Nobody is on bye so you had a full plate there.

You talked me into the Seahawks most likely. Actually, you reminded me to stay on that wagon even though she tipped vs the Bucs.

The line is low. Initially that hook deterred my eye, but cmon it's the fuckin Raiders.

One thing to keep in mind...the Niners and the over cashed last night. Leaving squares giddy for this week. There are a ton of big favorites out there. My 3 look ahead bets are chalk, and I lean more chalk. This has me scared, as in the nfl a dog can win outright out of no where.

Great job.....Passing in Bmore last week was impossible ...

Winds were brutal.....That total looks high....

Ravens D is wicked....

Check the passing yards on the Bucs/Ravens game (238, net 222) 

@Biscuiteater1

 I think the public always plays over on Turkey day. 

@Cyrax

 Same, got 45.5 currently...

When looking at the line and total.. they have the predicted score of 28-17...can Texans score 17?? Thinkiing Miami should get 31+....Texans garbage time TD?

Initial gut

Hou/mia over 45.5  ...3-0 last 3 weeks on these and didn't bet one so if I bet this its bound to lose

Possible leans...chargers -3.5...bucs -3....den/car under if the line moves towards 37+.....Seahawks-3.5...

1 tid bit.....Brissett swan song this week....Watson on deck next week....do browns rally around him or pack it in??

Can either team score 17+ in Carolina??

Who is bears backup?? Chase Daniel still in league?? Looks like Trevor semien  hmmmmmm....

"Chase Daniel Eats Boogers" still a top 5 College Gameday sign of all time

@dubz4dummyz

 Haven't seen him in a few years but Siemian was not good when given a chance in Denver. Has never completed more than 60% of his passes, is turnover prone, and provides next to nothing in the rushing dept. The Bears simply don't have the OL and receivers to support a pocket passer. Big trouble brewing.

@Getty3

 Fields out for sure?? 

100% agree about the pocket passer comment...fields is their entire offense right now...possible under.  Jets dl should feast 

@Cyrax

 Just like that 46.5...don't think I trust Texans to score 17 lol

31-17 gets ya over

31-14 loser

Phins rusty off bye and only put up 27? Or fresh and put up 35+

Interesting total for sure

Jets reportedly "rethinking" the QB position, Saleh told Wilson he hasn't decided on a starter for Sunday. No matter what they do this is a positive for the Jets letting the players know that dogshit football is unacceptable. Love NYJ now only if Fields is confirmed out (shoulder).

If they play him it will be gm and coaching suicide if he gets hurt. The Bears are eliminated from the playoffs, and currently hold the #3 overall pick.

@Biscuiteater1

 this is partly why I jumped on the Bears +6 initially.....that Jets team is/was fed up with this kid.....

Last night I hedged it with Jets -4......once I heard that Flacco may be starting.  I think they are better with Flacco, I also think Saleh can win the locker room attention and effort for a winnable game by making the switch.  Wilson deserves to be benched.  If for nothing else so that I can hit on my under 3650.5 yearly yards prop on him.  

I'm a Joey man thru & thru and a Ravens fan. It seems he's in the same old situation he's been in since the last quarter of his Raven days and thats teams with poor running games and less than stellar receivers but decent defensive teams.I look at the Bears situation without Fields as anytime a team loses their heart and soul that 1st game without him they fight like dogs or lay down like one. 

Week 12 look ahead bets:

Buccaneers -3(-110) *2.00/1.82

Chargers -2.5(-110) *1.50/1.36

Dolphins -10(-110) *1.00/.91

Will update record after work. Leaning Colts and Jets.

Only dog I'm leaning is the Lions. But huge concern that Okudah doesn't play. Who the hell covers Stefon Diggs then?