CD Newsletter Week 12

@Cyrax

 Balls of steel bet on the Titans. They are 1-9 ats this year. Lost their starting center 2 weeks ago. Will Levis...God help your soul, but the line is 1.5 pts too high.

@undermysac

 I know that it's not a popular pick ( just like your Panther pick )  , but popularity don't always win

Ur  best post ever.....

Jimbo they played the Wings, not the Stars.

I just witnessed a Wales football match where the fav was -1000ish and the dog +2000ish. The dog just won.
Also the goal line closed at (4.5). It was 3-1 at half - ended 3-1. Over bettors just blacked out. 

As for that Sharks/Stars game, the best way to play it(IMO) is the +1.5 (+145).
Sharks L10, 8 of 10 were decided by 1.
Sharks v Stars L10, 7 of 10 were decided by 1.  

43-44-6 (-0.80) YTD

Cardinals ML(-105) *1.50/1.43

Panthers +11.5(-110) *3.30/3.00

Panthers ML(+490) *.70/3.43

Texans 1H -4.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Chargers 1H ML(+115) *1.00/1.15

Rams +2.5(+102) *1.00/1.02

Vikings 1Q ML(-130) *2.00/1.54

Vikings 1Q -0.5(+130) *1.50/1.95

Vikings 1H -1.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Did you know, that the Bears are the only team to have not scored first in any given game? They are 0-7-3 in the first quarter this year.

The Vikings are 8-1-1 in the first quarter this year. Including a 10-0 win vs the Lions.

The Vikings are #2 on offense epa per play in the 1Q, and the Bears are #27 in the 1Q.

Defensively the Vikings are #2 in the 1Q, and the Bears are #23 in the 1Q.

It looks like DeAndre Swift is missing this game. They traded Khalil Herbert to the Bengals 2 weeks ago. That leaves a slow footed(but strong) Roschon Johnson at RB. I can't even name another RB on the roster.

The best angle here, the Bears OC has only called one game in his career, vs Brian Flores, and Caleb is a rookie who hasn't come close to seeing a really tough defense. Until the Purple People Eaters come to town.

On the flip side, the Bears have been #1 in blitz rate the last 2 years. Eberflus likes to blitz from everywhere, including the secondary. This is not the way to attack Sam Darnold. He has been the best QB vs the blitz this year. Until recently, teams have stopped blitzing him and his play has fell off some.

https://youtu.be/_EW1pSPU4ZU?si=HB6RM_-RzXrErU-r

I'd like to think that the Bears have been watching that tape and noticing it as well. But I know this Bears coaching too well to know that they will continue to be themselves. Absolute idiots.

Kevin O'Connell>Eberflus 

Vikings sos #13

Bears sos #30

Vikings 1H PR #5(5.5), Bears 1H #24(-3.2)

@lbcake

TNS just made a killing for the bookies, the amount of degenerates, that took something at HT, must've been staggering.

Btw, your Pool bet looks good, with the big game coming up next week. Also, finally no more national teams mumbo jumbo breaks, the next 3 weeks are gonna be loaded with games.

@yaongingy

They have Real on the Wednesday before. Energy will be expended. A draw would be a massive result. 

Tonite's barn burner. I smell lots of punting/fg attempts. 

FGs made  O3.5  (2.20)

Got to thinking a little bit while looking at some look ahead lines.

There are 3 Thanksgiving games. Bears/Lions, Giants/Cowboys(gross), and Dolphins/Packers(7:20 pm central time, cold cold cold)

Will there be any looking ahead for these squads this week?

Also, as fate may have it, the Raiders play at KC on Friday. Maybe my fade of KC this week just got better?

@Cyrax

 Great job stepping up b2b weeks on the Newsletter. I'll do week 13 on Monday after work. There's a lot to navigate, weird schedule and such.

Week 13 look ahead bets:

Packers -3.5(-110) *1.00/.91

Broncos -7(-110) *1.00/.91

Locked in 

Raiders beat the Chiefs last year on  Xmas day.....

@undermysac

 How come you aren’t doing Browns 1h?

The Titans are 7-26-1 ats in the 2H the last 2 years. 1-9 this year, beating the Bears in week 1

Fuck them they suck. Not putting a nickel on that team. Nor Pitt tonight, trying to stay away from TNF. 

NC St. / GTech over 51  (5u ) 

Off a 1-1 last week in pro

Here is what I am on tonight:

Cleveland +3.5

Thursday Night Potluck Under Jamborre continues today...this is a blind bet with no thought, rhyme or reason so will be looked at all on it's own....

YTD since week 4 NFL: 3-5

Steelers/Browns Under 37

Good luck wankers

Books got just what they wanted last night and poor U bettors, 16 pts thru 3 and then 27 in the 4th. 

@undermysac

 I like that Minn stat I’ll tail some of that  1q 

Now I know its not wise to rush in a bet because of a QB injury but with Brock Purdy not finishing practice because of shoulder ( throwing) issues then having to play in cold weather my guess is he's very doubtful. That - 3 is likely to climb and announced back up though being in league for 8 years or so has barely played more than I have. - 3 it is.