Been on vacation since November 3, sleep schedule is way off. Right now, this very minute of the day is what used to be roughly 6AM. Roughly 5 hours behind, but the clock really is just a suggestion.
Also totally forgot I was doing this thing, or I would have started it earlier. almost over. making coffee now. My morning shit will follow shortly.
That is actually the only thing I do on time lately. The coffee....then....the poop. Sometimes I wonder if your butt actually smells the world around it also. Years from now they may discover this.
I have an awesome coffee machine. When I used to be on a schedule it was on a timer so I would have a whole pot ready the second I woke up. This is probably a basic feature to most, but it made me so happy when purchased
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-7) PK.....Total 43
I was rethinking this morning whether last night was a show of things to potentially come for the Steelers, and maybe it is, but I will temper that.....what I do know is that Najee Harris is the only Pitt RB that did not average over 5 yards per carry. Kenny with the tiny hands has not thrown a pick in 3 weeks, has had respectable ratings, and maybe, just maybe,.....the game is slowing down just enough for KP to allow that defense to keep them in games long enough to not be a doormat. Harris getting injured might actually be a good thing. This team is so different with Watt playing. He came back in the Saints game, they're 3-1 with him. You can take your socks off and figure out the rest.
Atlanta, despite metrics, is on the doorstep to the playoffs.........and looking at their schedule there is not much argument that they could end up with a winning record. Mariota is reliable, but the team just gives it up too much on defense......just a little too soft on D, and not scary enough on O. They are average to the eye test, and I respect the job Art Smith is doing (They lead the league with the lowest penalties/game rate) with what the GM gave him to work with. Makes you wonder if they should have handed the reigns over to the kid Ridder from Cincy earlier like Pitt did, and used this year as learning, and a better draft pick, and move forward......Because QB play in the NFL is so bad, Mariota may have a job until 2035.
Tenn Titans (7-4) @ Philadephia Eagles (10-1) ..........Philly -5.5 Total 44.5
How do you beat this Eagle team? This Eagle team that is 1st in Turnover Margin, 2nd in Opp Pass Yds, 2nd in total Opp Yards, 3rd in scoring, 3rd in rushing yards? The only team to do it was the Commies, and they forced 4 turnovers and rushed for 152 on the ground to do it. Jalen Hurts is a weapon, and looks to be in total control, with an outside shot at 3500 pass and 1000 rush yards. They have the weapons around him too. Sometimes when I watch Philly games I think Darius Slay is the best player in the world. I have 2 Miles Sanders futures personally, 1 over 4.5 TD, 1 over 750.5 rush yards. Plus 2 overs on their team wins.....all have cashed. Anything short of the SuperBowl would be a let down at this point. They are that good.
Tennessee is always gonna come to fight, they have that perpetual chip on their shoulder, but sometimes remind me if a more talented version of Atlanta. Aside from a blowout loss to the Bills, their other 3 losses were tight games....and they've had some injuries on both sides of the ball......if they win the division and win a playoff game, Vrabel really should get some COY votes for the job he has done....the division is weak, which helps, but there are few cupcakes in the NFL. If Tenn is gonna win this game, which they absolutely CAN do, they need to play perfect football, force a TO or 2, and keep that Philly running game on the sidelines.
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) @ LA Rams (3-8) .........Hawks -7.5 Total 41.5
Man....if Seattle only had a defense, and could stop anything, we might have something with that team. Geno is running at almost 73% comp, 19TD/5 INT. Walker has really only played 7 games and has a shot at 1000 yards. DK and Lockett might both get 1000 yards. They need to really draft defense, trade, whatever, and run this thing back. They are 1 game out of the playoffs right now, and have to play the Niners and Chiefs still....Luckily they have the Rams twice, Jets, and Panthers, and a 10-7 season might get them in the tourney, because I wanna see Geno win a playoff game.
The Rams. Gross. Just gross. I think Donald is gonna retire, Stafford gets traded, McVay goes to TV, and they blow this thing up.
LA Chargers (6-5) @ Raiders (4-7)......LAC -1.5 Total 50.5
I personally think Herbert is getting snubbed in the MVP conversation, and I know he will never win it this season, but I feel like this kid single handedly kept this team relevant and currently 1 game out of the playoffs. The injuries around him and Austin Ekeler have been brutal, and the defense has been terrible. That 38-10 loss to the Jags is a head scratcher for sure, and although they are in my division, I have always kinda liked them. They seem to always have a QB, and talent, and can't get over the hump. As much as I root for the Raiders, it would surprise me if we beat them this week, but as we know anything can happen.
As for the greatness that is the storied Raider franchise......this was a terrible blue balls kind of season so far. The last tie I was this excited was that second Gannon MVP year when the game almost looked slow for them and they scored at will. I had such high expectations for them. I don't even know where they go from here. The defense needs work, and Carr cannot do it all. I feel like things may change soon in Vegas. Someone is gonna get fired or traded.
Dolphins (8-3) @ Niners (7-4) ...... Niners -4 Total 46.5
This should be a good one. Not much to dislike about seeing if this Miami offense can hang with a defense like the Niners....plus the whole Student vs Teacher plot line.....even if they are both younger than me I think. Injuries here are important, and this line is already moving a bit between 4.5 and 3.5. CMC may be carrying a bit more of the load than Shanahan wanted him to considering the Elijah Mitchell injury, and maybe they are regretting trading Jeff Wilson to Miami. Arik Armstead may be out, but the niners just got back very underrated LB Azeez Al-Shaair.
Biggest problem here for the Dolphins, may be injuries to BOTH starting tackles. They are possibly getting Byron Jones back, but if both tackles can't go, then this Niner defense may get to Tua. I was initally leaning Fins, but after looking at the injuries, and how the Niners seem to look on D, I may just watch this one.
making coffee now. My morning shit will follow shortly. That is actually the only thing I do on time lately. The coffee....then....the poop. Sometimes I wonder if your butt actually smells the world around it also. Years from now they may discover this.
This is the type of analysis that has been missing from the Newsletter.
Excellent breakdown, with quality insight at the end.
Only thing missing is home and away splits 
KC Chiefs (9-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) ......KC -2.5 Total 52.5
This is the game I really wanna watch this week. I am hoping Chase and Mixon are back. This game has payback written all over it for Mahomes. We all remember last year how Burrow led the Bengals back from a seemingly definite defeat, taking them on to the SuperBowl, only to lose to the Rams. Mahomes, Kelce, Reid, and company no doubt circled this one on their calendars when the schedules got released. KC leads the league in passing, and as much as I systemically hate the Chiefs, as a football fan, I love watching them. Aside from Hardman and CEH, they are also relatively healthy. The Chiefs have 2 losses, by a total of 7 points, and it is hard to not take them -2.5. The line is just moving to -2 as I write this. Looks like Bengal money coming in. People just love Joe Burrow. His body language in the beginning of this season during some games turned me off a bit, but he may have been right to be annoyed with the conservative play calling. Awuzie is out for Cincy, so this is a tough task for them. I think we see a high scoring affair.
Colts (4-7) @ Cowboys (8-3)........Boys -10.5 Total 43.5
Matt Ryan....wow.....this guy just looks like all of the fast twitch fibers in his entire body evaporated. They actually have a decent team, they really need a QB. I think this team is going to be in the mix to trade up or do something to take one of the QBs coming out. Taylor is still a great back, and Pittman is a WR1. Darius Leonard will be back, they still have Gilmore, Deforest Buckner, and some other pieces. A really good draft might turn this into a 10-12 win team quickly considering that weak division.
Dem Boyz.....they should TCB this week and go to 9-3. This will be a favorite game among the teasers. These cowboys are getting scary healthy at the right time of the year too, Tyron Smith, Anthony Barr, Joseph, all on the way back......maybe a "Mini" get right game here.....then howbout this....they get the Texans and Jags coming up. Possibility of being 11-3 before that week 16 showdown with the Eagles. Looking forward to that. Flying under the radar as much as a team fighting for the playoff bye can fly......this team is about as complete a team as we have in the NFL. #1 opp pass yds againstn on D, #7 offensive scoring, #4 in TO margin.....Much like the Eagles, the only C- Hink in the armor is you can kind of run on them.....
Saints (4-8) @ Bucs (5-6) ...........Bucs -3.5 Total 40
What are the Saints even doing? Why are you not playing Jameis? Taysom? Anyone? It is so sick that they are like 1.5 games out of a playoff spot because of that awful division. The Bucs are at the top at 5-6, then Atlanta at 5-7, then the Saints and Panthers at 4-8. So crazy. The Bucs just gave one away to the Browns, creating a bigger mess. This game should be an easy win for the Bucs, but these Saints will probably hang around. Another injury for the Bucs, Wirfs, starting tackle, out for a month. On paper, this Bucs offense looks like it should be scoring more, but something continues to not click for them. They are last in the league in rushing, 5th in passing. Teams know this. Dennis Allen is a defensive minded coach, and underrated. Although I would not be surprised if Tampa wins by a TD or more, a low scoring close game is more likely. Tom is holding onto a playoff spot by the skin of his nuts.....I cannot help but think this team is better than this, and nobody seems more of a wet napkin to me than Todd Bowles. Unless this guy is a totally different person behind closed doors, he should not be a head coach.
Ok. CD Newsletter finished. There was so much more I wanted to include, statistically speaking, but it would have just been too long. (that's what she said). It is easy for me to start comparing numbers and schemes, and really you could take an entire day to breakdown each game. I wish I could get paid for that.
Now time to warm up some of the ziti and meat gravy I made on Sunday. Add a little ricotta to freshen it up. And watch the US vs Iran
I can't remember the last time I didn't shit at home
@JDD
Excellent job, good read.
I believe that the Saints are 5-1 vs the Bucs since Tom Brady joined.
Last I checked, the Chiefs are on a 25-0 run in the months of November and December in the Mahomes era. That is God like. I like the Bengals too much to bet against them, and I respect the Chiefs too much to bet against them. A voice is telling me to just watch this game, and fade both teams ats the following week, as this will be a high leverage clobber knocker.
Getty and Hugh a few weeks ago talked about when one unit is playing outstanding and keeping their team in games, and the other unit is awful. And at what point does said unit give up? This is the week for the Broncos to completely implode.
Did you know, that the Ravens D has surpassed the Broncos D in weighted dvoa?
The Broncos have not faced a running qb yet this year, and they are 17th vs the run per dvoa.
Is anyone going to cap this certain nugget...the Ravens are #1 in special teams dvoa, and the Broncos are #32.
The most unbettable game this week is the Packers at Bears.
If you don't like/root for the Lions every week, then you aren't human.
Dolphins at Niners game of the week. Look to fade both next week alla Bengals and Chiefs.
Lines keep getting tighter by the week, teasers are doing better in recent weeks, compared to the first half of the year.
@undermysac
thank you
You are spot on about the teasers.....if I am being totally honest.....they absolutely saved my ass last week. The way I put in my bets I try to protect myself with the extra big teasers, and it rarely backfires. When I have a great regular week, the teasers typically add a little profit, when I have a bad week, they typically save my ass.
Lately you can throw almost any 10-13 point swing on the board and be ok. I like it like that. I actually already have 3 in for this coming week lol. Never saw a teaser that did not look great on paper.
As far as Miami and SF are concerned......and as good as the Fins have looked.....Tua is not very mobile, and their running game has been lacking.
I am not a head coach, but if I were Shanahan, I would find a way to take away the seam option quick in/out routes and make them beat me another way. Maybe smack the shit out of the wideouts early and often and send a message.
This is a really big test for this Dolphin team this week. Tua has been very good avoiding sacks this season for the most part. The Dolphins are towards the top of the league in sacks allowed....not top 5 or anything, but respectable. From a nerdy X and O perspective I am eager to see if McDaniels can live against the SF defense with the offense averaging 36 pass and 23 rush attempts per game. They even only averaged 2.5 yards/carry against those Texans. Can Miami actually sustain a friggin drive when it actually matters.....like the 4/5/6 minute offense with a lead.
They may get exposed this week.
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