CD Newsletter week # 14

Thursday Night 

Vegas @ Rams  Vegas -6/ 44.5

Raiders back from the dead ?..Rams actually tried hard last week.

Jacobs has carried them..Adams having a great year as well...

Steelers -3 vs the Shrimps  36.5

Jackson out..Huntley in bad passer worse runner..

Pickett has matured a lot..Watt plays they win...GL

Clev +6 @ Cinncy  47.5..

Watson looked like chit...Burrow back in form..

Huge revenge game for the Bengals

Jets + 9.5 @Bills  44.5

Jets almost won at the Vikes..Bills extra prep

Revenge ..number says this will be ugly

Jax @Tenn -3.5  42.5

2 teams who got trampled last week..

Henry wearing down..

Jax  D is a joke...

Hou @ Dallas -17  44.5

Texans are  a sorry bunch..

Vegas begging people to take them....No

Philly @Giants Philly -6.5.....45.5

Hurts league MVP....will get theirs..

D  getting pieces back inside...Davis DT...

Minn @Detroit Lions -1.5 53.5  

Track meet awaits..Cyrax Special  

Indoor track meet...Speed kills..

Chiefs @ Denver ..Chiefs -9.5  43.5

Chiefs bitter after late loss last week.

Denver almost won @ Bmore...

This might get ugly fast..

Car @ Seahawks -3.5  43.5...

Hawks getting it done...Smith best year by far.

Panthers might get plastered here..

TB @ SF  SF -3.5 37.5  

Brady pulled one outta his ass last night.

Purdy Iowa State QB....takes over..D is the best in NFL

Miami @ Chargers Phins -3  51.5

Another Cyrax Special...Good offenses vs Shitty defenses..

NE @ Zona Pats -1.5

Zona is done..Pats on life support..

Season on the line for the Jones Gang...

Well it's starting point and speaking of points i go for my shots today, dont want no flu for Xmas.

What’s up with these Cyrax Special? 

MOTO:  Master of the Obvious...

@bigred84

 This will most likely result in another train wreck, last week was more like it??

Settle down Tank....

Ravens + 3 all day, Huntley went 27 - 32 - 1 yes it was only for 186 yards but the Ravens have no one to stretch the field. When push come to shove he led a 12 play march down the field and ran in the winning td. He knows the system well, i kinda wish Harbs would let him cook. Getting Ronnie Stanley back is big. Long range forecast is some what nasty weather probably gonna be a slobberknocker game. 

Thank God Red's computer didn't double post

Most disappointing part of the thread is that post 1 didn't duplicate all the way down to post 7. 

Getty   Stop being a Hater......

Sac ...you're next....

New computer at work.....no idea why it stutters....

Getty   Stop being a Hater......

Sac ...you're next....

New computer at work.....no idea why it stutters....

there it is    

https://sports.yahoo.com/titans-fire-general-manager-jon-robinson-after-losing-to-aj-brown-eagles-in-week-13-173103246.html

The Titans have gone at least 9-7 and made the playoffs in four of the past six years since Robinson was hired in 2016.

This is puzzling. Are the Titans a pure fade from here on out?

The master of brevity

What a crazy soccer game between Spain and Morocco. 0-0 after OT, then Spain misses 3 straight penalty kicks and loses. Big upset. 

 I always believe the Titans will suck and then about this time of the year, every year,  I look up and see them with a 2 or 3 game lead in the division. It's a peculiar phenomenon. They're the only one of the 8 teams in an NFL South division with a winning record. 

The 6-6 Buccaneers have a mathematically better chance at winning their division than the 11-1 Eagles. In fact TB would almost be assured the title just by limping home with 2 wins in their last 5 games.

Saw your post in other thread Sac. I agree, and bet the Lions early again.  Got at -1.  I am running with them until the wheels fall off.  Bet Raiders and Chiefs early too, posted Chiefs in other thread.  Chiefs now -9.5.  As far as the greatness that is the Raiders, this is about that time of year when they miss the playoffs by 1 game.  I was the most surprised guy in the room when they handled the Chargers like they did, but not really.  

These are in already:

Lions -1

Chiefs -7.5

Raiders -5.5

Leans:  Ravens, Browns, Jags.

College Hoops today:

Texas -2.5 and ML

Yale +6.5

Sam Houston +9.5 

Maryland +1.5 and ML

Leans: Iona, Oakland, UNCW, Bradley

Triple Sport Weeklong Teaser:

KC Chiefs +0.5(Dec 11)/Oregon State PK(Dec 17)/Bradley +1(Today)

Richardson is not playing in the bowl game for Florida from what I was reading, so Oregon State is super teasable here imo.  The backup on Florida was released from the team for child pornography charges.  There is not a single player on the Florida roster who has attempted a pass all season.  They have a walk on that may be able to play, otherwise it will be a WR or RB convert, run wildcat, etc etc......I put them in a couple open spot teases as well just to have on the bench.  Stalking a few other situations as well for these bowl games.....If your books allow open spots on teases.....not a bad idea......just put them on a couple bets and park 'em......assuming you agree.

I took :

Titans TT over 23 

Bowl game :

Tulane +2.5

Wyoming +1

still pondering the Cyrax Special 

added 

UCF PK

Wake -2.5

leaning notre dame

@Hugh_Jorgan

 U truly are special..

Brevity...

Covers Help  Needs Help....

messaged 7 hrs ago with polite 

instructions.....nobody home....

Rams beat 49ers to the 'Baker Mayfield Warm Body' signing

Just Teasin'

Army/Navy U 38.5

Balt/Pitt U 43

Bengals PK

Jags/Tits O 35.5

Seahawks +2.5

KC/Den U 49

Week 14 banger...

Lions 1H ML(-135) *3.00/2.22

Lions 1H -1(-115) *1.00/.87

Biggest bet of the year so far, so yes I'm laying most of it on the ML in case of a tie. Of all the teams, the Vikings would be one to screw me and it wouldn't make any sense as to how they did it.

This Vikings team is like a damn that holds water for way too long, but when it bursts it blows out. Alla the Cowboys game.

I like the Lions for the full game as well,  but the 1H stats and metrics ring louder.

Last time these teams played in Minnesota, we got a screwed up boxscore(as most Vikings scores are).

Plays: 76 to 67, yards: 416 to 372, t.o.p. 34:04 to 25:56. These all favored the Lions.

What favored the Vikings: Drives: 12 to 13, penalties: 7 to 3, turnovers: 1 to 0, 1st downs from penalties: 3 to 5.

Punts were neutral at 3 to 3.

How the Vikings won despite having an extra drive, but gaining less yards, running less plays, and losing t.o.p. by 9 minutes is absurd. 

Things have changed in the last few weeks. The Vikings haven't changed much, and keep winning games that they should lose. They're banged up at corner, and are down to a 3rd and 4th stringer opposite of Patrick Peterson. Also Anthony Bullard will be out with a biceps injury.

The Lions are playing their best football, after losing some real tight games earlier in the year. Goff is being protected by that o line, and should have guard Evan Brown back. Goff hasn't thrown a pic in his last 4 games. They're 6-2 last 8 where he's thrown 8 td's 1 pic, and sacked 7 times. Their 2 losses in that span was by 4 vs Miami, and 3 to Buffalo. 

For the dorky stuff...this is unreal.

The Vikings are the worst 10-2 team since 1981 by dvoa, and by net yardage, and by +- pt differential. 

Lions defense has faced the hardest schedule per dvoa. Their weighted defensive dvoa is #17. The Vikings defense has faced the #8 hardest schedule. Their weighted defensive dvoa is #20.

Lions offense #13 weighted offense. Vikings #20 weighted offense.

Detroit #9 weighted special teams dvoa. Vikings #21.

Goff #3 dvoa, #6 qbr, #16 ALEX

Cousins #19 dvoa, #21 qbr, #23 ALEX

So why the 1H bet instead of the full game?

In the Vikings last 5 games they are 2-2-1 in the 1H. PF=11.20, PA=14.40 for a -3.20 pt margin.

In the Lions last 5 games they are 3-1-1 in the 1H. PF=14.00, PA=8.60 for a +5.40 pt margin.

In another system I do that puts more weight into last 3 games and home vs road splits, I come up with a score of 11.46 to 14.78. The total is set at 26.5, when I get that close on the total the ats results do well.

Just think if the Jets didn't have a rookie making his first road start last week...5 trips to the redzone and 5 fg's, plus one pick in the game. And they still could of won.

This one better hit, I spent hours on this fucker. Read a whole bunch of team reports as well, too much to mention at this point. Good luck dudes.