Tonight, we finally see a prime time over after 5 weeks of duds. Will these 2 offenses carry on the new trend? Like Sac mentioned Fields was prolly the lone bright spot this weekend for the Bears yet they still can't run the ball and it won't get any easier this week against that Skins front 4. Short week, vanilla playbook and we are in for yet another TNF snooze fest. Luckily my Thursday evenings are loaded up so I won't have to watch.
Bucs at Steelers +8 (43.5)
Why are the oddsmakers continuing to tell us the Bucs are worthy of this many points especially on the road? This is a very similar team to the cowboys right now. Winning in spite of their offense and Brady continues to look old and somewhat uninterested. Problem here is the Steelers offense isn't a threat to put up any amount of points to warrant a threat here. This one should be pretty ugly at Heinz err whatever its called now. Heavy lean to the under.
Bengals at Saints +1.5 (43.5)
This one is interesting. We have a very desperate or should be desperate Bengals team searching for some form of identity. Mixon with one of the worst yards after contact rates in the league. The O-line is still atrocious and Burrow is on his back half the game. They obviously caught lighting in a bottle last year with the Bills Chiefs slobberknocker a week prior and they were able to sneak up on them and get that win. We all know the talent is there but I think Zac Taylor is an idiot and will be their downfall. On the other side, I see the Aints finally realized they have the ultimate Swiss army knife in Taysom and unleashed him ( props to anyone who had the foresight to grab him as your TE in fantasy ) Red Rifle actually looks like a better fit in this offense than Crab Man. They would be better served going with the 2 headed monster moving forward. Superdome is a very difficult place to play but I look for Cincy to eek out a stinker.
Jags at Colts -2 (42)
Saw a side by side stat of our favorite QB Cashew vs Trevor's stats and they were essentially identical. Whatever Jax was drinking early in the season has now soured completely but luckily for them they get to play against Matty Ice with no run game assuming JT is still out. However, this feels like a game on turf where we finally see some points. Lean to the over and Jax.
more..........
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Using current lines.....not openers
TNF
Skins at Bears PK (38)
Tonight, we finally see a prime time over after 5 weeks of duds. Will these 2 offenses carry on the new trend? Like Sac mentioned Fields was prolly the lone bright spot this weekend for the Bears yet they still can't run the ball and it won't get any easier this week against that Skins front 4. Short week, vanilla playbook and we are in for yet another TNF snooze fest. Luckily my Thursday evenings are loaded up so I won't have to watch.
Bucs at Steelers +8 (43.5)
Why are the oddsmakers continuing to tell us the Bucs are worthy of this many points especially on the road? This is a very similar team to the cowboys right now. Winning in spite of their offense and Brady continues to look old and somewhat uninterested. Problem here is the Steelers offense isn't a threat to put up any amount of points to warrant a threat here. This one should be pretty ugly at Heinz err whatever its called now. Heavy lean to the under.
Bengals at Saints +1.5 (43.5)
This one is interesting. We have a very desperate or should be desperate Bengals team searching for some form of identity. Mixon with one of the worst yards after contact rates in the league. The O-line is still atrocious and Burrow is on his back half the game. They obviously caught lighting in a bottle last year with the Bills Chiefs slobberknocker a week prior and they were able to sneak up on them and get that win. We all know the talent is there but I think Zac Taylor is an idiot and will be their downfall. On the other side, I see the Aints finally realized they have the ultimate Swiss army knife in Taysom and unleashed him ( props to anyone who had the foresight to grab him as your TE in fantasy ) Red Rifle actually looks like a better fit in this offense than Crab Man. They would be better served going with the 2 headed monster moving forward. Superdome is a very difficult place to play but I look for Cincy to eek out a stinker.
Jags at Colts -2 (42)
Saw a side by side stat of our favorite QB Cashew vs Trevor's stats and they were essentially identical. Whatever Jax was drinking early in the season has now soured completely but luckily for them they get to play against Matty Ice with no run game assuming JT is still out. However, this feels like a game on turf where we finally see some points. Lean to the over and Jax.
I see this line slowly creeping to a PK before kick. This Pats D is for real and just held the highest scoring offense to 0 on Sunday and now they get a run heavy O to game plan for. Browns almost gifted a win this week by more dipshit analytics that all these young coaches are using like the Bible. Ive been pretty impressed with how balanced both sides have been and much like the Cowboys ( sorry to keep mentioning them ) if they can keep everything afloat until they get their QB1 back, watch out. That division is very much up for grabs. This, to me, comes down to who has the better weapons on the outside and even with Zappe back there the Pats have the better WR's. Lean Pats plus the points.
Jets at Packers -7 (46)
Rough spot for GB here traveling back from London and off a loss in a game they pretty much controlled and even had a chance to win late. Some locker room chatter that irked Rodgers as well. These Jets are finding ways to win and really spreading the ball around. Breece Hall after a pretty quiet week 1-2 is proving he was the proper draft pick. This team will put up points on you and if GB and Rodgers continue to be this vanilla while they "figure each other out" they are gonna get surprised on Sunday. Lean to Jets plus the points.
Ravens at Giants +4.5 (44)
Giants come back down to earth here. hard. Ravens getting healthier and even some questionable CB play the Giants have no WR that threatens you over the top. Should be another heavy does of Saquon and it simply won't be enough. Giants are most likely fat and happy with their overachieving 4-1 record and coming back from London won't help their cause. Ravens should be able to name their score here. Lean Ravens minus the points.
Niners at Falcons +5.5 (43.5)
Losing Mosley hurts that D but its a wagon. Travel though a big concern for anyone looking to back SF off a drubbing of Carolina and thinking this will be a repeat. West coast to east coast, back to west coast, back to east coast def takes a toll and one would think this line would be at least -7 but nope, they dangle a -5.5 out there. Feels like a funky game all around and SF does just enough to get the W. Not sure I can back the Falcons either so will defer to anyone who has an edge here. What happened to Kyle Pitts? Someone send out an APB.
Panthers at Rams -11 (40.5)
Get right game for LA here. I know we get the fired coach angle now that Rhule has been relieved of his duties but simply put the talent isn't there for Carolina. Im not a huge believer in this LA Defense like most of the talking heads but they will look the part this weekend. Stafford will look like the Stafford of last year and this should be a huge confidence boosting game for them only for it to come crashing down the following week. Look ahead is real here so its tough laying the -11 but if I were forced to play it that would be my lean. Also lean to the under.
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Pats at Browns -3 (42.5)
I see this line slowly creeping to a PK before kick. This Pats D is for real and just held the highest scoring offense to 0 on Sunday and now they get a run heavy O to game plan for. Browns almost gifted a win this week by more dipshit analytics that all these young coaches are using like the Bible. Ive been pretty impressed with how balanced both sides have been and much like the Cowboys ( sorry to keep mentioning them ) if they can keep everything afloat until they get their QB1 back, watch out. That division is very much up for grabs. This, to me, comes down to who has the better weapons on the outside and even with Zappe back there the Pats have the better WR's. Lean Pats plus the points.
Jets at Packers -7 (46)
Rough spot for GB here traveling back from London and off a loss in a game they pretty much controlled and even had a chance to win late. Some locker room chatter that irked Rodgers as well. These Jets are finding ways to win and really spreading the ball around. Breece Hall after a pretty quiet week 1-2 is proving he was the proper draft pick. This team will put up points on you and if GB and Rodgers continue to be this vanilla while they "figure each other out" they are gonna get surprised on Sunday. Lean to Jets plus the points.
Ravens at Giants +4.5 (44)
Giants come back down to earth here. hard. Ravens getting healthier and even some questionable CB play the Giants have no WR that threatens you over the top. Should be another heavy does of Saquon and it simply won't be enough. Giants are most likely fat and happy with their overachieving 4-1 record and coming back from London won't help their cause. Ravens should be able to name their score here. Lean Ravens minus the points.
Niners at Falcons +5.5 (43.5)
Losing Mosley hurts that D but its a wagon. Travel though a big concern for anyone looking to back SF off a drubbing of Carolina and thinking this will be a repeat. West coast to east coast, back to west coast, back to east coast def takes a toll and one would think this line would be at least -7 but nope, they dangle a -5.5 out there. Feels like a funky game all around and SF does just enough to get the W. Not sure I can back the Falcons either so will defer to anyone who has an edge here. What happened to Kyle Pitts? Someone send out an APB.
Panthers at Rams -11 (40.5)
Get right game for LA here. I know we get the fired coach angle now that Rhule has been relieved of his duties but simply put the talent isn't there for Carolina. Im not a huge believer in this LA Defense like most of the talking heads but they will look the part this weekend. Stafford will look like the Stafford of last year and this should be a huge confidence boosting game for them only for it to come crashing down the following week. Look ahead is real here so its tough laying the -11 but if I were forced to play it that would be my lean. Also lean to the under.
Points points points. I wish this was a noon kick but its not. If Cards lose this one I believe its the end of the line for KK. I'm talking tarmac firing. at least it should be since they are abysmal to watch. reality is, they look at the standings in their division and still believe its up for grabs so they'll keep him around. Did you know the Cards haven't scored a single point in the first quarter all year? Should be betting that but it will change this week. On the other side, we finally get to see what Kenneth Walker has as a starter. Pick him up in your fantasy leagues if you haven't already. Geno has looked very comfortable in this offense and you think they are missing Russ? doubtful. Ill be on the over here and maybe the pub will get me a better line by kick.
Bills at Chiefs +2.5 (53.5)
The marquee matchup of the week and a replay of one of the craziest games we all watched last year. Chiefs on a short week and once again in control of the division lead thanks to yet another boneheaded late game play call that never stood a chance. The Raiders have the 2nd best kicker in the league and you decide to call a similar play that worked in the first half on 4th down. So, that means it will work again right? dumb. Moving on, a loss here by the Chiefs isn't that devastating because these 2 are already on a collision course to meet again in the playoffs IMO. Lean Bills to continue to show the league who's top dawg.
Cows at Eagles -5 (42)
SNF
A lot of question marks coming into this one. Will Dak play, how healthy is Parsons? How will this defense defend one of the best rushing teams and dual threat QB's in the league? Stafford was a sitting duck last week so Dallas will have an entirely new test on their hands and how will they handle that. Can this Philly team sustain this level of play for yet another game? Did the Cards porous D show the blue print to slow them down or was last week simply one of those weeks? So, I'm obviously biased but this type of football we are playing on the offensive side of the ball is simply not sustainable and could very well be exposed on Sunday. With Dak back, if healthy, and he can be the QB he's shown he can be in years past then this team is for real. I just don't know if this week is the spot to back them even though they are one of the best ATS teams in the league.
MNF
Broncos at Chargers -5.5 (45.5)
Russ is terrible, Herbert is not. I'm tired. that is all.
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continued .......
Cards at SeaDorks +3 (51.5)
Points points points. I wish this was a noon kick but its not. If Cards lose this one I believe its the end of the line for KK. I'm talking tarmac firing. at least it should be since they are abysmal to watch. reality is, they look at the standings in their division and still believe its up for grabs so they'll keep him around. Did you know the Cards haven't scored a single point in the first quarter all year? Should be betting that but it will change this week. On the other side, we finally get to see what Kenneth Walker has as a starter. Pick him up in your fantasy leagues if you haven't already. Geno has looked very comfortable in this offense and you think they are missing Russ? doubtful. Ill be on the over here and maybe the pub will get me a better line by kick.
Bills at Chiefs +2.5 (53.5)
The marquee matchup of the week and a replay of one of the craziest games we all watched last year. Chiefs on a short week and once again in control of the division lead thanks to yet another boneheaded late game play call that never stood a chance. The Raiders have the 2nd best kicker in the league and you decide to call a similar play that worked in the first half on 4th down. So, that means it will work again right? dumb. Moving on, a loss here by the Chiefs isn't that devastating because these 2 are already on a collision course to meet again in the playoffs IMO. Lean Bills to continue to show the league who's top dawg.
Cows at Eagles -5 (42)
SNF
A lot of question marks coming into this one. Will Dak play, how healthy is Parsons? How will this defense defend one of the best rushing teams and dual threat QB's in the league? Stafford was a sitting duck last week so Dallas will have an entirely new test on their hands and how will they handle that. Can this Philly team sustain this level of play for yet another game? Did the Cards porous D show the blue print to slow them down or was last week simply one of those weeks? So, I'm obviously biased but this type of football we are playing on the offensive side of the ball is simply not sustainable and could very well be exposed on Sunday. With Dak back, if healthy, and he can be the QB he's shown he can be in years past then this team is for real. I just don't know if this week is the spot to back them even though they are one of the best ATS teams in the league.
MNF
Broncos at Chargers -5.5 (45.5)
Russ is terrible, Herbert is not. I'm tired. that is all.
Why are the oddsmakers continuing to tell us the Bucs are worthy of this many points especially on the road? This is a very similar team to the cowboys right now. Winning in spite of their offense and Brady continues to look old and somewhat uninterested. Problem here is the Steelers offense isn't a threat to put up any amount of points to warrant a threat here. This one should be pretty ugly at Heinz err whatever its called now. Heavy lean to the under.
Former Steelers Player Ryan Clark was on a national tv show and scorched his old team, saying that every player on the team with the exception of the rookie QB had quit during their game vs the Bills. He even took a shot at his former, and beloved, coach Tomlin. Clark was not alone in his accusation.
Pitt lacks talent on both sides of the ball, but there is nothing that will fire up a team more than challenging their manhood.
Nothing.
Have to love the Steelers in this spot with that many points.
6 straight weeks of good write-ups for the Newsletter
bigreds daddy
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Bucs at Steelers +8 (43.5)
Why are the oddsmakers continuing to tell us the Bucs are worthy of this many points especially on the road? This is a very similar team to the cowboys right now. Winning in spite of their offense and Brady continues to look old and somewhat uninterested. Problem here is the Steelers offense isn't a threat to put up any amount of points to warrant a threat here. This one should be pretty ugly at Heinz err whatever its called now. Heavy lean to the under.
Former Steelers Player Ryan Clark was on a national tv show and scorched his old team, saying that every player on the team with the exception of the rookie QB had quit during their game vs the Bills. He even took a shot at his former, and beloved, coach Tomlin. Clark was not alone in his accusation.
Pitt lacks talent on both sides of the ball, but there is nothing that will fire up a team more than challenging their manhood.
Nothing.
Have to love the Steelers in this spot with that many points.
6 straight weeks of good write-ups for the Newsletter
oddsmakers still gonna give packers all the respect in the world while the jets get none, huh? jets are trending in the right directon. rodgers just isn't the same without a security blanket like adams. in years past, it was cobb, but he's not the same as before. he also had jordy nelson on the field with him. this team looks totally lost and when things don't go rodgers way, he looks like he stops caring more and more throughout the game, just waiting for the clock to run out. he suffers from severe bitch antics. i'll gladly be taking that 7
No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing
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oddsmakers still gonna give packers all the respect in the world while the jets get none, huh? jets are trending in the right directon. rodgers just isn't the same without a security blanket like adams. in years past, it was cobb, but he's not the same as before. he also had jordy nelson on the field with him. this team looks totally lost and when things don't go rodgers way, he looks like he stops caring more and more throughout the game, just waiting for the clock to run out. he suffers from severe bitch antics. i'll gladly be taking that 7
Cincy / Saints Mixon ran hard against the Ravens and looked good.
Actually BigD is right. Mixon is listed as one of the least efficient RBs in the league right now.
Most efficient RBs (min 50 carries) : 1) R. Penny (but broke his leg last week) 2) Aaron Jones 3) Jacobs
Least efficient RBs 1) Mel Gordon 2) Mixon 3) Kamara (obviously Mixon and Kamara are elite talents so expect their numbers to improve as the season goes on)
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Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:
Cincy / Saints Mixon ran hard against the Ravens and looked good.
Actually BigD is right. Mixon is listed as one of the least efficient RBs in the league right now.
Most efficient RBs (min 50 carries) : 1) R. Penny (but broke his leg last week) 2) Aaron Jones 3) Jacobs
Least efficient RBs 1) Mel Gordon 2) Mixon 3) Kamara (obviously Mixon and Kamara are elite talents so expect their numbers to improve as the season goes on)
Other interesting possibly useless nuggets of info
Lamar Jackson holds the NFL record for rushing attempts by a QB with 176. After 5 games, Jalen Hurts is on pace for 231.
Whenever Matt Stafford drops back to pass there's a 58% chance he'll throw to either Kupp or Higbee. In fact Kupp is averaging 2 more targets per game than the NFL's #2 ball hog Justin Jefferson.
Kyler Murray leads the NFL in one category. Passes completed at or behind the line of scrimmage. Over the past 2 games WR Rondale Moore has 10 receptions for 79 yards despite having a -0.4 air yards per catch
Baker Mayfield has the highest number of pressured dropbacks in the league at 45%. The most well protected QB Papa Geno Smith has been pressured only 7% of the time. Let me know when the Seadorks play someone who likes to dial up the pressure.
Ron Rivera has thrown his QB under the bus in a sad desperate attempt to avoid the fact he's a crappy head coach still living on the laurels of one freakish outlier of a season in Carolina. Fortunately it's backfiring on him.
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Other interesting possibly useless nuggets of info
Lamar Jackson holds the NFL record for rushing attempts by a QB with 176. After 5 games, Jalen Hurts is on pace for 231.
Whenever Matt Stafford drops back to pass there's a 58% chance he'll throw to either Kupp or Higbee. In fact Kupp is averaging 2 more targets per game than the NFL's #2 ball hog Justin Jefferson.
Kyler Murray leads the NFL in one category. Passes completed at or behind the line of scrimmage. Over the past 2 games WR Rondale Moore has 10 receptions for 79 yards despite having a -0.4 air yards per catch
Baker Mayfield has the highest number of pressured dropbacks in the league at 45%. The most well protected QB Papa Geno Smith has been pressured only 7% of the time. Let me know when the Seadorks play someone who likes to dial up the pressure.
Ron Rivera has thrown his QB under the bus in a sad desperate attempt to avoid the fact he's a crappy head coach still living on the laurels of one freakish outlier of a season in Carolina. Fortunately it's backfiring on him.
Big D threatening to take the Jags/Colts over. Last week Jacksonville had 422 yards of total offense (136 rush, 286 pass), 83 return yards, and 25 yards gifted from Houston penalties. That's over 500 yards of gross positive yardage. How the hell do you finish with just a pair of field goals? 9 out of 10 times that yardage translates into 20+ points. That was the 1 out of 10 outlier. Indy has got the film on Jags defensive tendencies now and won't get shut out again. Not even close. I like the over too.
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Big D threatening to take the Jags/Colts over. Last week Jacksonville had 422 yards of total offense (136 rush, 286 pass), 83 return yards, and 25 yards gifted from Houston penalties. That's over 500 yards of gross positive yardage. How the hell do you finish with just a pair of field goals? 9 out of 10 times that yardage translates into 20+ points. That was the 1 out of 10 outlier. Indy has got the film on Jags defensive tendencies now and won't get shut out again. Not even close. I like the over too.
Will add one maybe 2 today, leaning Ravens 1H and Chargers 1H. Someone talk me out of it.
The Bears looks too obvious, but obvious has worked for me this year.
Do we "auto bet" the Falcons? 5-0 ats. SF with the #32 sos and massive injuries. But they have done well after their away from home practice sessions in the past.
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NFL 25-14-2 (+12.98)
MLB 4-6-2 (-1.81)
Week 6:
Jags +2.5(-110) *1.10/1.00
Jags ML(+115) *.50/.58
Colts -1.5(+100) *1.00
Colts ML(-125) *.50/.40
Will add one maybe 2 today, leaning Ravens 1H and Chargers 1H. Someone talk me out of it.
The Bears looks too obvious, but obvious has worked for me this year.
Do we "auto bet" the Falcons? 5-0 ats. SF with the #32 sos and massive injuries. But they have done well after their away from home practice sessions in the past.
Will add one maybe 2 today, leaning Ravens 1H and Chargers 1H. Someone talk me out of it.
The Bears looks too obvious, but obvious has worked for me this year.
Do we "auto bet" the Falcons? 5-0 ats. SF with the #32 sos and massive injuries. But they have done well after their away from home practice sessions in the past.
0
NFL 25-14-2 (+12.98)
MLB 4-6-2 (-1.81)
Week 6:
Jags +2.5(-110) *1.10/1.00
Jags ML(+115) *.50/.58
Colts -1.5(+100) *1.00
Colts ML(-125) *.50/.40
Will add one maybe 2 today, leaning Ravens 1H and Chargers 1H. Someone talk me out of it.
The Bears looks too obvious, but obvious has worked for me this year.
Do we "auto bet" the Falcons? 5-0 ats. SF with the #32 sos and massive injuries. But they have done well after their away from home practice sessions in the past.
Huge eagles fan....hurts is bound to get injured at this rate...hoping not but he has taken a beating so far....he got hit 22!!! times the other week...just asking for trouble
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@Getty3
Huge eagles fan....hurts is bound to get injured at this rate...hoping not but he has taken a beating so far....he got hit 22!!! times the other week...just asking for trouble
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Like Sac mentioned Fields was prolly the lone bright spot this weekend for the Bears yet they still can't run the ball and it won't get any easier this week against that Skins front 4. Short week, vanilla playbook and we are in for yet another TNF snooze fest. Luckily my Thursday evenings are loaded up so I won't have to watch.
) Red Rifle actually looks like a better fit in this offense than Crab Man. They would be better served going with the 2 headed monster moving forward. Superdome is a very difficult place to play but I look for Cincy to eek out a stinker. 
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