CD Super Bowl Newsletter

Openers:

LA Rams -4

Total:  50

Rams ML-190

Bengals ML +165

Already hit Bengals ML.   

Cincy OLine was night/day from Tennessee to KC.  Game plan got the ball out quicker and Burrow moved more.   Same thing gonna have to happen here, especially moving up in the pock straight forward with Donald and Miller coming off the edges.   Stafford gonna keep both teams in the game, who do you trust more?   

I also got some units on the Bengals ML+162 

2022  is the year of the Tiger..

The Moon and the Stars are aligned.

One more day until Chinese New Year.

Gong Yi Fat Choy  

Nice hits with the futures Billy 

Just saw the re-play of Maholmes doing the shimmy after 3rd td in 1st half. Now i wonder if in his mind he thought the game was in the bag. 

i would say there was a noticeable difference in body language all along the chiefs sideline in the 2H compared to the 1H 

The first half ending took away there mojo.....played scared...

Not attacking in the red zone late was pathetic play calling by Reid,......

I'll drink to this 

@BWS77

 I got in a texting war between a bunch of friends last night. All of em are on the Rams and no one will change their mind's. My one buddy said that "no one losses to the Jets and goes on to win a SB, this is a known fact"...

I had no clue that he was this dumb till last night, and I've known him for 25 years.

The mains seem to be reflecting the same.

@BWS77

 by the way son the Puppy Bowl is this Sunday. 

Snoop and Martha Stewart coaching.  Wonder what angle chic-cardinals will come up with

I was thinking to myself that there wouldn't be a mental letdown after the Buffalo game since I don't believe in Postseason letdowns, but the physical letdown is entirely possible.   They may very well have blown their load in the 1st half and went on cruise control at halftime, then just couldn't flip the switch on again when they needed it.  The drops are telling, very uncharacteristic.  Mahomes running for his life...  Bengals using the 3.5 man rush was brilliant late.  

You're seeing a lot of people looking at the name of the team.   I mean, should a team that lost twice to the Browns be in the Super Bowl?  Fuck no, but here they are.  They are obviously blind to what Burrow has, he's different.   His ball placement since 2019 at LSU has been nothing short of exquisite.  Dude just has 'it' right now. 

@undermysac

 I dunno man, it's hard to back Cinci, because have you guys ever seen a team be so lucky, 2 games in a row in the playoffs?! I'm asking because I haven't been following the game, for as long as some of you guys have.

So in Tennessee, Burrow gets sacked 9 times, NINE! Yet somehow they manage to win, on their last drive, which was the result of a tipped pick! Tannehill threw 3 picks in the game, and they were all tipped.

Last night in KC, in the 1st half the Chiefs had their way with them, until that dumb decision to not kick the FG and take the points, on the last drive of the half, because Andy Reid wasted a TO, they had their foot on their neck and they sparred me. And in the 2nd half, wtf happened to Mahomes?! Someone find me another game with these splits:

First half: 18 of 21 for 220 yards, 3 TDs, 0 sacks, 149.9 rating

Second half/OT: 8 for 18, 55 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 4 sacks, 12.3 rating

How does this even happen? And even with that horrendous 2nd half, Mahomes still could've won that game on the last drive of the game, instead he got sacked and they had to settle for the FG.

My point is this: Cinci got to this SB by capitalizing on the others team mistakes! Both the Titans and the Chiefs allowed the Bengals to win against them, especially KC with that 2nd half epic implosion, so will their luck run out or go all the way? This is the biggest unknown and how do you cap luck?!

I see 2 major concerns with the Rams: Stafford, for obvious reasons as seen in Tampa and also last night, and McVay, hard to understand his play calling sometimes. The Rams, unlike the Bengals, were in control both of their last games, they were the better team, even last night they should've led the game for longer, but Stafford threw his usual poor passes in open play situations. 

And one more thing, the reason why Burrow didn't get sacked more times is that he scrambled, his protection wasn't that much improved, from the game in Tennessee, so imagine what Donald and Von Miller can do to him, imo these 2 may decide the game, because unfortunately you can't fully trust Stafford, he is a liability.

So does the Bengals luck run out or does it go all the way? Imo they shouldn't have made it this far, the SB was KC - Bills and ironically none of them made it to the actual SB...

burrow has been nothing short of fantasic leading up to this point. the guy is paving the way to be the next brady. he's still got 20 more seasons to go, but he's defying all odds early on. with that being said, and i have been riding this gravy train for a bit now, i think they meet their maker for the super bowl. it's gonna come down to two things in my opinion. the first being the experience. the rams are loaded with veterans who know how to work together in super bowl situations. you won't see them bitching at each other with the score up two possessions about who gets the ball more like the chiefs. the second being the coaching. mcvay had some questionable challenges going down the stretch, but i think it's a mismatch here. let's not forget that prior to the bengals, taylor worked under mcvay as a wr coach for the rams. mcvay should have every receiver covered to the tee given their history together.

the rams shouldn't have the same issues the chiefs have had on d, the difference is night and day when you don't have sorenson and sneed in the secondary. we most likely will never see sorenson in a chiefs uniform again. the bengals were only 1/4 in the red zone against the chiefs, 1/1 against the titans, and 2/5 against the raiders. the rams will have to limit and contain the explosive plays where the bengals are able to convert to td's. the bengals were also living on third and long situations throughout most of the playoffs. over the last three games, they converted just under 50% of their 3rd down situations. where an issue can come up is over the same three game span, the rams have only allowed 18% of third down plays to be converted, and only 38% on the season. zac taylor is going to have to come up with a better game plan early on in their drives to avoid finding themselves in third and long situations. 

debates can be made for both teams, but these are the biggest takeaways that i've noticed. as of now, i'll be laying the points with the rams. let's hear some counters

I think you just answered your own question about them...   they do what a good team does when it matters most.   

Take a look at the Rams 'Luck Factor' too...  

Kyler gifts a TD flailing in the end zone

Avoided the epic choke job in Tampa on a blown coverage by Bucs secondary

Last night, the dropped gift INT and Jimmy G with the desperation flip

Look also at how horrible the Rams coaching was...   The 2 totally misguided challenges.  Whoever gave McVay the info to go through with those shouldn't have a job today.  Them being able to win that game without timeouts is something.  

@BWS77

 A good team at exploiting those mistakes, yes, but not a good enough team to be in control, for most of the game...

I honestly don't like the Bengals, and I know I'm biased and I know why I don't like them: luck. I despise teams, which have egregious luck on their side, because when it matters the most, things go their way. That's why I wont bet the game, since everything points to the Rams, I don't wanna go against luck, because I've rarely ended up on the lucky side of an outcome, hence why I thoroughly despise lucky outcomes.

One more thing occurred to me, as ODB pointed out above, the experience is on the Rams side, which can be a double edged sword. On one hand this is the type of game where experience is paramount, but it also comes with a lot of pressure, on the other hand the least experienced team can approach the game more relaxed, viewing it as an opportunity, as opposed to a must, like the Rams surely do, given that they went all-in this season, to reach this SB, and having given away so many draft picks to build this team... 

Von Miller was the MVP of a SB, my gut tells me he can do it again or Donald can take his place, the key to game will be this 2 headed defensive beast.

Spot on with the pressure stuff...  this team was put together to do this and all the pressure is on them and it's probably gonna be even more of a burden having to do it at home.  Cincy playing with house money, calm and cool.   You can say Cincy got here with luck, but if memory serves, those 3 tipped passes in Tennessee were all contested.   Mahomes INT's were contested.  The Mahomes sacks were from great coverage for 5-7 seconds.   If you want to really nitpick, the Kelce TD where Mahomes scrambled for nearly 9 seconds had a Bengals DL get blocked in the back TWICE.   

We can also say KC was lucky to be in that game if Buffalo didn't choke, that's some luck there too.   

@BWS77

 You can't compare the magnitude of luck, between the Bengals and the Rams.

The Rams were leading 20-3 in Tampa and fumbled the ball at the 1 yard line, when they could've taken the points. The Rams allowed the Bucs to come back, the same way KC allowed the Bengals to come back.

Last night Stafford threw a pick in the end zone at 0-0 in the 1st Q, which was tipped. Rams missed a FG at 7-7 in the 2nd Q. McVay had some dumb calls in the 3d Q, at that 2nd & 1 in 49ers territory, where they went 3rd & 1 and went for it on 4th & 1 and didn't get it + as you said those 2 atrocious challenges.

Anyway, my final point is that the Rams proved they can control a game, they can build solid drives, they can create multiple opportunities for themselves, things we haven't seen from the Bengals, because they mostly exploited the mistakes until now, this is the big difference between these 2 teams.

Good discussion

Yao, I agree that the Bengals have benefited from luck more than the Rams. However, as BWS pointed out, Cinci takes advantage of mistakes and the Rams make mistakes.

I can make an argument for either side, but it's hard to look at the last 6 games of the playoffs and how they all played out and then think the SB won't be another game that comes down to the last play. Just seems like destiny to me.

Are the Rams more talented? Absolutely, and it's not that close.

If this was week 8 of the regular season this line is at least 7.

But this is the 2022 NFL playoffs, where nothing is as it seems

"We can also say KC was lucky to be in that game if Buffalo didn't choke, that's some luck there too."

Not the same type of luck, what about the Bills converting 2 4th downs, when KC was up 26-21, on the same drive nevertheless? What about that TD pass to Davis on 4th & 13 on a busted coverage? You stop them there and it's basically game over for the Bills. What about the go ahead TD to the same Davis, on yet another busted coverage, with 17 seconds to go?

Luck swung between the Bills and the Chiefs in those last 4 minutes, but at least you knew KC had the weapons to respond, hard to say Bills blew it, when it was KC who was in control, until 26-21, having also missed an extra point and a FG up to that point.

I think I run out of ramblings, these are my thoughts, with the limited knowledge I have about the game. Thank you guys for allowing me spew my nonsense here and BOL, if you choose to bet the SB, I will just be rooting for the Rams.