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Euro 2008 part 3 - final round of group games....

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Posted: #126
I like Portugal, Croatia, Holland and Italy.  Portugal v. Holland in the final.


 
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Posted: #127
Well the Brazilian/Argentina game was a little bit sad, Dunga should be fired, right now, seriously. Im sure the Brazilian media will be calling for everything but his hanging in the morning (maybe even that). Brazil opened up a lot of chances in the 1h. Had a few at the end of the 2H, but nothing came of it, 0-0. Refing was a bit sketchy but thats not suprising.
 
Portugal/Germany - I think the fact that Portugal's coach is taking the money (admittingly) and going to Chelsea can be something to worry about for Portoguese backers. Podolski's injury worries me a little bit, and it would suck if he didnt play but I like Germany anyway. I expect a lot of people will be on Portugal today, just like even more people will be on Netherlands Saturday, and Italy Sunday. Might fade the public this round.
 
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Posted: #128
looking forward to hearing everyones picks especially VZ's in this round. the public will be all over the faves, but every 2 seed is a totally live dog. its a whole new tournament now
 
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Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by Zodiac_Killer:

 
 
Portugal/Germany - I think the fact that Portugal's coach is taking the money (admittingly) and going to Chelsea can be something to worry about for Portoguese backers. Podolski's injury worries me a little bit, and it would suck if he didnt play but I like Germany anyway. I expect a lot of people will be on Portugal today, just like even more people will be on Netherlands Saturday, and Italy Sunday. Might fade the public this round.


I like Germany at the Asian handicap, but the price isn't right for me. Unless it gets to +100 I'm leaving it alone. Haven't looked too far ahead but I cannot take Italy. Pirlo and Gattuso are huge losses for them. Haven't seen the prices, but unless there is a massive over-reaction to the suspensions I won't be rushing to back them.

Thabkfully those futures on Russia going through came up
 
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Posted: #130
 
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Posted: #131
THURSDAY:
 
Germany / Portugal:
 
Germany were favorites coming in to the tournament, and looked good in beating Poland 2-0, but have since struggled losing to Croatia and then beating Austria 1-0.  They have looked particularly inept up front, where Gomez has looked terrible, and Klose seems to have taken a vacation.  Their goalscorer Podolski is injured and might play - but will be banged up.
 
Portual won their first two games convincingly, beating the Turks 2-0 and then the Czechs 3-1, and then losing their last game playing all subs to the home side Swiss.  They have played with their usual flair, and their only weakness has seemed to be the unsteady Ricardo in the nets, but they have never really looked to be outmatched with their first team on the pitch.
 
I am going to be on Portugal PK -140 (important - this is a 90 minute bet and if it goes to extra time or PK's I push) - I dont want any part of ET or PK's.  I cant ignore that Germany played on Monday and they have Frings and Podolski questionable - 3 days rest vs a Portugal first team that will have about a full week rest.  Based on recent form, the Germans havent gelled and while -140 is a steep price to pay - I will do it here because Portugal have looked the much more dangerous side when they have the ball - and have at least 5 players that finish.  Germany struggled to finish time and time again against Austria in a must win situation, and I just dont see them breaking down Portugal any better.
 
I wouldnt be surprised to see a draw after 90 minutes, but I would be somewhat surprised to see Germany score enough to win in 90.  Im predicting a 2-0 Portugal win, and have the percentages for Regular time (90 mins) at Portugal 40%, Draw 35%, Germany 25%.  I dont love the fact that Portugal seems to be a public play and an obvious play - but I feel it is well deserved here and it is still at a bettable price.
 
Also, if any game featured goalkeepers that could cost their sides the match - this is it.  Look out for a Lehmann or Ricardo howler that might just decide it - they are both prone to stupid mistakes.

GL
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Posted: #132
Matchbook has "Portugal to win" at +151.
I assume this means within 90 minutes ?? and a tie after 90 minutes is a loss ??
Thanks for the counsel, anyone.
 
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Posted: #133
the thing that scares me is germany can only play better than they have. and the opposite for portugal. i know that doesn't really make sense, but you know what I'm saying.
 
what a fucking game this will be today. this could be the game of the tournament.
 
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Posted: #134
Van: I shot you an email, and Im guessing your laying more juice with the PK rather than Portugal to advance because you want to elimante ET & PK's?
 
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Posted: #135
yeah van is scared of ot and pks and rightfully so. the longer this game stays close the more you gotta like the germans chances.
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by taurus:

Matchbook has "Portugal to win" at +151.
I assume this means within 90 minutes ?? and a tie after 90 minutes is a loss ??
Thanks for the counsel, anyone.

You are correct - it is a 90 minute bet.  MB options for lines really suck for these games.....

You can mix up some draw and some Portugal to get it at a PKem.

For instance:

If you want to bet 100 on Portugal at a 90 min PK........

You would put 31.45 at +218 to draw and 68.45 at +153 for Portugal to win.

This way you are risking 100 and your results are:

1.  Germany win -100

2.  Draw +-0

3.  Portugal win +73.43

Basically, you are betting Portugal PK at -137

GL

 

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Posted: #137
 
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Posted: #138
VanZ, I just put 4 units on group c to win the cup +150 (Holland and Italy)... I really like this bet, I think they will meet in the semi's anyway, and then I can hedge
 
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Posted: #139
wow i coulda gotten way better odds just putting it on italy and holland to win at this point. fuck. oh well.
 
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Posted: #140
I have holland at 14.5 -1.  Im trying not to think about it yet, but I gotta tell you I win a big chunk of dough if that wins - and Im not sure how I will be able to handle a couple of close games.....
 
Italy / spain is a very interesting game.....
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Posted: #141
Hey vanzack do you bet on MLS games too?
 
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Posted: #142
no i dont bet mls at all
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Posted: #143
What about the Total here? I know you think it will be 2-0 but I see goals in this one. thoughts?
 
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Posted: #144
VANZACK- Question regarding exact score bets. I was eyeing Portugal 2-1 exact score at +900. Do you know if this includes penalty kicks or not? ex. Game ends at 1-1 after regualtion and OT, Portugal wins on Pentaly Kicks, would my bet pay??
 
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Posted: #145
vanzack, what do you think about these props?
 
Ronaldo score anytime +175 (2 or more +1200)
Klose anytime +240 (2 or more +1900)
Gomez anytime +330 (2+ +3300)
Pudolski anytime +275 (injured?, 2+ +2200)
Ballack anytime +400 (haha +5000 if he scores 2 or more)
 
 
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Posted: #146

Quote Originally Posted by banans:

VANZACK- Question regarding exact score bets. I was eyeing Portugal 2-1 exact score at +900. Do you know if this includes penalty kicks or not? ex. Game ends at 1-1 after regualtion and OT, Portugal wins on Pentaly Kicks, would my bet pay??

look at your options. if draws (0-0, 1-1, etc) are available, its most definitely just 90 minutes

 
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Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

What about the Total here? I know you think it will be 2-0 but I see goals in this one. thoughts?

My thoughts on the total is that if there is one goal, there is a high chance there will be multiple goals.  I mean that the most unlikely score in my opinion is a 1-0 final for either team.  But I do think 0-0 after 90 is a possibility, as well as a multiple goal game.

So bottom line is that I dont like the total at all.

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Posted: #148
Matthaus - my only idea on those props is that if you lay the odds on no for everyone so far this tournament they have offered - you would be up money.
 
But I dont mess around with those things...
 
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Posted: #149
Thanks Matthaus- I'm an idiot by the way. Realized the answer after I asked the question. I do have 1-1 draw options, so it must be 90 minutes only (excluding OT and PK).
 
 
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Posted: #150
Well i put 1.25 units on both german strikers at +240 and +330. I mean those are pretty damn good odds for both starting strikers.
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