Spoken very wisely numbersbuster , I like to add one more thing, if you bet every day you can never win does not matter how good you are, you need to wait for your games !!!
go back and pick any game you won or lost (assume basketball) - and ask yourself a few questions:
1. What was the opening line
2. How many assists/turnovers did the road team have as well as the home team.
3. What was each team's shooting percentage def.
4. What was the rank and schedule strength of each team
5. Record the results and use it to handicap future games.
6. If you are simply looking at the line and making bets on your internal knowledge - without comparing future games with historical results - you are gambling and based on the Kelly formula - if you have no edge - don't bet.
7. Sounds like you bet based on gut feel - I've been there done that - you can't win long term based on gut feel. Put the time in to come up with something that you believe will result in winners and test it out - if it proves worthy then invest your hard earned dolllars on it.
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