Posted:
#26
Quote Originally Posted by Gochu4u:
beted has the Suns/Queens set @ O/U 206.5
We are wating for ref assignments for that one sir. Good seeing you!
I AM NOW 11-1-1............SUNDAY Picks......................
Posted:
#27
I want you guys to know something that very few people talk about when it comes to NBA betting. The NBA four quarters are actually four different games within a game. People cry fix but what is actually happening is MOTIVATION is changing. Substituions at the beginning of 2nd quarter and 4th is also killing spreads. Ever see how a team is up so big and lose it? OR a team is down but comes back in it? That's what seperates good coaches from bad ones. Phoenix Suns' coach is notorious for leaving starters out for over five minutes in the beginning of 2nd and 4th quarters. MOst of the time, this kills overs. The NBA is all about MOTIVATION. And the man who does the line knows it. That's where he has to advantage over you.
Posted:
#28
People get very worked up over big quarters. When you have a total, you have to understand that the next quarter has nothing to do with the previous one. Sure, it makes life easier to have 65 points in a quarter if you have the over, but most of the time, it will either slow down, or pick back up. I hate it when people come into my thread and say "we got it!" when we know that anything can happen. That is why I need people to bet the same amount as well. Anything can and will happen in basketball.
Ever played a pick up game? Basketball is a game of rythm. The NBA and especialy college, is set up to break rythm's. There are two mandatory timeouts per quarter at least. It's also a very tiring sport. If you let them play, it's easy to be down twenty to a stronger team in the blink of an eye. The NBA knows this, and they know how weak their teams are, so the ref's job is to keep some games 'close". But people confuse this with "fix" rather than "controlled league".
Just my 02 cents.
Posted:
#31
For example
You have over 197 and the score is 90-68 going into the 4th. So you need 40 points to hit your over. Simple, right? Nope. That's not what they're thinking. It's a regular season game, and they just want to hit the mandatory under 9, 6, and finally 3 timeouts to go home and do some coke and strippers. You just needed 40 points. You say "WTF? they just scored 61 in the first! How can this happen!" Well, what happened was the game is over. Motivation has changed. The reason why I took Sac under tonight is because I had a feeling they weren't going to hit 100. You need two to tango for an over 208. Very rarely will you get one huge blowout for the over.
It happens all the time. The dreaded 33 point quarters, the 27 point quarters. Very limited talent, combined with non-competitive games, equals unders. There are only seven teams in the league worthy of an over bet.
Posted:
#32
The college game is worse. Mandatory under 16, under 12, under 8, under 4, combined with six timeouts per team and a halftime, makes it damn near impossible for me to watch the game. I have no idea how one can watch that garbage.
Basketball players are very hard to find. It's a sport based on RYTHM. Any big dumb ass that can block can play football. But only a select few are good at basketball. The league is garbage, but it's perfect for me to make money in it. As a bettor, your worse enemy is PARITY. We love bad teams. Bad teams equal the homeless shelter. Unless of course you bet them on totals. haha
Goodnite everyone!
Posted:
#42
good luck LOTM
I officially hate betting totals
looks good for you guys. My view on this game as I see is that the Knicks will win big likely a 17 to 24 point victory which makes me hesitant in taking the over as I think you mentioned in a previous thread it takes two to tango. Of course though there is the flip side to that bet being the Knicks if they do win by 20+ will likely finish with 130 points so over would still likely hit but Knicks -6.5 looks pretty solid
Posted:
#43
i remember a guy on these forums a year or 2 back called "Brewers7" who had similar ways of looking at totals....
look at the last few matchups........
see what the lines were....see what the totals ended up on...
and then compare them to the total spread offered for the upcoming game....
...most games really are a 50-50 proposition...and you have to rely on luck
but some games stand out like a sore thumb
say for instance, 2 teams play one another, looking at past games the totals were in the 180's/190's and the games went under...
then outta nowhere ..you see a 200+ total......it screams "take the under"......that usually means they know it's going over....
i never really saw much from B7 after that...but those thoughts he presented always stuck with me....
and LOTM is doing similar work ,...based on very similar principles
keep it up man........i love insightful analysis
sometimes bookies just "know" how a game will pan out. ...and if you know how to research a game properly, and crunch the numbers....you can hit at an incredible clip...as your 11-1-1 record attests to...
usually ,..if a line looks off........whether it's ATS or O/U..they are the games to focus on............
hope you can keep the ball rolling..........
but in gambling..what goes up ,..must come down..........
i hope you can buck the trend
look at the last few matchups........
see what the lines were....see what the totals ended up on...
and then compare them to the total spread offered for the upcoming game....
...most games really are a 50-50 proposition...and you have to rely on luck
but some games stand out like a sore thumb
say for instance, 2 teams play one another, looking at past games the totals were in the 180's/190's and the games went under...
then outta nowhere ..you see a 200+ total......it screams "take the under"......that usually means they know it's going over....
i never really saw much from B7 after that...but those thoughts he presented always stuck with me....
and LOTM is doing similar work ,...based on very similar principles
keep it up man........i love insightful analysis
sometimes bookies just "know" how a game will pan out. ...and if you know how to research a game properly, and crunch the numbers....you can hit at an incredible clip...as your 11-1-1 record attests to...
usually ,..if a line looks off........whether it's ATS or O/U..they are the games to focus on............
hope you can keep the ball rolling..........
but in gambling..what goes up ,..must come down..........
i hope you can buck the trend
Posted:
#47
Quote Originally Posted by LOTM:
For example
You have over 197 and the score is 90-68 going into the 4th. So you need 40 points to hit your over. Simple, right? Nope. That's not what they're thinking. It's a regular season game, and they just want to hit the mandatory under 9, 6, and finally 3 timeouts to go home and do some coke and strippers. You just needed 40 points. You say "WTF? they just scored 61 in the first! How can this happen!" Well, what happened was the game is over. Motivation has changed. The reason why I took Sac under tonight is because I had a feeling they weren't going to hit 100. You need two to tango for an over 208. Very rarely will you get one huge blowout for the over.
It happens all the time. The dreaded 33 point quarters, the 27 point quarters. Very limited talent, combined with non-competitive games, equals unders. There are only seven teams in the league worthy of an over bet.
You said Bro, I leaned the hard way! 2H totals are tough to read many times. Like you said, motivation, talent, depth and coaching all come into play. Keep it going Bro.!
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