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LOCK Thread - 02.02.16 - Post Your LOCK

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by FenwayFrank:

New Mexico -3

New Mexico SU 14-1 at THE PIT! Only lost to Wyoming when leading scorer Elijah Brown (avg 20.3) was benched until the 9:00 minute mark of 1st half for missing curfew in previous game. Bad karma and doomed prior to tip off because of this distraction!!  New Mexico has a very balanced attack as two of their top four scorers haven't attempted a 3 ball. Shoot FT's at a 73% clip which can't hurt in tight games. Now they did LOSE to UNLV on the road by 12 but that was in the debut of new coach Todd Simon (UNLV WAS UP FOR THIS GAME).  UNLV has settled since losing 2 of last 3 conference games and are 1-3 SU within conference on the road.  The honeymoon period is done for coach Simon!!  UNLV going down like a three dollar person!!

Awesome writeup Frank!  Just what we are looking for! Now, if the LOCK wins also, its perfect!  GL

 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by chaz_warren:

Providence Friars -7..Like the Friars today as my Lock.

The Friars are 8-2 in the head to head series.
Providence ranks #68 in road offense
DePaul's home defense ranks #221 
Providence's road offense ranking #24.
Depaul's home defense #215
Friars 5-1 S/U last five vs Depaul and better on both sides of the ball,,13-8 ATS this year / Blue demons - 7-12 ATS

 

If I may, also note the Friars are unbeaten at 6-0 SU on the road.

 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


I love the EPL and follow most of the major Euro leagues.  Interestingly enough, I never wagered on soccer until the CBS guys got me into it.  Been a process over the years, but I feel I've been improving steadily, and learned that being selective is key, since there are so many leagues and competitions to pick from.  I'll dabble in a variety of leagues when it comes to wagering, but mostly stick to England (EPL and ECL).

I support Tottenham and anyone playing Arsenal or Man U.  I have a soft spot for AFC Bournemouth, since they were a cash cow last season in the ECL.  I always like to root for most of the newly promoted teams to stay up.  My sports rooting interests have become very fluid over the years, but Spurs are my team.  I hope they can stay up in the top 4, and maybe make a run at it.  Although if City stay healthy, I think they are the team to beat.


I only follow the EPL, but with all the leagues and all the opportunities, I am CERTAIN there are great LOCKS every day in Euro soccer.  I just only follow the EPL, and I am a City guy.  I fell like City wins only if Kompany can come back and be 100% fit.  They are an elite team with him, but without him they are barely .500.  Check the stats when he plays and when he doesn't.  Its incredible.  Makes you wonder if he should win the Ballon d'Or!

 
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Posted: #29
Not an expert in any particular sports. From the bay so I tend to watch a lot more west coast games.

Tonight's lock
Wolves -4.5
Wolves record isn't scary but they've got talent all over the place. Hobert is awful and I think Townes destroys down low. Lakers are just terrible. I try not to pick against home teams but the plays too juicy.
That's my play. Thank you so much for starting this board and thank you to everyone who's sharing their 'locks'.

Let's feast boys!
 
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Posted: #30
Big fan of this thread Holmey. Below is my lock. 

CLEMSON -1.5

Clemson is coming off a loss to a tough Florida St team and looking to get back on track. If you look at the Louisville game last night, you will understand why teams are extra motivated off a loss. Blossomgame has been super efficient in his last 4 games, averaging 20ppg and 7rbs and Roper is a very quick lefty guard with a nice jumper..if he gets hot, it will be bad news for WF. 

Clemsons defense is ranked #14 against Wake Forests #125 ranked offense. Clemson has been terrific ATS (8-1) and I believe they run away with this one big. 
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by USC_Holmey:

I only follow the EPL, but with all the leagues and all the opportunities, I am CERTAIN there are great LOCKS every day in Euro soccer.  I just only follow the EPL, and I am a City guy.  I fell like City wins only if Kompany can come back and be 100% fit.  They are an elite team with him, but without him they are barely .500.  Check the stats when he plays and when he doesn't.  Its incredible.  Makes you wonder if he should win the Ballon d'Or!


Yeah, if he comes back 100% and Silva/Aguero stay healthy and in form, look out.  When all 3 play, they are 4W 0L and 10-0 GF/GA.  He's played in 10 matches by my count total (including those 4) and they are 8W - 2D - 0L, and both draws were 0-0 draws with NO Silva and NO Aguero.  Sick. They've only allowed 2 goals in those 10 matches with him int there (and scored 22, and that includes two 0's.)  

They should feast on Sunderland today.  I'm just making sure Aguero and Silva are in there.  If so, I'll post some more numbers along the lines of those above and lock it my play.  


 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


Yeah, if he comes back 100% and Silva/Aguero stay healthy and in form, look out.  When all 3 play, they are 4W 0L and 10-0 GF/GA.  He's played in 10 matches by my count total (including those 4) and they are 8W - 2D - 0L, and both draws were 0-0 draws with NO Silva and NO Aguero.  Sick. They've only allowed 2 goals in those 10 matches with him int there (and scored 22, and that includes two 0's.)  

They should feast on Sunderland today.  I'm just making sure Aguero and Silva are in there.  If so, I'll post some more numbers along the lines of those above and lock it my play.  


Yep.  When Kompany plays, they are impenetrable.  They give up 0.2 GPG, and when he doesn't, its like 1.4.  But, yes, they HAVE to keep Aguero healthy too.  Not enough depth up front.  If Aguero and Kompany are healthy, they should win.  De Bruyne being out is tough, but they have just a ton of depth at midfield, so that is where they can fill in OK.  Sad that with Pep coming in that Yaya will probably be on his way out.  He's been my favorite player since he joined City, and my daughter has worn out her Yaya jersey over the last 3+ years.  I hope there is a way that can work it out, but I doubt it.

What game are you looking at to LOCK?

 
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Posted: #33
Is there a way to "Like" or rate a post on Covers?  I liked to use that on CBS so people knew that their LOCK was on the spreadsheet.  If I 5-starred your post on CBS, it meant your LOCK post was tracked.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by USC_Holmey:

Yep.  When Kompany plays, they are impenetrable.  They give up 0.2 GPG, and when he doesn't, its like 1.4.  But, yes, they HAVE to keep Aguero healthy too.  Not enough depth up front.  If Aguero and Kompany are healthy, they should win.  De Bruyne being out is tough, but they have just a ton of depth at midfield, so that is where they can fill in OK.  Sad that with Pep coming in that Yaya will probably be on his way out.  He's been my favorite player since he joined City, and my daughter has worn out her Yaya jersey over the last 3+ years.  I hope there is a way that can work it out, but I doubt it.

What game are you looking at to LOCK?


That one, but probably just the TT OV 2.  I see a 2-0 or 2-1 game min from them.  Against the top 5 scoring teams in the league, Sunderland is giving up 3.67 goals a game.  
 
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Posted: #35
Ah.  GL then, bk.  City could throw any lineup out there, especially with the game vs. Leicester on Sat, so its a good call to wait for the lineups.  If they rest any of the real difference-makers, it would probably matter.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

My 1st Lock:

Clemson -1


Nice write-up, Bubba.

I agree with all the points that you've made and had made a thread last night just on Clemson, as that game grabbed my attention right away, and after capping on it, I was convinced that Clemson was worthy of a lock play.

You've done gone and done stole my lock, man, lol.

Holmey ~ Can one put up duplicate locks? I was going to put in my first lock on Clemson -1.
 
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Posted: #37
Yep, Mozart.  think its LOCK-worthy, then go for it.  If thread gets going like it was on CBS, then we will sometimes have 8, 9, or even 12 guys LOCK-ing the same team.  It sometimes becomes a little problematic when we get what we used to call "Pile-on LOCKS", where newbs would often mirror the previously-posted LOCKS of some of the Top LOCK-ers, but we are nowhere near that point yet.  If 6 or more people want to LOCK Clemson today, then as long as they all have their own, original writeup, then its great.  If there are 3 or 4 compelling writeups on one side, then that might be enough to convince someone to tail a LOCK, and that is the whole point of the thread!  GL on whatever you choose to do.....
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

My 1st Lock:Clemson -1 Better than Wake Forest on both sides of the ball statistically (Adjusted D and O per 100 possessions).  Have been outstanding ATS in conference at 8-1 (Outright wins vs Duke and Pitt).  If this turns out to be a  close game Clemson shoots great from the line and most importantly this team has a lot of fight and are very scrappy.  Every loose ball you see at least two Tigers on the floor.


Let's not forget outright wins over Louisville and Miami too...
 
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Posted: #39
Maybe jus try quoting and saying that you got it? Idk of a way to rate but this is a great idea. Progressive!!!
 
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Posted: #40

Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Flamethrower:

Maybe jus try quoting and saying that you got it? Idk of a way to rate but this is a great idea. Progressive!!!

Thanks, Dr.  I don't want to bog down the thread with replying to every LOCK, especially if gets going full speed like in the past.

Stop by with a LOCK if you ever have one!  GL......

 
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Posted: #41
Old School......Is "Jose_Reyes" who we used to call Camby?
 
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Posted: #42
LOCK ALERT!  UMASS +3.  Im gonna roll with an ugly one for my first lock but for some good reason.  First, Rhode Island with be extremely short handed on the road against a conference rival.  Jarvis Garrett (leading scorer) and Kuran Iverson (leading rebounder) are both OUT after suffering casualties at vs St Joes.  (Jaw and concussion respectively).  UMASS has suffered through an ugly seven game losing streak but Rhode Island comes in extremely shorthanded as a road favorite and has not won a game in conference on the road thus far.   Good bet that Dan Hurley once again loses it on the sideline, especially without a point guard attempting to run his offense.
 
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Posted: #43
Iowa St. -4.5

West Virginia has lost 3 out of the last 5 games.  Lost their last game to Florida by 17 points 71-88. Jonathan Holton won't be playing.

Cyclones have won 4 straight conference games including a back-to-back wins of Kansas and Oklahoma. Iowa St. is 10-1 on their home court and have one of the best homefield  advantage in the country. The Cyclones also have a legit shot at winning the Big 12 regular season title.

Iowa St is a dominant 49-19 ATS in their last 68 home games as favorites of 6 or less and 11-3 ATS  after playing their previous game on the road.  Cyclones are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games.  

So my "lock" or best pick for today is Iowa St. -4.5
 
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Posted: #44
I am not the most articulate, however, in detail my LOCK for today is Georgia Tech at home plus the points, my site is at +4 as of now, i like them to win the game outright but am taking the 4 as Duke has struggled of late. Georgia Tech's best attribute is Duke's biggest issue with the loss of Senior Forward Amile Jefferson, as Duke's "tough guy" and rebounder. I see Georgia Tech at home killing Duke on the boards and this gives them a significant advantage with second chance opportunities and shutting down Duke's 2nd chance points. Duke's only shot to win and cover in my opinion would be to shoot the ball lights out but if it didn't have DUKE on the front of their jerseys Georgia Tech would be favored at home. 

Give me Georgia Tech @ home plus 4 as my LOCK for today.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by crownpeach:

LOCK ALERT!  UMASS +3.  Im gonna roll with an ugly one for my first lock but for some good reason.  First, Rhode Island with be extremely short handed on the road against a conference rival.  Jarvis Garrett (leading scorer) and Kuran Iverson (leading rebounder) are both OUT after suffering casualties at vs St Joes.  (Jaw and concussion respectively).  UMASS has suffered through an ugly seven game losing streak but Rhode Island comes in extremely shorthanded as a road favorite and has not won a game in conference on the road thus far.   Good bet that Dan Hurley once again loses it on the sideline, especially without a point guard attempting to run his offense.

I was wondering why this line went from 5 down to 3...being from MASS I know UMass is God horrible!!   BOL 
 
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Posted: #46
Hey guys!  Great LOCK posts!  Keep 'em coming everyone! (but remember you get a max of 4 LOCKS per week )
 
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Posted: #47
Appreciate the discussion about the LOCKS too.  The whole point here is to help each other out, and even if you don't agree with a LOCK, you can still make a tangible point that may sway someone one way or another.  The goal is to make this a place where people can come and find several LOCKS to tail every day, and every piece of information, advice, and opinion can factor a person's decision on whether to hit "Submit" or not.  As long as it is respectful and from a place of trying to help out, bring on all comments!
 
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Posted: #48
Western Michigan +6.5

It falls just outside of a Kenpom play, but Toledo has only one win at home since starting conference play and dropped the last two.  
Wilder for WMI went off in one of their match-ups last year as a FR.  Will expect a strong game from him.
Expecting a close game between two teams that do not want to be 2nd to last in Mac West.
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by chaz_warren:

Providence Friars -7..Like the Friars today as my Lock.

The Friars are 8-2 in the head to head series.
Providence ranks #68 in road offense
DePaul's home defense ranks #221 
Providence's road offense ranking #24.
Depaul's home defense #215
Friars 5-1 S/U last five vs Depaul and better on both sides of the ball,,13-8 ATS this year / Blue demons - 7-12 ATS


Hey Chaz!! I am a PC Grad and go to a handful of games every year. When looking at PC just look at the other teams "big men". 6'8" and above give them trouble!! Marquette has two decent bigs (loss). Xavier two decent bigs (lost) and Seton Hall one decent big (loss). They play teams like Villanova well because their not big, 6'8" or smaller...Just some food for thought when looking at the Friars!!
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by USC_Holmey:

Appreciate the discussion about the LOCKS too.  The whole point here is to help each other out, and even if you don't agree with a LOCK, you can still make a tangible point that may sway someone one way or another.  The goal is to make this a place where people can come and find several LOCKS to tail every day, and every piece of information, advice, and opinion can factor a person's decision on whether to hit "Submit" or not.  As long as it is respectful and from a place of trying to help out, bring on all comments!


This is great.  Covers forum is pretty much a cesspool.  Its like watching a Beavis and Butthead marathon, you just feel dumb afterwards.  Keep this going
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