Posted:
#1
RARELY do I post 2 games in a week. But this one is too good to leave on the table. Why? A streak of 129 years waits to put to rest. You can't walk away from that. You're great, great grandchildren won't even see this angle with this team. But it's right in front of you.
I absolutely LOVE the "Pandora's box of Shame opening after a a Century plus" angle coupled with a team of pride with an nearly unparalleled history and tradition.
Last week, Nebraska did EVERYTHING it could to lose up 31-21 with just under 2 minutes left.
'Everything possible' as in having a 98%+ chance of winning the game:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/nebraskas-win-probability-in-disappointing-loss-to-northwestern-is-hilarious/ar-BBOmm8z?li=BBnba9I
Can "98% chance of winning" games be lost? Of course.
But when 129 years of infamy is on the line (an 0-5 start never occurred in NEB's history) losing is not an option.
And somehow that is exactly what NEB did against a NW team with absolutely no run game.
Well NEB is a school where the fans, the alumni, the student body and the players and coaches themselves will settle for nothing less than to right this awful wrong, hopefully never to be revisited.
Simply put: Throw all your metrics out the window on this one.
You cannot quantify the amount of effort NEB will put into this game to end this ignominious streak.
And I think that effort will be there tenfold.
Last week they did everything I thought they would do:
Come out like a house of fire, battle through the second half to put it away and then incredibly, have it snatched from you in the final seconds. The worst possible
Simply put, the books were DEAD wrong about this game.
They opened at -9 and it was bet down to -3.5, an almost unprecedented drop without a notable injury, especially when in the single digit spreads (Bama jumping from -25 to -32 does not compare as an example as the upper sphere of spreads are settled in garbage time and not truly quantifiable).
Here the NEB +9 hit, +8 hit, +7 hit, +6 hit, +5 hit, +4 hit and +3.5 hit.
Translation: the books took a major as* kicking on this game because their metrics saw NW as a superior team (even with their leading rushed retiring after 3 games!) simply because NEB was winless. And they dropped the line like an anvil into ocean waters and STILL paid the price even when it hit rock bottom.
Well NEB is still winless.
And the books will pay again. Because this number has a chance to have the doors blown off it.
NEB will go for a "Leave no doubt" win so the fans don't get restless and add to their angst.
It will be a party in NEB this weekend. As big as a 1-5 party can be!
The books metrics yield a very appealing NEB -4. I wouldn't even tease this line up for Minnesota because I'd be so afraid of a NEB blowout here.
The pick: Nebraska to cover and send the fans home happy and give Scott Frost a press conference where he doesn't look like Michael Spinks on the canvas after Mike Tyson uppercut.
NEBRASKA -4 over Minnesota
0
mah man Scalabrine in the PB *Ugh 
Hot Forum Topics
