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NBA MON 031609 early thoughts - value hunting

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Back to work Monday.  No number set for this game yet but I have a very viable buy-in number @193.  This is a very realistic number that the books could release.  I'm thinking even a higher published number.  Give it to me and I will buy the under @ 193+

Portland at Memphis 
 
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thunder +6,5
 
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just a thought raps just got their 1st taste of a win
 
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Quote Originally Posted by ashdogs:

thunder +6,5


Axp's threads are about discussing O/U's (and more specifically, UNDERS) only.
 
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Ax,
 
Here is some data on that game (Port at Mem).
vs. the Total
Team        
  < 170 170-174.5 175-179.5 180-184.5
POR 0-0 1-0 2-2 4-3
MEM 0-0 0-0 1-1 1-1
  185-189.5 190-194.5 195-199.5 200+
POR 5-2 8-10 4-11 6-5
MEM 5-4 10-10 7-9 7-8


 
 
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   Portland NBA
Average		 Memphis
  Offense Defense   Offense Defense

Points
1st Quarter
2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter
4th Quarter

 99.1
24.4
24.2
24.5
25.6		 95.2
24.6
23.9
22.9
23.1		 99.8
25.0
25.0
24.5
24.6		 93.4
22.9
23.5
23.9
22.6		 99.8
26.1
23.6
25.1
23.9
Avg Margin 3.9      -6.4
 
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Thanks Miami, good start to some research!
 
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AX ... Already locked into the 189 1/2 under in the Sa / OKC game tomorrow ... but  number is tight ( I get 184 ) ... I see Durant being held in check and SA dictating the tempo ... interesting to note that OKC is 13-20 O/U at home.
 
Looks like we all had a great Sunday ... you got 'em all buzzing ... I love it !!!  
 
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189 opener for portland/ memphis

191.5 spurs/OKC

184.5  nawlins/ houston

210  njn/denver

 
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spurs/okc looks delish.

ax, did you take a look at nawlins/houston yet? i put in 1/3th unit early on over 182, would love your take on it...
 
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Quote Originally Posted by chump:

AX ... Already locked into the 189 1/2 under in the Sa / OKC game tomorrow ... but  number is tight ( I get 184 ) ... I see Durant being held in check and SA dictating the tempo ... interesting to note that OKC is 13-20 O/U at home.
 
Looks like we all had a great Sunday ... you got 'em all buzzing ... I love it !!!  

That's EXACTLY the number I have and the reason I haven't locked in is my 3 possesion rule.  The O/U number you mention is even more compelling when you throw SAS as the other team.

We did have a nice Sunday pal.  I can't believe how a simple thread about the Gladiators, Romans, and goats turned into an Ides of March orgy of information...I too love it Chump!
 
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Quote Originally Posted by proguy747:

189 opener for portland/ memphis

191.5 spurs/OKC

184.5  nawlins/ houston

210  njn/denver


PG, who's got these numbers?
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Turc:

spurs/okc looks delish.

ax, did you take a look at nawlins/houston yet? i put in 1/3th unit early on over 182, would love your take on it...

This is too funny Turc...I didn't even look at this game because you had mentioned it earlier and If you were going to call this play, I didn't want to step on your toes...  I'll take a look pal.
 
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vegas insider published these as opening numbers.  Not sure on the books though.
 
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sportsbook has houson at 182
 
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Quote Originally Posted by chump:

AX ... Already locked into the 189 1/2 under in the Sa / OKC game tomorrow ... but  number is tight ( I get 184 ) ... I see Durant being held in check and SA dictating the tempo ... interesting to note that OKC is 13-20 O/U at home.
 
Looks like we all had a great Sunday ... you got 'em all buzzing ... I love it !!!  


Be careful if you're basing OKC's performance at all on recent results. They're a hundred times better defensively without Durant in the lineup (but really only ten times the team overall without him).

He scores points yet doesn't actually care about playing the game of basketball. He would be in heaven on a Donnie Nelson team.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


This is too funny Turc...I didn't even look at this game because you had mentioned it earlier and If you were going to call this play, I didn't want to step on your toes...  I'll take a look pal.


we share the same goal of making money bro, don't let my babbling hold you back.

i take pride in doing my own capping but that doesn't mean i dont like to read others' opinion
 
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Quote Originally Posted by proguy747:

vegas insider published these as opening numbers.  Not sure on the books though.

I'm hoping offshore numbers are going to be a little more attractive
 
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Whats going on Ax...Back to reality after a heavy night of drinking and smoking ridiculous...Didnt even make it to the phone today to cakll my local to place bets but hell i would have done shit today....But looking to following your play tomorrow....BOL BRO
 
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FATDAN KUSH UP IN THE AIR MY MAIN MAN
 
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Posted: #21
i can get 189 right now at loagans on the Sanantonio game. should I take it?
 
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Posted: #22
hey ax.. been reading a lot of your post lately..
 
great info man..
 
if im not mistaken i read that NBA isnt even really your sport.. lol
 
but yet... YOU KILL IT.. HAHAHA
 
please tell me BASEBALL is your specialty.. i can not wait until the season gets going..
 
GO SOX..
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(WHITE SOX) LMAO
 
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Quote Originally Posted by jlippens:



Be careful if you're basing OKC's performance at all on recent results. They're a hundred times better defensively without Durant in the lineup (but really only ten times the team overall without him).

He scores points yet doesn't actually care about playing the game of basketball. He would be in heaven on a Donnie Nelson team.

Durant is somewhat a popinjay ... he likes to hear himself talk and loves to watch himself on ESPN highlights !!!

 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Turc:



we share the same goal of making money bro, don't let my babbling hold you back.

i take pride in doing my own capping but that doesn't mean i dont like to read others' opinion

Well, I initially thought that this was an overs play after seeing the number but both times this year these two have met has gone under the number with an avg total of 182 and covering the under by 13 points.

NO this year when the number is less than 185 O/U 4-8 and again avg line @183 and covers the under by 3.  Take this spot to NO at home and the O/U is 3-3 avg total 184 and under covers by 2

HOU this year when the number is less than 185  O/U 8-8 with the avg total @181.5 and over covers by 3.  In 2009, O/U 2-4 avg line is 182 and over covers by 3.  Take this spot on the road and the O/U is 6-5 avg line 182 and over covers by 3.

HOU on the road this year (2009) vs good teams .600+ (O/U 1-3)
NOH at home this year (2009) vs good teams .600+ (O/U 2-3)

may have to go to the stats and situational on this one...


 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by MIAMI_MONEY:

   Portland NBA
Average		 Memphis
  Offense Defense   Offense Defense

Points
1st Quarter
2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter
4th Quarter

 99.1
24.4
24.2
24.5
25.6		 95.2
24.6
23.9
22.9
23.1		 99.8
25.0
25.0
24.5
24.6		 93.4
22.9
23.5
23.9
22.6		 99.8
26.1
23.6
25.1
23.9
Avg Margin 3.9      -6.4

 

 

MIAMI.. Where do you get you STATS from if you dont mind me askin.. i love how it this does all the math for you with all the avgs and margins

 

thanx ahead of time

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