NBA & NCAA Season Long Hoops Chat - Hosted by The Peoples Champ, Featuring Expert BigD

TRENDS BY GAME NUMBER

Three of every four home teams win opening game. Home teams have gone 30-10 SU & 21-19 ATS over the last fve seasons. Upsets occur in Game 1’s with lines of -7.5 or less. Of the last 19 frst-round Game 1’s with home favorites of 8 points or more, there has only been one upset. However, in Game 1’s with home favorites of 7.5 points or fewer, hosts are only 7-9 SU & 6-10 ATS over the L4 playoff seasons. 

Opening game home losers are not a good Game 2 bet. Contrary to popular “ying-and-yang” bettors’ beliefs, home teams that lost in Game 1 of a frst-round series are not a good bet in Game 2 either, as they are just 6-4 SU & 3-6-1 ATS since ’13.

The Best Game 3 home teams are those that split their first two games Game 3 home teams that split their frst two games on the road are 8-4 SU & 7-5 ATS since 2013, while those that were either up 2-0 or down 2-0 are collectively just 11-27 SU & 12-15-1 ATS in that same span. 

Game 4 games most often go to the team

looking to even the series. An interesting trend fnds that teams that are down 2-1 in a frst-round series are on an 18-7 SU & 17-7-1 ATS run in Game 4’s.

Game 5’s lean to a road team wager. Game 5’s tend to be tight, as home teams, while 19-11 SU, are just 11-18-1 ATS over the L5

playoff seasons. Those home teams attempting to close out a series in Game 5 are just 2-5-1 ATS in their L8.

Game 6’s are road domination. Road teams in NBA frst-round Game 6’s are16-8 SU & 18-6 ATS in the last fve seasons. Defense is usually the key, as they are holding home teams to just 92.8 PPG, and have gone UNDER the total in 17 of those 24 contests.

Road teams in this scenario looking to close out a series are 10-4 SU & ATS.

Game 7’s are a toss up?

Every fan loves a big Game 7, and NBA fans should even more, as the frst-round Game 7’s are not automatic for hosts. In fact, home teams are 7-3 SU & 4-6 ATS in their L10.

TRENDS BY SEED NUMBER

#1 seeds are fantastic when underrated. #1 seeds when in the small favorite (-2.5 or less) or underdog role are 6-2 SU & ATS since 2013 in the frst round of the playoffs. They are also 7-1 UNDER the total in those games while allowing just 94.5 PPG. Similarly, #1 seeds are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their L7 frst-round games when trailing in a series.

#1 seeds close out series...period

Top-seeded teams are on an 8-game winning streak in closeout frst-round playoff games, going 7-1 ATS in the process.

#2 seeds have been crazy good as bigger chalk. #2 seeded teams are on a strong run of 32-5 SU & 24-13 ATS when favored by 4.5 points or more. #2 seeds start fast. #2 seeded teams are on a run of 18-2 SU & 13-7 ATS in the frst two games of frst-round series over the last fve years.

#3 seeds’ totals dichotomy is interesting. #3 seeds have trended OVER the total (27-16) the last fve years as favorites, but UNDER the total (15-4) as underdogs. #3 seeds struggle in closeout games but thrive when trailing #3 seeds boast an 8-5 outright record in closeout games but they are just 4-9 ATS in those contests. That said, #3 seeds are 9-2 SU & 6-4-1 ATS when trailing in a frst-round series. #3 seeds bounce back on the road after losses. Third-seeded teams are on a run of 7-1 SU & ATS on the road after losing the prior game in a frst-round series.

#4 seeds have been brutal in games 3 & 4. Fourth-seeded teams have struggled with a 4-16 SU & 6-14 ATS record in games 3 & 4 of the frst-round series. #4 seeds are simply a bad bet lately. Other than in the role of favorites of 6 points or more (8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS L10), #4 seeds have been a terrible wager the last fve years, going 14-34 SU & 16-31-1 ATS in all other line scenarios. #4 seeds have tended to stack losses Among the many scenarios in which #4 seeds in the NBA playoffs have struggled lately, bouncing back from losses is near the top. They are just 9-19 SU & ATS since 2013 in the game following a loss.

*guard (typo error)