NFL Week 8

21-9-2 YTD

a few games i like this week:

Miami +1 - still dont believe Buffalo should be a road favorite in their division...this line stinks to high heaven and everyone knows it and people are piling on buffalo like they are running the K Gun. Sagarin has this line at miami -1.5 without HFA.

math models

Saints +3 - Brees will throw all day on that secondary. Saints need to come with the same gameplan they did vs minny to force Rivers to beat them. Payton is a good enough coach for that. Does anyone know the field conditions this week in London? weather, soccer use, etc...thanks. SD should never be laying any chalk outside of Qualcomm

Texans -9 - a gross amount of chalk but im willing to lay it on a very underrated offense...schaub, johnson, slaton, daniels, walter...very dangerous. cincy is worse than kc or detroit with fitzpatrick at QB.i saw it first hand when they played the Jets, they are awful...and amazingly enough the public seems to think Houston should not be laying 9. they were up 21-0 last week and could have put up 60. det scored on a 96 yd TD and a 54 yd FG, both abnormalities to make the score much closer than what it was. wont happen this week

Tenn -4 on MNF - this line should be 10. i would lay at least 7 in this spot if not more. best running team in the league, best o and d line in the league. colts are last in running and have two rookies on the o line. fisher knows dungy. colts do not do well playing from behind or facing 80/20 running type teams. i could go on and on...people are betting on perception that the colts are the colts of old. they are not and are far from it. their time has passed for now...tennessee's coming out party is monday night

dont like much else...not playing against arizona b/c i would have to lay points with delhomme...no thanks

dallas -1 intrigues me. its as if the oddsmakers know the public likes to beat a dead horse so when they could have made dallas -3, they make them -1 and the public lines up to take tampa

i hate to use the term public...lets call it popular thought or conventional wisdom..public is shorter

Totally agree with Miami, way too many people on the Bills.

Don't want to touch the Saints/Chargers game and the Texans has been looking like a stronger play as every day passes. I may look into that one.

Love the Titans, waiting for Monday.

I'm really thinking about backing the Cowboys here. Why I exactly don't know but everybody is jumping on TB now and I figure if Dallas doesn't get it done this weekend at home they aren't making the playoffs.

Always enjoy your insight on NFL KOAJ

if dallas doesnt win this weekend, they have NYG next week...the downward spiral will be complete if they lose 4 straight

king - i cant back car or cle this weekend...hate the matchups

I secured Tenn -3 Sunday.

should be a slopfest at the meadowlands

havent seen the weather yet for london...45 is my number also...very high total

titan65 is a very smart guy

Nice record by the way (don't care much about those to be honest when it comes to discussing games, but that's pretty gaudy). 

its been a good year hutch...no complaints. haven't deviated from my approach at all this year...just gotten smarter from last year and not forced anything. i really need to think its better than a 50/50 shot for me to play it

im in a survivor also...will be on the jets this week most likely

my choices are:

jets
philly
tenn
NE

i hate waiting for monday night...btw the jets and philly. falcons are a live dog...want to part of going against them and i dont trust philly so ill be on the jets

even better PJ

iron_mike - the line is probably right...usually you get "public" money flocking to dallas but they are a wounded soldier so you see the reverse effect...making the line smaller and having "public" money still to against dallas

usually you get extra points going against dallas this week you get it for going with them

strange times

Heres a little article about some Saints players getting busted for some positive drug tests. Not sure if it affects this weekends game.

https://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/8705732?MSNHPHMA

I'm gonna be on the Eagles, roughing up Matty Ice, and of course Miami.

Love the MNF under. finally an under to dig your teeth into.

And I forgot about the Steelers.

How often does the public ever back Tampa, and they are backing them IN Dallas against the biggest public team in the league?


Hope you go undefeated this week KOAJ as I am on many of those myself.

Disgusting record.

KOAJ what do you think about the Giants this week? Overall I think both teams are even in almost every area and the -3 is the standard home line but it seems funny how after two weeks of playing crappy pass rushes that people forget just how bad their offensive line is, and that Ben holds onto the ball too long. I think the Giants have a really big edge in this department.

andar - thats what threw me as well...i obviously know teams and players etc but i really try and understand the line and the story it tells

i cant believe that someone looks at Sagarin, finds the difference, adds HFA and voila its done...there's psychology involved, some mindfuck going on

The rule is play Tampa at home and avoid/fade on the road. If not for a dumb penalty by the Bears they would be 0-3 on the roa and here are the yard totals they have given up in their three road games: 438, 405, 333. Yikes!