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FIT410s

Banned

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 897

Posted: Feb. 1, 2010 - 2:52 AM ET #401

got memphis for +2, small play as i hate to bet against the lakers

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FIT410s

Banned

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 897

Posted: Feb. 1, 2010 - 2:52 AM ET #402

got memphis for +2, small play as i hate to bet against the lakers

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mischkin04

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 1728

Posted: Feb. 1, 2010 - 2:59 AM ET #403

Quote Originally Posted by FIT410s:

Pitt

Do you ever consider earth rotation and magnetic pull to determine picks?

I've heard others say they only have influence when the moon is in the 7th house.

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ironchef69

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 169

Posted: Feb. 1, 2010 - 2:59 AM ET #404

great write up

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pittviper

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 334

Posted: Feb. 1, 2010 - 3:21 AM ET #405

Why Memphis?

I like Memphis to beat the Lakers in what should a close back and forth game for a majority of the game. My line for this game accounting both teams and not not accounting for outside factors like, recent results and fatigue, is LA Lakers -2. As for outside factors: this is the final game of an eight game road trip for the Lakers. They won five of the seven previous road games, including winning their last four in a row. In their previous game (LAST NIGHT) they hung on to beat the Boston Celtics by one point. In this game they led by twelve early, but looked sluggish at times and allowed Boston to get back into this game. It looks as though the fatigue is getting to them, and this will be their third road game in four nights. Kobe Bryant is listed as probable, but definitely not 100% healthy.

Memphis has had the hot hand the second half of this month and are 6-3 since January 15th. They are currently only one game out of 8th playoff spot in the West. They are 17-6 at home this season, and did not have a game yesterday .. and should be rested and ready to go for this game, looking to avenge two straight losses. These teams met earlier in the season where lakers won by double digits, but that game was in Los Angeles and Memphis was not as well rounded into form as they are now. Lakers also were not finishing an 8 game road trip looking forward to going home. Expect a big night from all three Gasol, Randolph and Rudy Gay. Memphis can keep up with the Lakers scoring (averaging the same amount of points per game) and with the Lakers being tired on the end of a long road trip, this is their game to be won.

This line opened at -2.5 and sharp money quickly came in on Memphis, moving the line to +2 and +1.5 at most books. Like I said earlier if you have +1.5 or +2 I suggest you buy a half point, in case of a Kobe buzzer beater.

End Result: I see Memphis being up a 3-5 points with a minute to play in the 4th quarter and then whatever happens from there, happens .. you never know with Kobe on the court. If Lakers do win, I see it being a buzzer beater to win by 1 or 2. Two buzzer beaters in a row for him? I think the Lakers fall short and that Memphis is definitely the side to be on.

Why Iona?

Canisius goes on the road to play league rival Iona. I had Canisius earlier in the week (at PK) when they played at home to Niagara, with that wager winning. Canisius let a big lead slip away and needed overtime to cement the win. All season Canisius has been known in their league for inconsistency. Win one, lose one. Win one, lose one. With that said, their record this season is a not very surprising 11-11. Teams in this league, the MAAC, and other small name leagues are very home and away. Meaning they all play with heart and purpose at home and all struggle to get it going on the road. Intimidation and unfamiliarity is the main reason for this for the young college players. The best players in the country are able to deal with it as they are accustomed to it, where as players in worse leagues are not able too as much (though there are a few exceptions). I really except Canisius to struggle, tomorrow night against a strong defensive and very hot Iona team.

Iona has won their past seven games, four at home and three on the road. Iona is one of the only bright parts of an almost otherwise terrible conference. My line says, once again not including outside factors, Iona -11. Iona is 16-6 on the season and 8-3 in league play, with only one team having a better record. The only thing in Canisius' favor in this mis-match is the fact that Iona plays Siena, in their next game, four days from today. When asked about that prior to their 16th win the other night, Iona guard Jermel Jenkins said:

"Last year it was tough to get wins, but now we're all one year older and we work harder. You always have to have confidence in yourself and confidence in your team. The key for us is that we never look ahead. We keep our mind only on our next game."

Iona doesn't look forward, but I am sure they look backwards. Looking backwards, like I said they've had seven straight wins .. but the game sparking that seven game winning streak was a 77-65 road loss on the road in Canisius (as 1 point favorites). They will definitely be looking to show Canisius that they are a different team than the one they played a few weeks ago, at home tonight. The -9.5 line, compared to the -1 line in their last matchup.

Iona has the 40th ranked defense in the country. In their last matchup Iona allowed Canisius too much room to get good three pointers off and got into foul trouble early. This will be a different tonight.

Most of the money coming in on tomorrows college games will be on the Texas/Oklahoma state match up. I leaned to OK State +2.5, but Iona is a much better selection. With the majority of bets being on that game, the remainder of the college games have very soft lines. Iona -9.5 is the softest in my opinion, this line is pillow soft. haha. The books wan't 50-50 money and they should get that on this game. Amongst the other big spread games Canisius looks the best to the public as they won in their last game and they are only single digit underdogs. While other cappers are

going to see how well Iona is doing lately and bet on them even

though it is close to a double digit favourite .. because of the high number, lots will be weary though. Leaving close to 50/50 action .. so the books win, and so do we with Iona.

Prediction: Look for Canisius to go on long cold streaks throughout the game. I expect them to score between 40 and 50 points, with Iona scoring 60+. Iona by 15+.

BOL
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