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Sat 9/29 NJPORKY's 2H NCAA System Plays

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Prospect
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Posts: 324
Posted: #951
Beavers looking liking Wisky coming out flat in the 2H
 
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Posted: #952
Quote Originally Posted by NJPorky:

 

Oregon St @ Arizona
Full game odds were Arizona -3 and 58
At the half, 17-7 Oregon St
2H lines should be Arizona -13 and 34
2H lines are Arizona -3 and 28
Thus we have
Oregon St +3 2H as a play

I don't understand this system of yours. Whole game, Arizona favoured 3; how do you expect them to be favour 13 for second half? I have never seen a line like that for any sports. If you said the line should be 5 or 6, then I could understand where you're coming from. But, 13?
 
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Posted: #953
Porky: sorry i look at a wrong team. i look at SDSU @ Freshno St , hahah.  Btw, juice is -130 is too much.  i have juice only -105.  wanna get hook up, let me know.
 
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Posted: #954
This always seems to happen to any system when it attracts too much attention.  You don't think the books read these forums??
 
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Posted: #955
less than 4 minutes in TD San Diego ST...
 
Prospect
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Posted: #956
stop overthinking the points, vegas super simulation pc is willing to set 2h at 30+, someone there also approved it, the most likely simulated scenario is a number around that spread. It may hit it may not, just because something hit the over at ht doesnt mean the rest will be scoreless, nor does it mean it will continue, its a gamble, pick a side and enjoy the ride. no point 2nd guess porky's selection.


 
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Posted: #957
Quote Originally Posted by kake7:


Yey Manass how's your knee ?? good to see U around!
hey man! thanks for asking...I kept it wrapped for a couple of weeks and just walked for a couple more weeks.......so far, so good. The less knives in my body, the better.
 
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Posted: #958
I'm not paying -130 juice...people who are haating trying to say the juice is kilkling you with all these plays and I was just making a point even if you were paying ridiculous juice you still profit...
 
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Posted: #959
Quote Originally Posted by NJPorky:

less than 4 minutes in TD San Diego ST...
Tailed you on the over, and both TT over for 1K a piece...let's hope you're right
 
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Posted: #960
@liontri. arizona is -3 to win the game. they need to score 13 pts or more in 2nd half to cover -3, so -13 2nd half is correct. 
 
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Posted: #961
Anyone have a link to the Fresno St. game?
 
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Posted: #962
 
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Posted: #963
Making a pick based on a "system" or "simulations" is flat out retarded.  I had az big 2nd half based on the fact they're at home and been moving the ball really well.  Also when teams are up or down by a certain margin the play calling becomes more or less aggressive.  For az to lose by More then 10 points at home to an equally matched team is not very likely.  
 
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Posted: #964
Lol
All about the chase
 
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Posted: #965
Quote Originally Posted by BigWaveDave:

This always seems to happen to any system when it attracts too much attention.  You don't think the books read these forums??

You think the lines have been different than what they would have been because of this system?? 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #966
Anything for Oregon wash.
 
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Posted: #967
I doubt books change lines cause a thread has 39 pages lmao
All about the chase
 
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Posted: #968
Oregon @ Washington St
Full game odds were Oregon -31 and 73
At the half, 23-19 regon
2H lines should be Oregon -27 and 31
2H lines areOregon -14 and 35.5
Thus we have
Washington St +14 2H as a play
 
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Posted: #969
 
Legend
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Posted: #970
 
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Posted: #971
Your system suck
 
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Posted: #972
Quote Originally Posted by giancarlo12:

@liontri. arizona is -3 to win the game. they need to score 13 pts or more in 2nd half to cover -3, so -13 2nd half is correct. 
I understand that completely, mate. But, if a team is favoured by 3, and are behind at half time, not a single book will make that team a 13 points favourite. But, what do I know, right? They might win when favoured by 3 and lost if favoured by 13?
 
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Posted: #973
Quote Originally Posted by jaime2309:

I doubt books change lines cause a thread has 39 pages lmao

 
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Posted: #974
Thanks Porky (and others who filled in), been an interesting day, looking forward to doing this again tomorrow

cheers!

 
 
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Posts: 119
Posted: #975
Thanks Porky! I will see you tomorrow!

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