WEEK 15 NFL

Giants +4(-115) *1.80/1.50

Giants ML(+165) *.50/.83

San Fran -3.5(-115) *2.30/2.00

San Fran -2(-110) *3.30/3.00

San Fran -3(+110) *1.00/1.10

Will add up record after work. GL

Giants ....are big Giant fans....

SFran....Who wants to win this game....

No idea..

few things

1) Cleveland is 9-4 with a point differential of -20.  Atlanta is 4-9 with a point differential of +6.

2) Since 1990 NFL favorites of 17 or more are 80-5 S/U and a dead even 42-42-1 ATS.

3) Last 10 years, a dog of 6 or more coming off a S/U win as a dog of 6 or more is 3-52 S/U and 13-41-1 ATS (fade Philly)

4) Last 5 years, December divisional games in either the NFC North or the AFC West have gone 76% and 72% respectively to the under. (This week applies to LV/SD and CHI/MNN)

5) Last 3 years in December Giants have won 62.5% ATS (tied for 2nd best) while the Browns are among the league's worst at 40% ATS.

The game last night had me .....On to the Jags....

@bigred84

 You stay up past 8pm?   

What a huge letdown spot for the Crabcakes coming up. Unfortunately Jax is in no position to take advantage of it. Shrimps will toy with them but probably not cover the spread much like the Packers did to the Jags a few weeks ago. 

Last night's game was epic entertainment. Very unusual for Ravens games to be fun to watch. 

Hey Franko  ....9-10.....Unless the Ravens are on.....I do work ....

Getty settle down....If Jackson doesnt get cramps they win by DD's.....Browns D is trash...

Jimmy Smith got hurt early 3rd ...#33  was garbage...O/U  Sunday 46  to 48 in a few hours....might hit 60.....

Was eyeing Philly all ready, the spread is telling for sure. How many yards did Jalen pass for? Jesus, beat the Saints su and now catch the same exact spread vs the Cardinals...

BTW, don't let TW know that you look at trends. FWIW, I only post/use trends that I find myself and do all the leg work. If I think there's substance behind them. The "after Ravens games" trend I believe I conjured on my own. Both Red and Biscuit or any astute football observer can see the toll it takes to play those guys. From physical, mental, and preparation for that triple option. 

If you have the means Getty, how do teams do the game after scoring zero offensive TD's? The Niners go from WFT who are beasts, to the Cowboys who really don't know how to tackle, or do anything well in particular. I think Shanahan can name his score by playing average football, even if the motivation isn't there.

Cashew is back for the Getty's, any spark possible? Great moustache. 

50-55 (+13.42) YTD

7-9 (-5.07) last week

The total between Chicago and Minny is 47. Last time they met the total was 44, and 32 points were scored. This tells me that the Bears are the team who will be scoring this time. That +3(+105) has value.

Last time Foles played, he was fuckin awful, 108 yards. The Bears had 41 rushing yards. It was the game where Bill Lazor called plays for the first time this year. And, before the bye week. Nagy isn't the sharpest tool in the shed. The O line was in a bad way with Rashaad Coward playing RT and Mustipher out. Mustipher came back after the bye vs GB and started at Center, which moved Whitehair to Guard, and bumped Ifedi over to RT.

The Bears have now had the same starting 5 offensive line combination in 3 straight games, and Bill Lazor calling plays in 4 straight. Mustipher in particular has stood out. This 320 lb undrafted rookie from Notre Dame has been pushing people around, and Whitehair has done better at the Guard position. Something scouts have been saying since day 1 about him. That's why the Bears initially had James Daniels at center but he tore his pec earlier this year. Also, Alex Bars has played at guard next to Mustipher during this stretch. He was teammates with him at ND and they both started for 2 years. The familiarity has been evident.

Looking at the Bears 6 game losing streak, it was a gauntlet(minus Detroit). I blame Nagy for losing that one. In a game that they were in control of the entire way until the very end, clock management/play calling was questionable. So... @Rams, Saints(went to OT lost by 3), @Titans, Vikings, @Packers.

Trubisky started vs GB in week 12 after an 8 week layoff, and obtaining an unfortunate shoulder injury in week 8. He looked ok at times but struggled, otr under Bill Lazor for the first time. This was also the first game with the new O line combination. His stat line, 56.5% comp, 74.7 QBR, 5.26 YPA, 3 TD's, 2 INT's.

In his last 2 games he's been lights out. 74.63% comp, 117.4 QBR, 7.97 YPA, 4 TD's, O INT's. You can't tell me that he isn't feeling good after beating DeSean Watson in the fashion that he did, when all he has heard for 3 years is that the Bears picked the wrong guy in the draft. This statement IS TRUE, but put yourself in his shoes, he's feeling pretty fuckin good after that win.

What have the Vikings done since that Bears game? They went 2-2. Losing to the Cowboys. Losing to a Bucs team in a 1-3 game skid prior. Beating the Jaguars in overtime. And beating the Panthers who are currently 1-7 in their last 8 games.

I'll keep saying it, Dalvin Cook is getting cooked by his coaches. Don't get me wrong, the dude is phenomenal. But backs do not last in this league(Derrick Henry the lone exception) and Dalvin is a guy with an injury history so it's only a matter of time. If you remember the game vs the Bears, they held him in check until Aikem Hicks went out in the 3rd quarter. Cook has had 206 touches since week 8 after coming off a groin injury. That's averaging 29.5 touches per game. He's young at 23 so his prime years are right now. Maybe he can hold strong who knows.

Kirk Cousins is now 3-7 when throwing the ball 25 or more times this year. I feel that the Bears will continue to stone wall Dalvin Cook as they have in his career: 2.84 ypc, 1 TD, 2 fumbles. And that should put Captain Kirk into throwing mode.

Justin Jefferson scares the shit out of me. He is damn good and torched the Bears last time out. Bears Nickel Corner Buster Skrine is awful in coverage, and gets burned by anyone. Good thing for the Bears is that he missed the last game due to concussion. Duke Shelley made the first start of his career last week at Nickel and looked decent playing 80% of the defensive snaps. And "decent" is a significant upgrade over Skrine. Fwiw, Skine is ranked 52.3 by pff, and Shelley is 64.7. He will get tested vs Jefferson and Thielen.

SRS has the Bears at +0.37, Vikings at -1.46

Sagarin has the Bears 18.82, Vikings at 18.61

SOS Bears #14, Vikings #22

Both teams are 5-7 su&ats

55% of the public is on the Vikings. Give me the Bears +3(+105) *2/2.10

When that hook shows up, I may double down if the price is right. Good Luck

I am going to pass this week and the next.

"Seems the only way to make money here is to steal it ."  Einstein ref of roulette wheel.

Brown's game last night wow I mean wow....

I am also looking at the Eagles but waiting until it hit 7. I’m already on Chiefs-3.

a side?   your account hacked?

Man...you are really upset with that trends comment ?

No

It's AZ or no play imo Cyrax. I'm not ready to back Philly just off of 1 good game

Browns now 4.5.....

Just for you. Teams since 2019 after playing the Ravens. These are pure points, I didn't include defensive or ST scores.

15-11 SU, 11-15 ATS

If those teams were favored following a Ravens game:

10-4 SU, 4-10 ATS, PS=23.64 PA=21.35

AFC North Teams after a Ravens game:

3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS, PS=19.22, PA=24.55

That Browns and Ravens game was beyond intense. Physically and mentally draining. The Gmen looked worse than anyone on Sunday, let people hammer Cleveland to no end until Sunday night. Getty touched on the Browns pt differential. Pro Football Reference agrees. Expected wins is 6.1, losses 6.9. Cleveland's SOS is #30, Giants SOS is #13.

We'll see  

nice info...im drained still....

oooppss. .. I meant I got the Chiefs/ Saints Over 51.5. 

So Jason Garrett is checking out for the weekend with a touch of the covid. Giants interim OC will be Freddie Kitchens. How ironic.

Yea just read that about Garrett 

Bears ML(+150) *.75/1.13

David Montgomery O82 Rush(+125) *1/1.25

In 12 starts this year, he's gone over this total only 4 times. Most recently he hit 103 on 11 carries vs GB, 72 on 17 vs Detroit, and 113 on 11 vs Houston. He's had only 52 touches in the last 3 games, a relatively light load. With 2 weeks rest prior.

The only worry is the Nagy factor. The guy persists on throwing more often, even if rushing is the engine that makes the offense go. Nagy and Doug Pederson have the same tendencies when it comes to this. Both Andy Reid guys. But I think he's given more leash to Bill Lazor recently.

Btw, I sold 10 yards for the price. The actual line is 72(-119)

Good Luck