Who’s Bator On?

Anyone know? Or does he mind making a special appearance and telling all the degens 

I like everything about the Baltimore Ravens this week except............except..........aargh, I just can't bet on an NFL team in either a conference championship game or a Super Bowl that won their previous playoff game by 20+ points (easy blowout) and is now facing a team that barely advanced themselves (winning by 1-3 points). We had this situation come up in last year's Super Bowl that pitted the Eagles off a 31-7 win over the Niners vs. the Chiefs who barely got past the Bengals 23-20. Can any database specialists in our far flung Covers community give us some ATS results for the situation I described? It seems the team that got severely tested always seems to prevail in a matchup vs. a team that dominated.

It was this sticking point that held me back earlier this week from betting on the Ravens -3.5 -110 and also the Ravens -2.5 -110 in the 1st half. 

@MrBator

 Good Post on 1st H Ravens success earlier 

RAVENS dominate from Get Go 

@MrBator

Great Angle

Go KC ML

Gonna' throw you a nasty curveball on this game.  Any home fav in the playoffs w/a total less than 47 & less than 15 wins, teams previous opponent had 0 red-zones made, current opponent was not a dog of +3 or more 2 games back:

KillerSports.com

0-2 s/u & ats

'01 Steelers -9, lost s/u 17-24 & '02 Eagles -3', lost s/u 10-27...both their opp's won the SB (KC)

I don't see how one could go wrong by betting on the Ravens in the 1st half. We know by now that the Ravens - for whatever reasons - have not been sharp in 1st halves that follow a bye week. That has now been the case for years (the fake 2020 season excluded, as always). So, if you...

1) ...throw out the two games that preceded bye weeks this season (vs. the Rams in Week 14 and last week vs. the Texans)

2) ...throw out the first three weeks of the season

3) ...and throw out the meaningless regular season finale in which Lamar Jackson and other starters did not participate

...the Ravens went a perfect 12-0 SU & ATS in 1st halves this season. Seems too good to be true that they were only -2.5 -110 for a day and a half earlier this week, but they were.

Never mind who they played in those 12 games or where the games were played, just behold these 1st half scores that the Ravens recorded...

21-3

10-3

18-3

28-0

14-7

17-3

17-9

21-10

10-3

10-0

16-12

28-13

The query:

PO = 1 and p:PO = 1 and op:PO = 1 and p:margin > 19.5 and op:W and op:margin < 3.5

In the playoffs when both teams are coming off playoff games, teams that won by 20+ points are just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS vs. teams that won by just 1 to 3 points.

Mr. Bator's hypothesis is correct; however the sample size is quite small.  Home favorites are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS; that sample size is really tiny.

That pitch bounced before reaching home plate, deflected off the catcher's glove and bonked the umpire in the face mask, knocking him to the ground in a daze. I'm sorry but I got nothing out of that backfitted trend you presented.

Thank you, DogbiteWilliams. How many years back did you go?

Alrighty then...here comes an 80-yard TD bomb.  Wildcard CC road teams with a negative ats margin average vs opponent w/a positive ats margin average of more than +6:

KillerSports.com

3-0 s/u, 3-0 ats & 0-3 o/u

All 3 since '07

All 3 went on to win the SB

KC+4', KC +175 m/l & Under 44'

Riderx, now that's the kind of stat that gives me further pause about this game. I'm not in the habit of betting on teams that have been dominating games when facing a team that's been struggling to win games.

Their ATS margin is -0.1 lol I mean cmon now. So if it was 0.0 they wouldn’t win the Super Bowl? Lol this team is not winning a fucking Super Bowl sorry. 

Okay, I see you went as far back as the 2002 season. I'm surprised that for the next dozen seasons after that one, this situation didn't come up at all.

Interesting finds. Those trends point to the chiefs. If one is to take the Ravens, ML would be the proper move. However, this Ravens team does feel like it can blast through any trend. Ultimately, still undecided on this matchup 

I here ya' man.  I'm not a service or a pro gambler but I've been doing this for decades & have definitely earned my stripes.  I don't mind sharing winning systems because the ultimate goal is to beat the man.  I'll go a step further on that system.  If their opp just has a positive ats margin average & team has less than 14 wins & total is more than 38:

KillerSports.com

11-0 ats

This idiot is why I don't post in this forum.

The greater the sample size, the more reliable any system, method or technique is and the more opportunities will pop up in the future.  Good luck on Sunday.

Don't PAST performances Predict future results???

Love Baltimore getting out to an Early lead and displaying their Defensive Dominance through entire game 

The trash part of his handle is so true.

1)  Away dogs in the second or third  round off an away win of less than 5 points have gone 16-9 ATS (+1.76), although surprisingly only 6-19 straight up (-5.40).

playoffs = 1 and p:AW and AD and playoffs=1 and pp:playoffs and p:margin<5

2). Home favorites in this round off a win where they beat the pointspread the previous game by more than 10 points have gone 3-7 ATS (-3.15), 6-4 straight up (+3.20)

playoffs = 1 and p:W and HF and p:playoffs=1 and pp:playoffs and p:ats margin>10 and p:site=home

3)  Playoff away dogs off a playoff away win of four or less points, playing a team that won by 17 or more points have gone 6-3 ATS (+2.00), 3-6 straight up (-5.11)....those teams off a close win performed better off an away win more so than off a home win.  This has gone 2-1 in the conference finals, though one of those against-the-spread wins was a loss by four points.

playoffs = 1 and p:W and AD and playoffs=1 and p:margin<5 and op:margin>17 and p:site