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I have a question about luck in Tx Hold em!!!!!!!!!!

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
a lot of luck involved....Depends what buy in you are playing at...the lower you go the more donks you have playing with you
 
Captain
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Posted: #27
Calling Yang Out for Playing 2/5 NL??
Try Sharkscoping Chris Moneymaker (Money800) and you will see a Former WSOP Main Even Champ playing 11 Dollar Turbo's on Stars..But hey To Each Their Own
 
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Posted: #28
Some responses to everyone.
 
joe hachem has turned out to be a very good player
 
it was very funny to see a great like scotty nguyen blow off all his chips like an amateur when getting so close to the final table and always yelling at them things like, "Don't mess with me baby!"
 
You definitely need luck to win a bick tournament, with the amount of people involved.  Yang made many stupid plays throughout.  If you guys remember, he should have been eliminated on the first play making a donkey move pushing all in with ace high against pocket 8's and getting the ace on the river.
 
 
I definitely agree too with others who have said that pros rarely put up their own money.  They are sponsored by others, and most of them are broke or go broke often.  But they have GREAT talent to win, which is why they have a line of sponsors.  I remember one episode of high stakes poker, where helmuth and negrenau said that Ivey needs to make 3 million a year just to break even!!
 
Also, these guys are nuts.  I remember esfendiari won 300,000 in high stakes, came back an hour later saying he lost it all in craps...lol
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Godfather16:

the guys that have won the main event have played well but have had some luck along the way. in the case of J Gold he was playing stuff like 2-5 and flopping straights, he had just an unbelievable run and then controlled the table too. And these guys catch all of the breaks, win the coin flips and also lay some bad beats on some fuckers too.


I agree 100%.  I have watched J Gold play numerous times in numerous tournaments.  He really does play the biggest bull shit hands and gets lucky on the river.  IMO some of the hands he played were ridiculous and if it weren't for luck, he had no shot in hell to make it that far.  But he did what he did with his luck to gain the chip lead to control the table and IMO that is what took him to win the final table. I agree with usctrojans, he is AVERAGE at best.  He made some of the dumbest moves and got lucky   I am still in shock that that bastard pushed his luck that much and actually won


The only 3 players I'd really say are "top" would be Negreanu, Hachem, and K. Tran. 
 
Captain
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Posted: #30
in the Main event Gold was playing shit hands like 3-4 off and flopping the nuts almost every time, or 6 - 9 and flopping 3 9's, etc. Didn't see him rivering too many hands, he also had Aa and KK way more times than average, just went on perhaps the greatest "heater" ever seen in poker, then again anyone who has won the main event latey had to have an incredible string of luck while also playing solidly too.
 
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Posted: #31
Mostly luck?  No way. Hold 'em is a game of true skill. The skill being the ability to read people, their reactions, tells, betting patterns, etc. Also, the ability to bluff, slow play, and ultimately deceive your opponent. Of course luck comes into play here and there, and it feels great to suit up on the river, etc. The majority of success in Hold 'em comes from skill and patience. Knowing when to play and how to set it up. Probably the best and most strategic game of poker that exists.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #32
Someone made the comment that "Luck evens out in the long run."

I disagree with this statement relative to poker (I am referring to luck as winning a hand after trailing when all the money goes in)

We have all seen the situation a million times where player 1 moves in with AK and player 2 calls with AQ and sucks out- Q, flush, straight, whatever.  Or a player moves in on a rag flop with a pocket pair and gets called by two overs, which end up hitting on turn or river.

The weaker players call more frequently when they are behind which naturally gives them more chances to suck out- my definition of "getting lucky."

Because of this kind of luck, it does make it very tough for an advanced player to survive a field of that size.  Loose calls by losing hands on the flop that turn into winning hands by the river are going to happen a lot, especially in the early stages of a large tournament.  The benefactor will almost always be the less "skilled" player.

The strategy that I believe most advanced players execute early in tournaments is:

1. Win as many pots as possible without showing down
2. Only call all ins when you have monster hands

A very good player can exploit his opponents on the thousands of small pots and dead pots that go un-televised.   If a player takes advantage of these opportunities as well as catches a few real hands along the way, they can chip up to a point where suckouts, hopefully, will not cripple their stacks.


 
Prospect
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Posted: #33
My short version of answer... i very roughly estimate luck as about 1/3 of the game.... but that percentage diminishes if a player is able to grow their chip stack to, say, twice the average chip stack or more
 
Rookie
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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by afrye:

Someone made the comment that "Luck evens out in the long run."

I disagree with this statement relative to poker (I am referring to luck as winning a hand after trailing when all the money goes in)

We have all seen the situation a million times where player 1 moves in with AK and player 2 calls with AQ and sucks out- Q, flush, straight, whatever.  Or a player moves in on a rag flop with a pocket pair and gets called by two overs, which end up hitting on turn or river.

You have to factor in all the times when AK holds up against AQ. Winning this 3 times out of 4 is the luck evening itself out.

 

 

 
All-Star
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Posted: #35
It is almost all luck.

Suppose you have 2000 people in a tourney, and 1900 are average and 100 are the best players in the world.  If the 1900 agree to go all-in every hand until there is only 1 guy left, the 1 guy will have so many chips he can't possibly lose to any of the 100 with skill.  The WSOP Main Event isn't exactly like this, but the I think the principle still holds.  Basically, you have a bunch of jackasses throwing their chips into the middle, and one lucky SOB walking away with a mountain of chips.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #36
i dont remember which pro said it but he said ' Luck lets you win in the short term for one tourney skill lets you when over the long time over your career' i have to agree with that cuz there are alot of people you see win a tourney the barley here from them again while there are some you see all the time at final tables
 
 
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Posted: #37
Good thread guys.
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