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#1
I have yet to find any sportsbooks offering odds for the 2018 Midterms so hypothetically as of right now what would you predict the odds would be in the House and Senate?
For me I would set the line at - 2500 GOP for the Senate. Even in a worst case scenario where both Flake and Heller go down, Democrats are stretched too thin and have way too many Trump states to defend to flip that 3rd seat and not lose any seats of their own. As of right now I definately see McCaskill, Donnerly and Manchin going down and possibly even Heidkampt and Tester. Also Dems have almost no shot at taking the next most vulnerable GOP seat, Ted Cruz's. This is the ultimate of longshots.
In the House the Dems have much more of a chance, Speaker Ryan has hitched his wagons to Trump full bore and is deeply unpopular. When Trump went behind Congress back and cut a deal with Dems Ryan got all the blame from the Conservative base. Add in Bannon's Civil War against the Establishment and Ryan should be in a world of hurt. Look for a ton of primary challenges next year. But even with all that the GOP has a built in inherent advantage with gerrymandered districts that lean heavily Republican. The Democrats would need a massive amount of no shows on election day to flip these seats. Even with Trump's deep unpopularity and Congress inaction 23 seats might just be too high a hill to climb. Especially given how unpopular the Democrats are as well. I see Dems making decent gains in the mid teens but not enough.
For me I would set the line at - 2500 GOP for the Senate. Even in a worst case scenario where both Flake and Heller go down, Democrats are stretched too thin and have way too many Trump states to defend to flip that 3rd seat and not lose any seats of their own. As of right now I definately see McCaskill, Donnerly and Manchin going down and possibly even Heidkampt and Tester. Also Dems have almost no shot at taking the next most vulnerable GOP seat, Ted Cruz's. This is the ultimate of longshots.
In the House the Dems have much more of a chance, Speaker Ryan has hitched his wagons to Trump full bore and is deeply unpopular. When Trump went behind Congress back and cut a deal with Dems Ryan got all the blame from the Conservative base. Add in Bannon's Civil War against the Establishment and Ryan should be in a world of hurt. Look for a ton of primary challenges next year. But even with all that the GOP has a built in inherent advantage with gerrymandered districts that lean heavily Republican. The Democrats would need a massive amount of no shows on election day to flip these seats. Even with Trump's deep unpopularity and Congress inaction 23 seats might just be too high a hill to climb. Especially given how unpopular the Democrats are as well. I see Dems making decent gains in the mid teens but not enough.
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