Posted:
#1
Guys - the lines have shifted dramatically in the Colorado US Senate Race. Democrat Mark Udall is now +110 to win on 5 Dimes. Absolutely amazing and if you like money get in on that. I only wish my limit was higher.
Let's look at the polling numbers. Right now Real Clear Politics has it at Gardner (GOP Candidate) at a .8% advantage.
Let's see how that translates to past years:
-2012 US President - Obama +1.5%; Actual Obama +5.4%
-2010 US Senate - Buck (GOP) + 3.0%; Actual Bennet (Dem) +.9%
-2010 Governor - Hickenlooper (Dem) +4.0%; Actual Hickenlooper +13.9%
-2008 US President - Obama +5.5%; Actual Obama +9.0%
Colorado is a state that consistently understates Dems in polls. Could be excluding Spanish speakers, not enough cell phones or lots of transplants that just don't get polled but the numbers are there. I really don't see Udall losing. At slightly better then even money, I think this is as good a bet as you can make. Interestingly enough looking at 17 polls on Real Clear Politics, Udall leads in 13 of them (some are really old though) and one recent poll has Gardner +8 when no other poll has him more then +2.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/co/colorado_senate_gardner_vs_udall-3845.html#polls
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