Colorado US Senate Race

Question

Guys - the lines have shifted dramatically in the Colorado US Senate Race. Democrat Mark Udall is now +110 to win on 5 Dimes. Absolutely amazing and if you like money get in on that. I only wish my limit was higher.

Let's look at the polling numbers. Right now Real Clear Politics has it at Gardner (GOP Candidate) at a .8% advantage.

Let's see how that translates to past years:

-2012 US President - Obama +1.5%; Actual Obama +5.4%

-2010 US Senate - Buck (GOP) + 3.0%; Actual Bennet (Dem) +.9%

-2010 Governor - Hickenlooper (Dem) +4.0%; Actual Hickenlooper +13.9%

-2008 US President - Obama +5.5%; Actual Obama +9.0%

Colorado is a state that consistently understates Dems in polls. Could be excluding Spanish speakers, not enough cell phones or lots of transplants that just don't get polled but the numbers are there. I really don't see Udall losing. At slightly better then even money, I think this is as good a bet as you can make. Interestingly enough looking at 17 polls on Real Clear Politics, Udall leads in 13 of them (some are really old though) and one recent poll has Gardner +8 when no other poll has him more then +2.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/co/colorado_senate_gardner_vs_udall-3845.html#polls

Cool_Arrow · Answer

Guys - the lines have shifted dramatically in the Colorado US Senate Race. Democrat Mark Udall is now +110 to win on 5 Dimes. Absolutely amazing and if you like money get in on that. I only wish my limit was higher.

Let's look at the polling numbers. Right now Real Clear Politics has it at Gardner (GOP Candidate) at a .8% advantage.

Let's see how that translates to past years:

-2012 US President - Obama +1.5%; Actual Obama +5.4%

-2010 US Senate - Buck (GOP) + 3.0%; Actual Bennet (Dem) +.9%

-2010 Governor - Hickenlooper (Dem) +4.0%; Actual Hickenlooper +13.9%

-2008 US President - Obama +5.5%; Actual Obama +9.0%

Colorado is a state that consistently understates Dems in polls. Could be excluding Spanish speakers, not enough cell phones or lots of transplants that just don't get polled but the numbers are there. I really don't see Udall losing. At slightly better then even money, I think this is as good a bet as you can make. Interestingly enough looking at 17 polls on Real Clear Politics, Udall leads in 13 of them (some are really old though) and one recent poll has Gardner +8 when no other poll has him more then +2.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/co/colorado_senate_gardner_vs_udall-3845.html#polls

toddo1 · Answer

I&#x27;m able to get &#x2B;150, still a green light?

dl36 · Answer

I suggest you try to employ the "swiss cheese partial hedge" strategy...  amazing odds and results

esplanade · Answer

The three Darrels.

Cool_Arrow · Answer

Pound it. Udall will win this. Look at the trends noted above. Gardner is &#x2B;3.0% right now. You are getting good value right now. If turnout is high Udall wins. Voting is 100% by mail now. Turnout won&#x27;t be a problem.

toddo1 · Answer

Still confident? Polls aren&#x27;t necessarily giving me the confidence but price is on the rise...&#x2B;210. Is the mail in voting a big factor too?

TheGoldenGoose · Answer

Latest polling has Gardner up 6% and 7%

SarasotaSlim · Answer

With independent candidate Steve Shogan out of the race,  Gardner is up 49 - 41%.. but I believe the race is tighter than that with the democrat voter fraud and all....

SkySky · Answer

Udall is &#x2B;210.This thing is looking Gardner more and more.

Cool_Arrow · Answer

Call me surprised. I didn&#x27;t see this one coming at all. Hopefully you guys faded me to make some money.

dl36 · Answer

unlike other posters ... historically you arent fade material...keep it up tho and you will not be someone to consider riding their picks anymore

bettingforfun · Answer

I think I would stay away from realclearpolitics.  The same reason you don&#x27;t tail a scamdicapper.

Colorado US Senate Race

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