Joe Bidens term

Biggest fraud of an administration. 

Revised employment just lowered by over 800k jobs as of March 2024. Final revised numbers are expected to be released early 2025. 

The report, released Wednesday morning, showed the largest downward revisions to the professional and business services industry, where employment was revised down by 358,000 during the period. Leisure & hospitality saw the second-largest downward revision of 150,000. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-employment-falls-by-818000-in-latest-government-revision-144414848.html

So it seems like the majority of jobs actually created were government jobs, which shouldn't be hard to cReAtE. 

What a joke of an administration. I would be embarrassed had I voted for sleepy. 

July's rise in the unemployment rate also triggered a commonly followed recession indicator, the Sahm Rule, which shows the recent rate of the rise in unemployment consistent with that which typically precedes a recession.

"wErE nOt In A rEcEsSiOn" is what we've been hearing non stop. "lOoK aT tHe JoBs RpOrTs" is all we kept hearing. The media and this sleep administration gas lit the public to no end. The left accused the right of gas lighting when it was them all along. The left really needs to take a look in the mirror. Whatever they claim the right is, they are. What a joke of an administration. If you've believed anything they've told you over the last 3.5 years, you are the sheep. 

If they are this far off with the jobs report (one of the largest declines in history) I couldn't even imagine the true state of the US fiscal deficit. I'd imagine this is one of the worst presidential runs in history. Everyone that's been posting pOlLs about US President rankings, was just trying to distract from sleeping being THE WORST. 

Yahoo has no mention of this on their front page. If this was done during Trumps term, this would be the headline, and every window would have an article about the revised massive drop. What a sham of an admin. Embarrassed for everyone that believed the bold faced lies from this admin. Gas lighting the public and telling them everything is ok because jObS aRe Up and UnEmPlOyMeNt Is DoWn. LIES. 

Yes sir.  It is even worse than folks think.  They have been doing a very deceptive job with the employment numbers for a while.  

When a quarter of your 'created' jobs are government jobs and when foreign-born new hires are out-numbering American-born new hires by over 3 to 1, then you have some additional problems baked in as well.  Not even considering the issue with multiple part-time jobs needed in the mix.

It will also be somewhat interesting what Powell has to say at Jackson Hole and what the anticipation of rate cuts, and how much and how often, will do.

They are doing what they can to keep saying we are not in a recession and still saying a 'soft landing' is more likely.

They have done an excellent job on spinning the inflation numbers as well.

It is looking like they will be able to maintain this through the election, which is a very key part of the plan.

818,000 is almost 0.5% of total jobs.  Even with preliminary revision by Bureau of labor statistics, job growth has been strong by historical norms.

We all addressed this back in MARCH.... pats on the back all around..... 

https://www.covers.com/forum/politics-87/jobs---record-unemployment-103834305

You really can fluff numbers either direction...plus you have to consider the source of how the numbers of figures are derived...for example, if you are relying or ensuring that employers are providing accurate numbers you will have inconsistencies...employers just want to get through the demand that these censuses ask for...employers are not interested in accuracy of the data, but rather completing the requirement and moving on...I for one, get hounded by a census team each month for reports...it's quite ridiculous really,...there is zero advantage to an employer for reporting these figures so you have to take the data with a grain of salt...yes, we have reports that can be ran to populate the data, but it is not checked for accuracy...every minute spent on populating some ridiculous census data or information for the government agencies is time taken away from running ones business...I don't put a lot of faith in those census figures sometimes given I know how they are derived and I know the pain that businesses have to go through to obtain the data...without checks and balances in place, which there are not, the data is not reliable...and that Bureau of Labor and Statistics is exactly who I am referring to here...they suck

@ABooksNightmare

 Certainly a lot of that is true.  But the statistical model for this accounts for the sampling error(s) and that sort of thing.  The employer's is not nearly as error-prone as the household one's, for example.  

But when the revision and the UI records are looked at -- they do the re-achoring and this comes out in the wash, so to speak.

But, overall, this is not an area where economists are inclined to 'fluff' one way or the other for a particular 'purpose'.

Now, certain non-economic group(s) may 'interpret' them how they like, or 'spin' them; but, mostly, the numbers are what they are and fairly accurate.

@ABooksNightmare

 The problem is, the markets are partially based on these numbers. So an over exaggerated estimate is really harmful to markets. 

@thirdperson

 Way to try to skew numbers like the left only knows how to do. The problem is, the average per month revised was ~64k loss. So when the average reporting was ~242k added per month, the real number was closer to 174k added per month (you can do the % to figure out gov't related jobs, and part time to see how bad this really is). THAT'S ALMOST a 30% revision LOSS.  If I estimated 30% loss on every job, my business would be closed. This is complete irresponsibility on the part of Democrats. This was clearly done with intention to mislead and to gas light the public and markets. 

This administration has been lying to us their whole time.  

Last nights DNC disgrace of a speaking event...

Mentions:

Trump 147 times

Economy 27 times

Border 8 times

Crime 6 times

Prices 5 times

Inflation 3 times

What do the dems really care about?  TRUMP 

The real importance starts at the bottom of that list and works up. The lazy and gas lighting dems adverted those mentions at all costs! bahhhahhhh 

Trump working for America. Dems working against Trump.  If the dems actually put in work, the Country and economy might be better off. Instead, they work on trying to defeat Trump and they sacrifice their own voters to do so. 

@scooby-doos

This for sure is not a partisan topic, the fact that all of the participants in here are favoring the TNC makes it a partisan thread but you have to be kidding to suggest that the RNC (proper time frame reference) has not pulled the slight of hand that you are claiming the DNC is in this case, with regards to social impacts of governmental topics.

I seem to recall lots of narrative in many RNC presidencies that stunk much worse than this....much much worse. The truth of topics and conclusions like these is never in the outlier and extremes. ALL political parties and politicians craft narratives to serve their partisan agendas. I could say one of hundreds of outright lies Trump spews regularly as false, generalizing and deliberate. Trump said that more than 100% of jobs created were for illegals...those were his words and he does this crap all the time and it is misleading, it is fake it is a lie and it has an agenda.

What good is it to try and play partisan patty cake like this and follow the mind games that your own partisan participants are feeding you?

both sides are ridiculed with lies, agendas and generalizations it's not even funny anymore...

The presidency has become who can decipher between the biggest bullshitter...throw shit out there and see what sticks...I believe they know that the average citizen/voter will not fact check or dig into their comments and therefore that is the impression that is left...they are doing this intentionally for that purpose because it is happening on both sides...doesn't matter who does it more, it only matters that it is happening and has been happening for all of our voting life...it's just easier to discredit now with social media and the internet...

Biggest bullshitter wins and who can capture the heart of those voters by what they can remember versus what they deem as credible....what a shit show...

@wallstreetcappers

 https://www.covers.com/forum/politics-87/jobs---record-unemployment-103834305

I will give you the benefit of the doubt that you were not speaking about me when you said "all participants" as I merely shared the original thread when we discussed the "record unemployment" numbers nearly 6 months ago.... 

@kcblitzkrieg

 I dont need to click on a link to read a thread where I know someone said this someone else said that. My position never changes with regard to data presented and that can be CPI it can be employment rate it can be GDP it can be whatever and that is from ALL governments, China is well known for their crafting of narrative with data so the issue is that ANY government data is crap even if they are reporting it accurately. The way data is collected is lame it is a slice of the economy usually surveys or selected segments of the economy it is not comprehensive and it is not accurate and never has been.

The fact that revisions are being reported is a waste of time trying to craft that it is just the DNC and they are trying to force a narrative, well narratives are the best game in town and all sides do it. I just dislike the way both groups here try to take punches at the other and actually convince themselves that one group is better and one is worse and then convince themselves that their party is better and their candidate is better because of narrative generation.

I'm surprised this thread is allowed BigGame...good for you

Usually any thread countering Biden is disintegrated....way to break through...this is encouraging...

@ABooksNightmare

Sheesh you are smarter than to keep making nonsense replies like that.

Trump baseless attacks on integrity of Bureau of labor statistics are irresponsible and inaccurate according to American enterprise institute.  Routine revisions occur every year and there is nothing scandalous here.  BLS relies on multiple surveys  for estimating employment levels and revisions are part of that process.  In 2019 during Trump administration, BLS revised down its estimate by over 500,000 jobs.

I report to the BLS on a regular basis so what multiple surveys are you referring to than gives you the impression that what you are stating is factual?

I will tell you what is reported....monthly I report to the BLS number of employees broken out by male and female...total wages and hours worked including overtime...that's federal

For the state, I report new hire registery, which is mainly used for child support and wage garnishment orders...the states may also use the quarterly state wage reporting information supplied by each business....

So what exactly do you feel are multiple resources being used to configure this data because I can tell you as a business that has employees nationally, we are not supplying this information...the EEOC or census report is remitted annually which breaks down by type of classification...the monthly BLS report asks for this classification (Job Title) data as well but I tell them to pound sand and they say ok...

I think there may be a false understanding of how this data is configured, but take it from someone who reports this...this all they receive....there may be some additional state requirements in certain states but that's it...curious to know what multiple sources are used because I would call your bluff on this and day that there is not...generally, government facilities are barely equipped to handle one source of raw data let alone verify with multiple...they don't have the resources or man power to do this...

I am saying it is based on surveys of a percentage of the economy, a small percentage and it is extrapolated from the surveys and sample size. It has wide standard of deviation because the data is not comprehensive. I understand how all the data points are collected and none of the reported figures are accurate. It is impossible to get a full comprehensive data set with a super low standard deviation (variance) thus the wide ranges, wide corrections and strange month to month results. 

I dont fault the government because how could we expect thousands of private companies and self employed individuals to correctly and in a timely fashion report accurate and fresh data that has a high degree of confidence? Its impossible. Then you have to rely on the accuracy of those providing the data and there is no real true way of verifying the surveys people submit, again not the fault of the business owner but just a reality of data collection and the complete lack of accuracy and the need for updates and trailing corrections. 

Holy shit someone is finally getting it

All politicians do is make a bunch of bullshit promises to attract voters...then they do about 5% of the shit they promised...all while lining their pockets and their friends/families pockets with tax money/corp money

Its impossible to trust any politician...they are just feeding you bullshit to attract your vote

Funny how all these threads are basically one group thinking it is righteous over the other....imagine arguing about who's the more clean-cut crook

The numbers were as real as the patrons Kamala greeted in Philly.

 I can't wait to see the books that come out in the next 3-4 years about the Biden admin.

Kamala will fix it "once she is in office" , oh wait , what has she been doing the last THREE 1/2 years ?? 

@THEMUGG

 If Trump loses this time that fractured party will be showing him out the back door, and maybe just than the American public will find out how devious and misleading the MAGA episode has been! Because the books that his clinging enablers write about the private backdrop of this era will sit on shelves for years and years!…..Enjoy the every man for himself show  

Any real Republican knows it has been a shit show. But to say that it was devious and misleading without including the Joe Biden/Kamala Harris episode who produced the same hit records is blind and stupid. Call a spade a spade. Don't drink your shit stained Kool Aide and tell me it is delicious. I assure you that is a drink I want nothing to do with either.