MODERATE voters say ...

Trump with 20% of the black vote is unbeatable....hands down ../

A CNN poll released on Sunday showed Biden with a 5 percentage point lead, 51% to 46%, in Florida, where Trump has been running second since March. The gap has been wider in other surveys, including a Quinnipiac University poll from last week, which showed Biden up 51% to Trump's 38%.

CNN(the most fake news new network)  Poll I can pit a lot of stock in a CNN poll ...........llol

Florida: Trump vs. Biden,  since JUNE 01

CNN            Biden +5 .....TIED for weakest Biden poll
Quinnipiac     Biden +13
St. Pete Polls Biden +6
Gravis           Biden +10
CNBC            Biden +7
CBS News      Biden +6
Trafalgar          Tie 
CNBC            Biden +5
FOX News    Biden +9
NYT/Siena     Biden +6
CNBC            Biden +7
TIPP             Biden +11

RCP mean = Biden +7.8 

This is waaaay UP from just +6.6 prior to JUNE 01.

from Real Clear Politics

Democrat Party Poll

General Election:Trump vs. Biden        Harvard/Harris       Biden55,Trump 45...........Biden +10 

Democrat Party Poll

General Election:Trump vs. Biden        Harvard/Harris       Biden55,Trump 45...........Biden +10 

"CNN(the most fake news new network) Poll I can pit a lot of stock in a CNN poll "

You can "pit a lot of stock in a CNN poll" if you wish, or not...

It’s July, and the presidential election polls show the Democratic challenger Biden with a big lead over the incumbent Republican Trump

That is true — now. But it was even truer in 1988, when a Gallup Poll in late July found Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis ahead of Vice-President George Bush, 55 % to 38 %...GHW Bush ... up +17

Last week, polls conducted both for CNN and The New York Times/Siena College found former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 14 points.   Shithappens...

After Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis was up +17 in July ...three months later he lost to GHW Bush 54% to 46%

Sure....And the Falcons were leading 28-3 in the Super Bowl with less than 6 mins left in 3Q....

One-offs *DO* happen.  Everyone on a handicapping forum knows this.  You sound like you're just learning it.

But what fool would hint a one-off  should be weighted EQUALLY with all the other occurances/stats that oppose it? Hopefully nobody HERE! That would be foolish, and certainly display a level of ignorance of even most basic math "probability" theory -- the foundation for successful handicapping.

Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

July 26 - 28, 2020
= 1500; ±3.5% MOE

**As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

Q#4: Do you think Trump purposefully withheld military aid to Ukraine
in order to get the President of Ukraine to investigate allegations of
corruption against the Biden family? (Quid Pro Quo/extortion)
MODERATES said:
54% ... YES he did!
24% .... no

Q#6: Do you think the government of Saudi Arabia is directly responsible
for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi? (despite what trump claims)
MODERATES said:
49% ... YES!
6% ..... no
45% ... unsure

Q42:   In general,  do you think LEGAL immigration makes
the U.S. better off or worse off, or does it not make much difference?
LIBERALS said: ...58% BETTER OFF!....15% worse
Moderates say: ...35% BETTER OFF.....21% worse
Conservatives: ....20% better off...........40% WORSE OFF!!

Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

July 26 - 28, 2020
= 1500; ±3.5% MOE

**As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

Q26: Do you approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of COVID-19 outbreak?
MODERATES said:
32% ..... approve
65% ... DISAPPROVE!

Q30: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Dr.Fauci working on covid-19?
MODERATES said:
65% ...FAVORABLE!
24% ...unfavorable

Q32: Would you support or oppose a policy that made it mandatory to
wear masks in public places?
MODERATES said:
74% ...SUPPORT mandatory masking!
19% ... oppose
**NOTE: Republicans said: 50% support/46% oppose

Q34: Would you support or oppose some of the states that have reopened
sectors of their economy closing again due to COVID-19 concerns?
MODERATES said:
61% ... YES, close again!
27% .... no
**NOTE: Republicans are 44% yes /44% no

I have been saying this to a lot of Trump supporters and trump haters.  Trump has done nothing to expand his voting pool.  He still has a chance, he needs something drastic to confuse the masses.  A vaccine would help but it's unlikely.  He should say something like I support M4A and UBI and that might be enough.

If he gets them in the right zip codes, yes.

Two solid points.

It's obvious he has not only failed to expand the voting pool which lost by 3 MILLION votes to a very UNPOPULAR Democrat, but he's actually losing voters. There were never trumpers before. Now there are more. A lot more.

Second, just making "halftime adjustments" doesn't appear it will be enough to overcome a solid Biden lead. trump's going to need to get lucky and recover a couple balls in the redzone AND get a favorable non-call (ala, how the Saints got robbed vs Rams...Source: https://tinyurl.com/y2zqqfts )  An event like that, sometimes referred to as the infamous "October Surprise" can flip things in the waning moments.

Clinton had a solid lead, but was a persistent target of the Russians, and then Wikileaks.  Even more October surprise delivered from Comey's announcement.  It hurt.  Trump needs something along those lines to do it again for him because he will lose the popular vote again. QUestion is by how much and most importantly in which states.  Biden only needs to win 3 of the contentious 9 swing states (currently close)...or just 2 if one of them is Florida. Whereas trump must win 7 of those 9 INCLUDING Florida.  Since Biden has solid leads in most of these, the path is much harder for trump. Not impossible, but much harder.  That's why he *NEEDS* an "October Surprise".  As I have mused before multiple times in recent weeks, this could be thanks to AG BARR making a surprise announcement of a "serious investigation" into Joe Biden for "alleged" crimes....or something similar, since BARR's job is also very much on the line if trump loses. Because there is no way in heaven that the economy will turnaround COMPLETELY in less than 3 months.  In fact, economists have been saying in recent weeks it's no better than stagnant, and may get worse.  Certainly trump himself said the coronavirus (and resultant fallout is implied) is likely to get worse before it gets better.

The "October Surprise" may also largely explain why some polls show Biden would be a solid choice *IF* the election were held today, but the same voters are ambivalent whether that would hold true by November 3.  There are no "secret voters lurking in the weeds waiting to vote for trump"...Rather there are people (including me) who EXPECT trump will do something (probably cheat) to change the solid momentum against him. It is completely within his nature to do so.  And he has to...

If no "October Surprise" (against Biden; in trump's favor) then trump goes down like the Titanic, taking the Senate and most Republicans with him

Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

July 26 - 28, 2020
= 1500; ±3.5% MOE

**As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

Q44: Do you think race relations in the United States are ...?
Liberal's view: ......76% BAD!!...24% good
Moderate's view: ...73% BAD!!...27% good
Conservative's say: 48% bad.......52% GOOD!

Q45: How big a problem is RACISM in our society today?
Liberal's view: ......90% PROBLEM!...10% not much problem
Moderate's view: ...78% PROBLEM!...12% not much problem
Conservative's say: 60% PROBLEM......39% not much problem
**BLACK's view: ... 93% PROBLEM!!...7% not much problem
*Hispanic's view: .. 81% PROBLEM!...19% not much problem

Q48: Trump has suggested sending more federal security officers from DHS
to deal with protests in otherAmerican cities, such as Chicago, New York, Detroit,
and Philadelphia.  Would you approve or disapprove of this decision?
MODERATES said:
35% ...approve
56% ...DISAPPROVE!

Q49: The Democrat led HOUSE passed a bill to remove Confederate statues
from the from the U.S. Capitol grounds. Do you suppport or oppose ?
Liberal's view: ......77% SUPPORT the bill..16% oppose
Moderate's view: ...47% Support the bill.......40% oppose
Conservative's say: 18% support the bill.......72% OPPOSE!!! (Keep statues of traitors!)
**BLACK's view: ...64% SUPPORT the bill..14% oppose

Q50: The REPUBLICAN led Senate recently passed a bill for the renaming
military bases that honor Confederate officers. (ie. traitors, defending slavery)
Do you approve or disapprove of this decision by SENATE?

Liberal's view: ...... 69% APPROVE the bill!..19% disapprove
Moderate's view: ...46% APPROVE the bill!..38% disapprove
Conservative's say: 19% approve the bill........69% DISAPPROVE!
**BLACK's view: ... 46% APPROVE the bill!..15% disapprove

People take surveys and say, "Yes, I would buy this product!" all of the time but that doesn't mean they actually go out to the store and buy it.

They don't even make the effort to mail order it. .

Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

July 26 - 28, 2020
= 1500; ±3.5% MOE

**As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

Q106: Do you personally (or jointly with a spouse!), have any money invested in
the stock market right now, either in an individual stock or in a mutual fund?
LIBERALS said: ... 41% yes ....... 59% NO!
Moderates say: ... 44% yes ....... 56% NO!
Conservatives: .... 46% yes........ 54% NO
**BLACKS say: ... 27% yes ....... 73% NO!!
***AGGREGATE: 40% yes ........ 60% NO!!

Q51: Is our COUNTRY better off now than four years ago? (ie, under Obama)
Liberal's view: ..... 12% better now ............76% better under Obama!
Moderate's view: ...23% better now............54% better under Obama!
Conservative's say: 55% BETTER NOW.....22% better 4 yrs ago
**BLACK's view: ......8% better now...........63% better under Obama!

Q77: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of president trump?
Moderates said: ...35% favorable....63% UNFAVORABLE
**BLACKS said: ... 16% favorable....79% UNFAVORABLE!

Q60: If an election for president were going to be held TODAY ...?
Moderates said: 56% BIDEN!...29% trump
**BLACKS said:  81% BIDEN!!... 5% trump

According to realclearpolitics, polls conducted in final 21 days of presidential elections  have historically been quite accurate.  Average error margin is 4 percentage points.  Error is defined as the difference between a poll's margin of error between top 2 candidates and the actual vote.  Even in 2016, error margin is still close to the long term average.

Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

July 26 - 28, 2020
= 1500; ±3.5% MOE

**As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

Q79: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as President?
MODERATES said:
38% ... approval
59% ... DISAPPROVAL

Q82: Do you think Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like YOU?
MODERATES said:
31% ... yes, he cares
65% ... NO, he does NOT!
*NOTE: BLACKS say: 19% yes / 77% NO!

Q91: Do you think JOE BIDEN cares about the needs and problems of people like YOU?
MODERATES said:
54% ... YES, Biden cares!
38% ... no
*NOTE: BLACKS say: 71% YES! / 19% no

 Q85: Do you think president Trump is honest and trustworthy, or not?
LIBERALS said: ... 10% yes ....... 83% aaaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Moderates say: ... 27% yes ....... 61% aaaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Conservatives: .... 66% Yes .... 20% no
**BLACKS say: ... 13% yes .......73% aaaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Q94: Do you think JOE BIDEN is honest and trustworthy, or not?
LIBERALS said: ... 70% YES!! ...13% no
Moderates say: ... 45% YES ....... 31% no
Conservatives: .... 15% yes......... 67% HELL NO!
**BLACKS say: ... 58% YES ....... 11% no

Newest Economist/YouGov Poll

July 26 - 28, 2020
= 1500; ±3.5% MOE

**As always, I list the responses of MODERATES to reduce poll bias
from either Liberal or Conservative views or unrepresentative samples.

Q31: How much do you trust MEDICAL advice from infectious disease expert, Dr. Fauci?
MODERATES said:
60% ...TRUST Dr.Fauci
17% ... don't trust

Q31: How much do you trust MEDICAL ADVICE from trump?
MODERATES said:
29% ... trust trump
60% ... DO NOT TRUST trump!

Q31: How much do you trust MEDICAL advice from infectious disease expert, Dr. Fauci?
**REPUBLICANS said:
38% ... trust the doctor
45% ... DO NOT TRUST FAUCI, the infectious disease expert

Q31: How much do you trust MEDICAL ADVICE from trump?
**REPUBLICANS said:
76% ... trust trump for MEDICAL advice!
 11% ... don't trust trump

Q41: Are you confident in Trump’s ability to deal wisely with the
coronavirus outbreak, or are you uneasy about his approach?
MODERATES said:
26% ...confident
62% ...UNEASY!