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Obama Drops From -420 to -370 In Minutes

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Veteran
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Posted: #26
not sure what books have (had) dropped Obama down to (-300)... but right now on Bookmaker it is (-380)... was (-420) at one point this morning, then came down to (-370) at one point...


incidentally... a 50/50 popular vote means Romney has very little chance of winning the electoral vote... he needs to hit about 51.4% for the actual election to be a coin flip... if the PV is 50/50, Obama's odds are around 83% of winning the election...
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater:




incidentally... a 50/50 popular vote means Romney has very little chance of winning the electoral vote... he needs to hit about 51.4% for the actual election to be a coin flip... if the PV is 50/50, Obama's odds are around 83% of winning the election...


people don't understand this point but it's not their fault, the media does a terrible job of explaining how presidents get elected and most people don't appreciate the difference. 
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by sportskingpin:


What makes you think it is a coin flip? The popular vote? Because Romney/Republicans say he is going to win?


Three factors:

1)  The fact that it's this close benefits the challenger.  That is just a fact

2) pre-election polls are democratic heavy.  Republicans are less apt to take part in these things, mainly because society with the help of main stream media make republicans ashamed to admit who their voting for.  Also, they don't wanna be deemed racist just because their voting for the white guy.

3)  The base of the Romney camp is much more energized than Obama's.  The republicans are gonna come out in droves.  Obama has only rhetoric to run on, not a record.  Rhetoric doesn't get the base out.  People are genuinely excited for a change in the white house.
 
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Posted: #29
Lefty- I'm all for taking 4-1 on a coin flip but this election isn't even remotely a coin flip. The polls mean nothing because the popular vote doesn't count. All you have to do is count up the electoral votes and you would see Romney has no chance. He would have to win Ohio and swing a few other states and that isn't going to happen.
 
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Posted: #30

honestly, i can see romney winning ohio and only getting to 266..   i dont think he will win new hampshire, iowa, or colorado..   the odds are worth taking a shot on him, and i did..  i dont think its a dead loser, i see him winning florida and virginia, but i dont see how he gets to 270...  that being said, anybody who says 'romney has no chance' or 'obama has no chance'  is strictly speaking with their heart and party allegiance..  this is going to be close

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by nick69:

Lefty- I'm all for taking 4-1 on a coin flip but this election isn't even remotely a coin flip. The polls mean nothing because the popular vote doesn't count. All you have to do is count up the electoral votes and you would see Romney has no chance. He would have to win Ohio and swing a few other states and that isn't going to happen.


Yes, the popular vote means nothing.  If it did Romney would be our next president hands down.  I'm not talking about that.   I'm talking a state by state breakdown more specifically the swing states.  Take Ohio for example.  The lead he had going in with early votes is about half of what it was in 2008.  This is a sign that Ohio will be much closer than people think.  Ohio is literally a coin flip.  Just like the overall election.  The only thing that isn't a coin flip is the popular vote.  Romney will win that
 
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Posted: #32
you sure lefty? romney will win popular vote? i can get that at +250...
 
Prospect
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by kevinkim:

you sure lefty? romney will win popular vote? i can get that at +250...


I made the same bet, so I'm confident enough to put my own money down.  Enough said
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by kevinkim:

you sure lefty? romney will win popular vote? i can get that at +250...


lol
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by Lefty_Rosenthal:



I made the same bet, so I'm confident enough to put my own money down.  Enough said
you seem that bet is so sure. 
what would be your odds on that ? +250 is really big for something that easy,
my book offers up to 8k bet on that, do i go all in?
 
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Posted: #36
i hope ur kidding kevin
 
Prospect
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Posted: #37
and not because i think its a bad bet.  but if u would ever put 8k on a bet based on someone elses word u must have too much money to throw around...  good luck whatever u decide
 
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Posted: #38
why i would kid? i also think this can be a tight race. +250 +350, its big.
 
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Posted: #39
I had George Bush in 04 at -180.  It went up to way past +150 when the initial polling reports came in.  Those polls ended up SKEWED and of course GW ended up winning.

Information is changing by the minute and thus things are going to be changing by the minute.  

You place a big bet on Obama and now because of one line move like this, you're suddenly freaked out?

Do something else or stop betting more money than you can afford to lose.  
 
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Posted: #40
Does it necessarily mean anything at all?  Can a line move not just mean there's a little more of an influx of romney money?  If a few people see this as a flip and Obama's not sitting at a good price, can't that be the line move?  Every single tweek of a number doesn't mean there's new information out there.  If this is how some of you wager line movements on sunday must drive you insane.
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by kevinkim:

you seem that bet is so sure. 
what would be your odds on that ? +250 is really big for something that easy,
my book offers up to 8k bet on that, do i go all in?


If you're asking me wether to put 8k on Romney winning the popular vote I would obviously say no, and to immediately get yourself into a "gamblers anonymous" meeting

I am very confident, and yes those odds are ridiculously in your favor, but anything could happen.  Like I used in the analogy with the coin flip.  If you gave me 4-1 on a coin flip I'd be an idiot not to take it, but I certainly could lose
 
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Posted: #42
so please dont tell us Yes, the popular vote means nothing.  If it did Romney would be our next president hands down
i dont mind putting 8k.
 
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Posted: #43
kevin, put 8k on obama under 309.5 electoal votes if ur confident i romney. you can get it at 260 and win even if obama wins every swing state except florida and north carolina
 
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Posted: #44
-260 obama U309.5
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by kevinkim:

so please dont tell us Yes, the popular vote means nothing.  If it did Romney would be our next president hands down
i dont mind putting 8k.


Actually, I'll say whatever the f*ck I want.  And if I didn't think it, I wouldn't put my own money down.  So yes, bet your mortgage, bet your kids college fund, your IRA, whatever else you Canucks have access to
 
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Posted: #46

Quote Originally Posted by gameto11:

kevin, put 8k on obama under 309.5 electoal votes if ur confident i romney. you can get it at 260 and win even if obama wins every swing state except florida and north carolina

Great bet, but you might as well play Romney FL too, because that is exactly what you are counting on.

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by Lefty_Rosenthal:



Actually, I'll say whatever the f*ck I want.  And if I didn't think it, I wouldn't put my own money down.  So yes, bet your mortgage, bet your kids college fund, your IRA, whatever else you Canucks have access to
i did not want offend you, just you almost convinced me to bet that thing at +250.
its ok i dont mind to lose 8k, if i bet something its worthed.
 
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Posted: #48
obama under 309.5 at -210 on 5dimes... that seems darn good. maximum 210 dollar bet allowed
 
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Posted: #49
obama under 302.5 +110 
8k allowed here ladbrokes.
 
 
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Posted: #50
302.5 is baaaad dude. 303 is a highly likely outcome. that's the number. if you can get UNDER 303.5 at that I say slam it.. but no way at 302.5
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