The Great Trump Recession!

America is going to be Trump’s seventh bankruptcy.….How your 401k looking?

You could have put this in any of the numerous Trump bashing threads that are littering this forum . 

Maybe Trump should do what the Biden admin did and just change the definition of a recession, that'll avoid it. Or maybe Trump should just keep pumping money in the markets to avoid one, because more borrowed money always solves everything, right? Dems really only believe markets can only go up, don't they? Living in la la fantasy land. 

So does the same thing go for your incessant, unnecessary partisan rhymes in threads where they are not serving much of any purpose?

If you want to criticize a member, best that you are not an offender yourself.

@BigGame90

 On the topic I am curious do you consider this drop to be just the market doing its thing or is this in reaction to the tariffs and inflationary policies Trump is pushing forward?

The markets want lower rates, inflation and tariffs are going to do the opposite as the FED will not cut rates into a stagflationary environment that Trump is currently heading towards. 

If the election were flipped would the markets be dropping like this?

My rhymes aren’t partisan . That’s just your opinion . And they do serve a purpose . So stop offending me .

@spockgato

Then quit stalking other members, your comment was invalid given you do the same and worse. Why even enter this thread, it is not your gig you are just looking to harass again.

Patterns are so curious.

The reality is we have been in a recession since late 2023.  

"If the election were flipped would the markets be dropping like this"?  Simple answer is NO.  

As far as "what will the FED do", how can you have any confidence in what direction they might go?  

The only confidence I'd have is that when we hit a bottom there will be much QE / liquidity provided to pump.  How much are we gonna bottom out is the question?  

tick tock. 

Why is it that you have labeled me one way and now I’m that forever ?

@spockgato

 Because patterns, your own posts are the proof of my conclusion. Why make post 2 or even enter here as you obviously are not able to have a discussion with this group, just click on your username and read your posts and see why it is obvious you are exactly what you are. 

I do not appreciate you coming into a thread to harass someone when you post wonky stuff pretty much exclusively that is not adding much of any value to discussion, it is rare that any on the other side engage with your messages so why else are you forcing your way in when it does little more than annoy?

I’m from the school of thought that champions the idea that one needs to express themselves in order to fully understand themselves .

And I also never close the door to communication with my earthly brothers .

Why are you so hostile towards me ?

@kcblitzkrieg

 I know for a fact that barring a massive market correction or a global event, the FED will never cut into stagflation or inflation backdrop. This market drop is 100% Trump, nothing wrong with saying it as his actions and decisions are impacting the FED and thus rates. We all know that the market is itching for lower rates and have been anticipating it for 8 months but given the approach this administration has the odds of lower rates are less and less this is what the market does not want.

I do not think rates are going UP more but barring some nasty correction or a global event, the FED wont cut into the current environment IMO.

@wallstreetcappers

 I've said many times in the last ~2 years this should have happened to the markets awhile ago. This dump isn't 100% on Trump. The last admin just kept putting band aids on an open wound from covid trying to limp into the 2024 election. Markets can't go up forever, we've seen what happens when they rise to quickly and for too long. It's false hope to provide fake liquidity to pump markets and it comes back in the form of a "cRaSh" and everyone just blames the current POTUS. All you need to do is a pull back of the entire market and look at this fake BS, esp from covid. Market is fake. 

Why do you think the "market" wants lower rates? Is the "market" just banks? Why do you want the FED to cut rates? Most people are already tapped out. Look at car loans, soon to be mortgages (God speed Canada) and credit cards. You really want lower rates so people can take on more debt all in the name pf pumping the market so you can continue to watch your port go up?

@spockgato

 Post 2...it was harassing, unnecessary and served no purpose. My reply would not have come if you had not made the partisan reply you did. Just own what you are and try to be better, I have suggested you try and avoid the group who does not engage with you and is not interested in your comments and rhymes, you are not forced to do this but when you keep doing the same thing it causes issues and that is when I have to say something.

I dont reply to you either, I do not like the way you take digs on members hidden in rhymes, the rare time I will make a response to you is when you are harassing someone or breaking the rules. This will keep happening as you keep bothering those members.

@wallstreetcappers

 This market drop is 100% Trump, nothing wrong with saying it as his actions and decisions are impacting the FED and thus rates.

You are correct, there is nothing wrong with saying it....which is why I said exactly that.  

I do not think rates are going UP more but barring some nasty correction or a global event, the FED wont cut into the current environment IMO.

We have been due a nasty correction since they intervened in November 2019 and before that, post GFC..... It needs it.  Flush it.  

@BigGame90

 The market  lives on low rates its crack for the markets. It cuts finance costs, it cuts margin rates it allows the liquidity to cost near zero. The traders and the liquidity in the markets want lower rates and that is what moves markets. Corps can issue near zero debt when rates are low, probably the largest beneficiary of ZIRP is risk on assets and technology stocks.

@kcblitzkrieg

 My comment about nasty correction is like DOW 20-25k not a minor 5-10% drop that we see from time to time, that or the credit market starting to crack..that would be a global event that the FED would take action on.

We would need to see a 40-50% drop in markets with an inflationary environment for the FED to cut and even then I think they would use REPO tools before cutting, they really wont cut into inflation/stagflation we now have.

@wallstreetcappers

 I've already called for the markets to drop >35-40% before the end of 2027. Blame it on Trump if you want, blame it on history, blame it on a fake market, blame it on China or Japan. History repeats. 

Am I allowed to make statements ?

I thought that this thread he created could have easily been something that he could have posted in any one of the numerous threads that are littering this forum .

that’s valid .

And if you consider that as harassment that’s your opinion and that’s how you took it , because now you’ve labeled something and will never give it a chance to evolve into something else .

Even when it does .

is it possible for you to agree to something with someone even if you don’t like them ?

@BigGame90

 I've said many times in the last ~2 years this should have happened to the markets awhile ago. This dump isn't 100% on Trump. The last admin just kept putting band aids on an open wound from covid trying to limp into the 2024 election. Markets can't go up forever, we've seen what happens when they rise to quickly and for too long.

Yes, this should've happened in last 2 years.  Bank bailouts of 2023 were a turning point to get the pump back on.  Bessent has literally been telling all of us what is going to happen and its happening.  Trump just said the other day "who cares about the stock market".  Risk assets are going to get pummeled more.  You know a quick way to push down the inflationary pressures?  Crash the asset prices.  401K for all you boomers better be correctly balanced in these next 12 months.  

Yes.  I concur on all of this.  

"credit market" and "global event".  I contend that is the more likely scenario we are going to witness.  

@kcblitzkrieg

Ive scratched my head on how the markets got up here myself but that has more to do with the top heavy SPX index, the small and mid cap indexes have been flat for a very long time relative to the tech giant SPX. I also think this move has been a few names getting hit more than the broad markets, so NVDA has dropped from 140 to 106 in a month, Amazon and Meta are down 20% from highs very quickly, chip stocks have been hit outside of NVDA so to me this is a high beta tech drop versus the general markets.

I dont think the markets will drop to 20k on the DOW because liquidity is strong and it is easier to make money in a rising market than a bear market for hedgies and traders, it is also moving so quickly that the end and reverse will also come quickly.

Maybe we level off in the 30s on the DOW and stay there for a while to consolidate versus crash down in a short period of time. If other central banks cut MORE than they have and the FED stays where they are, that could start credit market issues, I read that the repo markets are starting to get busy but nothing alarming yet.

Markets are fake. Money is fake. Stocks are fake.  Markets have cooked themselves and greed hasn't left. Markets are a fugazi and nothing is real including the stocks in your brokage account or the crypto in your exchange acct. 

Lets be real, all the top companies have likely cooked the books. Why do you think the accounting firm for SMCI ducked out over ethical concerns? You think SMCI is the only one doing it? 

Who do you think is responsible for the selling right now? What will they do with the "cash" from this dump? 

@BigGame90

 Selling is hedgies and private equity, traders rolling to make a buck in a down trend with an inflationary economy. Liquidity drives markets, the more expensive the liquidity the less the profits and vice versa. This action to me is a sign that the FED aint budging unless they are forced to since Trump is not that concerned with inflation, his actions have not been to combat inflation and have made it worse IMO, add middle to low income job losses he is in charge of this equals stagflation.

Stagflation is the nastiest of economic scenarios...

@wallstreetcappers

 How do you expect inflation to go down? Lowering rates? Providing cheap capital? Bailing out banks when the time comes?