Arizona at St. Louis (10/04/2012)

0-3 Under Thu night. It is time to lean Over.  

NFC games gained popularity with unders thus far. That half point could be crucial here

20-6 Rams.Thursday night games are always boring as shit

Rams and OV. St Louis still not getting respect. Ariz could easily be 1-3, gline stand, pats missed gift and mia being mia.

Here's the deal: The thursday night game this year has been 4 unders in a row. If you look at the past ten years the over under every year is 8-8, 9-7 or 7-9. So odds are over tonight it's also the lowest total of the year for thursday night there has not been a total hasn't been below 40 this year. Vegas needs an over these are set up games. Dont be sitting there at halftime and the total is already over. TAKE RAMS OVER

ITS GON BE A TIGHT GAME COULD GO HIGHG COULD GO LOW. I LIKE CARDS BY 10 PTS ANYWAY LOVE THE HIGH.AND I BEEN ON A ROLL

One of the easier picks of the week in my opinion. Home dog division rival.SHORTWEEK. Jeff Fisher is proving again he is one of better minds in coaching as the Rams are playing much better.Arizona has nice D, but a little of smoke n mirrors for me.Getting torched by Tannehill n Hartline cant make Cards backers feel good. They cant run the ball and have been getting sub par qb play. Rams kicker is a huge weapon..kid is $$$. RAMS LARGE!

nfl fake thats my msg period

Fresh off a profitable weekend after a rough start, I'm feeling lukcy....

prior to reading, understand that I haven't hit a Thursday Night Game since they started Thursday Night Games...


but I think the Cards roll... their defense is real good and I believe just had a mulligan last week....

Plus they are favored by 1 so the home dawg angle that I usually play on prime time games is pretty irrelevant...... better team on a short week..... and they did beat the Patriots in Foxborough albeit Replacement Refs....

They should be able to handle the Rams...

Kolb breakout game?

Rams lots of points

Initial lean: rams ML and Under.

There are six home dogs and three have a legitimate chance to win outright and the Rams are in the three....Rams,Skins with KC as the trap of the week over Balt possiility.Though Jac is looking like an winner over Chi...

STL-19

Ari-17

 

Kind of surprised at how trendy of an underdog pick the rams look to be this year, but i guess that makes me feel good, like i'm almost against the grain for rolling with public money...

Rams won against the seahawks on the virtue of russell wilson's young ineptitude.  3 picks leads to the seahawks getting slaughtered in the turnover battle and especially when you just aren't moving the ball through the air, that's a recipe to get slaughtered in the box score.  Yet the hawks had a chance for a last drive comeback.

Meanwhile, the hawks D did everything they could to win that game, as the best unit on the field, but could only do so much while the rams were giftwrapped with field position all day and their kicker is capable of making good on mediocre field position.

All that said... again, zona's defense is the best unit on the field here, not close.  The rams run defense was nothing special as lynch and turbin racked up a ton on the ground.  Ryan williams should be able to put up a reasonable facimile of that performance, while Kolb has enough experience and much better weapons in the receiving game to keep from throwing up the disaster performance that wilson did.  Kolb has also been a good game manager this year.  Simply put, zona's passing game is a tier or two above the hawks at the QB and WR position.

Zona's cougher was last week against the fins, and I think they've been playing too well to expect another.  A look at recent history shows that zona is 5-0 SU last 5 visits to the STL and 3-2 ATS there, but 3-0 ATS when laying 3 or less (or catching points).  Overall, zona is 7-2 last 9 games vs. the rams.

Also, I don't remember the numbers but I've seen something about road favs of less than 3 sporting a pretty solid record and off a flip of that script, I don't think the numbers get beat in consecutive weeks by the same team.  These Thursday games have been a little ugly, but week 1 notwithstanding, short prep time favors the better team and that's zona.

I put no stock in traveling east as this is in the middle of the day, much different than at 10 am.  Bottom line, I'm a historic contrarian, but sometimes you just gotta go with the better team, even when the public sees what you're seeing.

CARDS ML

Not much of a totals player, but I have made some coin betting unders (4-0 so far) on inflated numbers, and as someone noted earlier, that's been the theme on Thursday.  I cashed UNDER in green bay and carolina, both floating up around 50 (SEA/GB, WAS/TB were the other two under cashes if anyone cares).  Well, it looks like a correction is in and the only way to play the total in my mind is the OVER.  Don't know if i'll nut up and grab a slice as, like I said, totals ain't normally my thing, but it does look like the play here.

biggest problem with the OVER here for me is I don't like doing that when both team's best units are defense.

and the first line of my first post should say "seem to be this WEEK".  I caught some value on the Rams in the first two weeks, it's this week that seems surprising to me.

i have to take the undefeated team,and im buying pts.arz+3-176@heritage.

I agree with wangichi, he is a good capper, my sentiment is Arizona is better on both sides of the ball.. The only thing I don't like is the traveling, but its not a long flight . 

the cardinals had 3 HOME GAMES in a row, rams win tonight easy

i'm liking AZ here,more offense and in my mind a little better D,wondering about the over also?watching for late line change before i pull the trigger.

 

thinking this might be the ideal spot to do a large teaser?

 

St.Louis only offense now days is its kicker,Arizona's Kolb is playing better plus he's got Fitzgerald on the outside.Still I would take the Lams and tease it to 3.5.

Tough came to cap. I think the Cards are a bit overrated, although that road win against my Pats was pretty impressive. If they could pull out a tough one there, you'd think they'd be able to do it against the Rams tonight.

Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

 

On a Thursday night thats typically a under trend.  Everything tells me to bet the over but I can compete with these trends...might have to lay off