Chicago at Detroit (12/05/2010)

Away:  Chicago [6-4-1 ATS]
Home:  Detroit [7-4 ATS]

Game Time: 1:00 PM
Stadium: Ford Field

Recent Meetings:
09/12/10 - DET 14 vs. CHI 19

Team Leaders:

Chicago:
Passing: Jay Cutler (2311)
Rushing: Matt Forte (684)
Receiving: Johnny Knox (740)

Detroit:
Passing: Shaun Hill (2206)
Rushing: Jahvid Best (390)
Receiving: Calvin Johnson (806)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

CHICAGO  - 3.5

Detroit starting 3rd string QB.  Bears strength is defense.  One rule I usually play by that cashes in very often.  When a 3rd string QB starts against a solid defense, I go against the QB.

In this case Stanton played pretty well in his only extended action of the year, and Lions covered in the loss to the Giants.  HOWEVER, Stanton did come off the bench to replace Hill in that game.  Meaning, the Giants did not gameplan all week for Stanton.  Huge difference.   Now the Bears know Stanton will start and can gameplan pressure, etc to magnify his weaknesses.  And with the line at -3.5...buying the half point and taking the Bears.

BTW...here's Stanton's 2009 totals (his only significant playing time before this year)...

QB Rating -   26.1

Completion % -   51%  (26 of 51)

Yards -  259

TDs -  0

INTs -  6  (INT every 8.5 passes)

Sacked -  5 times  (sack every 10 passes)

In every way do these stats tell me the 3rd string QB rule against a good defense is in play here.   Bears -3 (buying 1/2) large

I like Chi and the under

Chi 24- Det 9

I see the line has moved up to +5, but you know what? Cutler's still Cutler, and he's overdue for one of those 5 interception games where he also gets knocked down like 7 times, and sacked twice. Coming off of a high from the Eagles win, this is the perfect storm for one of those types of games.

LIONS

 - {money}

+ - {plus}

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just a small play though