Quote Originally Posted by Kranked:
You cant compare Mannings record to your mentioned Bengals TNF stats. Of course it's wise to look back how a certain player did in a specific spot. But justify a pick with a sample-size of 2 games? The Bengals were a complete different team back in 2006 - and a complete different franchise in 1997. Do you look at the Broncos stats from '92 to '95 if wanna know about their chances winning a game today? Looking at stats is just smart if you interpret them the right way!
I play fantasy football, and i know: Fantasy Football is not Real Football. I started Eli yesterday - 20+ points - did he play well? No, he played complete bullshit until the 4th quarter...just garbage time points.
That being said, Dalton struggles, the Defense is far away from its form of recent years. Dont get me wrong, i dont think the browns will walk in and blow the bengals off the field. If you think the bengals are the better play here - fine - but I just wanted you to reconsider why the bengals are such a good play?
Some Bengals stats:
- cumulated ATS Margin over the last 5 games: -59
- avg passing yards per game L3: 191
- opponents rush yard per attemp L3: 4.8
I would not bet on a team thats struggling on both sides of the ball recently.
Do you listen to what you even post? How many times just this season alone where "garbage time" fantasy points ends up giving the favorite team a nail biting loss. Hmmm...Lemme make a really easy example just off one game alone this previous Sunday.
Raiders getting 15 points on the road in Seattle, getting BLOWN out at the half easily covering that spread, comes all the way BACK within 6 points and just lost the onside catch after they dropped the ball.
So explain to me how garbage time scores don't count towards a spread?
I'll explain why I believe that the Bengals are the better play.
1. They're better at home and their record proves it
2. Cleveland sucks on the road and their record proves it
3. Bengals have a little healthier Green on Thu over Sun
4. They have 1 star receiver and 1 good receiver that's noticed now
5. They will have to resort to more of an air attack if Bernard doesn't play
6. Cincy typically airs the ball out more than Cleveland and will do so more this Thu because of #5
7. Browns average a little over 20 points on the road.
8. Cincy averages almost 31 points at home
The differential between #7-8 makes me feel that Cincy will cover since it's almost an 11 point difference.
I've checked the other stats such as offense, defense, etc and it's not enough of a difference to make me worried that Cincy can't cover the spread.
If you spot something good worth nothing the other way, I'm genuinely interested because in the end, we're all here to help each other win money, not gripe about who is better than who or who's team is the best.
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