Denver at Baltimore (10/10/2010)

Quote Originally Posted by TheGreatest12:

This line should be 4 and 1/2 to 5 at the most.  Take the points here.

Quote Originally Posted by ewillie169:

DEN +7 (3units): In the past 3 weeks, Denver upset the Titans, blew out the Seattle and outplayed the Colts in a loss (they had more 1st downs 23-18, and more passing yards 472-325). The Ravens may be in a let down mode after their win over Pittsburgh last week, i'm just sayin. Score: Broncos 21-Ravens 24.

Quote Originally Posted by wangichu:



anything you know, the books know too.  There's a reason this line is up to a full touchdown.  the broncos are not ready for THIS physical of a team.  They got hammered by the steelers and ravens last year and they haven't improved as much as either of those teams, and off an inflated win against an overvalued team last week, it almost looks like they should be a good play here, but the ravens are too good to let a one dimensional team beat them here, especially considering they have the better stronger defense.

if you like the broncos here, maybe roll them out in the first half, because the ravens will wear them down over the course of this one.

BAL -7

Quote Originally Posted by wangichu:



anything you know, the books know too.  There's a reason this line is up to a full touchdown.  the broncos are not ready for THIS physical of a team.  They got hammered by the steelers and ravens last year and they haven't improved as much as either of those teams, and off an inflated win against an overvalued team last week, it almost looks like they should be a good play here, but the ravens are too good to let a one dimensional team beat them here, especially considering they have the better stronger defense.

if you like the broncos here, maybe roll them out in the first half, because the ravens will wear them down over the course of this one.

BAL -7

Quote Originally Posted by TheGreatest12:



I look at it like this...

In a nutshell, the Broncos / Ravens game should be very interesting. We of the exciting passing attack, and they of the shutdown passing defense. But is this really the Baltimore team of old......the team that put fear in every opponent?? I say no.......I believe they are solid on D, and average on O....but not scary.

When I compare stats, I think we have a great opportunity to win back to back games on the road. I also believe that a good thing can happen on the road for 2 straight games......bonding and fewer distractions. That may be a soft benefit, but it does give one cause for optimism.

Back to the facts and stats...

Baltimore is playing good ball for sure, but their early season is a mixed bag of opponents......the Jets weren't in it in game one, Cincy needs Palmer to play like he can, Cleveland is not a primary team, and the Steelers with Ben would have won handily. Having said that, the Ravens did themselves well, and beating the Steelers is not an easy feat. Statwise the numbers are open to some debate:

- Pass D is #1.....but their backfield is not the backfield of old, and surprisingly they are 17th in the league in sacks, and 31st in interceptions, with a measly one! Sure, one can never knock a D with Lewis, Ngata and Suggs, to name a few. But this area leaves some room for us to make headway, whether or not they are #1.
- Rush D is #21.....not sure that this is a bad stat, but it is a bit confusing, given the strength of their front 7. Given that we do not have a run game (last in the league) YET, this is not a good situation for us, but 21st in the league suggests this could be the week we start to gel, and produce.

One more stat.....which applies to Baltimore's total D, they are in 23rd in forced fumbles, another uneventful stat that makes me scratch my head about their overall ability to dominate on D.

- Pass O is #15.....they have some experienced receiving talent but their QB rating is only 70.4%...not good. Flacco is vulnerable so far this year.
- Rush O is #24.....this stat is a little misleading, because Ray Rice has been injured, and could break out. BUT our run D is surprisingly strong - 12th in the NFL, and is starting to get it done.

Overall, on paper the Ravens appear to be the Ravens, on D anyway, but I don't see them as the Ravens of old, especially against the run. And those sack/interception numbers suggest that they are far from being a #1 pass D. Therefore, I do believe Orton and our ever-improving receiver corps can make some serious dents in Baltimore's pass D stats this week. I expect us to continue to exploit this aspect of our game.

As for their run game, we need to keep that little Rice down, at least for one more week. So far Baltimore has mediocre run production. And based on the last two games, we are definitely capable of keeping their run game in check. And I do not consider a 70% QB rating as something to panic about. I have a feeling that we may take advantage here, and turnovers could be a key to the game.

My gut is that we need 20 points to win this one. Baltimore has only chalked up games of - 10, 10, 24 and 17 points to date. Not very productive.

I do worry about Rice "showing up", and Housh/Boldin playing to the level of the chips on their shoulders, but we seriously have a chance on Sunday. If Kyle plays his game, our rush D plays their game, and our STs keep things (and people) in front of them......20 points should do it.

Quote Originally Posted by wangichu:

all that said, greatest, I don't want to be a d*** as I respect that you put a lot more thought into this play than a lot of people, so good luck on your other wagers but I can't wish you luck here when my money's going the other way.

Quote Originally Posted by TheGreatest12:



I don't need luck.  No shot in hell of B-more covering this spread.