Denver at San Diego (10/19/2009)

This S.D. team was out-rushed 177-16 in Pittsburgh and trailed 28-0 in the third quarter. The biggest problem has been key injuries in the OL and losses in the DL (injured DT Jamal Williams & departed DE Igor Olshansky). The Chargers trail the league in rush offense (54 ypg). BUT they have done well vs. Denver, winning & covering last three meetings in S.D., including last year’s AFC West-deciding game. However, is it not true that in 2009, the Broncos run better and defend much better (8.6 ppg) than S.D.? And, QB Orton has only one interception.

I like Denver in this game SU But plan to tease this one and get Denver +10.5 and Over 35. SD scored 28 on Pitt’s D in the 3^rd and 4^th quarters. If I remember correctly, there was a stat out there on how many points are scored in the 4^th quarter on MNF and it was quite high.

As a matter of fact, I just did the math. Going back 5 weeks with 6 games on Monday night, only 20 points total were scored in the 3^rd BUT 127 points were scored in the 4^th quarter. That averages out to 21.66 points in the 4^th quarter and an average of 24.5 points scored in the 2^nd half.

Lowest point total in the 2^nd half was 18 points on 10/5

Highest point total for the 2^nd half was 35 points last week.

Throw out the lowest and the highest and you have an average of 23.5 points being scored in the 2^nd half alone. Maybe this is a good half time wager???

Teasing Denver to +10.5 and taking An over of 38 would mean I’d only need 15 points in the 1^st half IF the averages hold up.

Final wager: Denver +10.5 and Over 38 {7 Point teaser}

Good luck to all!