Covers has the line at GB-14 and I don't see another one for this game. GB is a little banged up and so is GB. Being this is a divisional game it should be hard faught by both teams. GB has won and covered in 7 of the L-8 meeting. They missed a -11 cover by one point only winning that game by 10 pts. On the grass the Lions are just 2-18 SU in their L-20 games but is 9-10-1 ATS in those games. Last week the Lions played well in the first half before losing and going scoreless in the 2nd half at Minnesota. I think that with a more mobile QB, in Rodgers, the Lions will be hard pressed to win this game. GB's running game is not good without their start RB and the Lions will see more passing than runs. The Lions pass defense is beyond suspect.
Pick = Green Bay-14 pts.
My Guesstimate = Green Bay-38 Detroit-17
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Covers has the line at GB-14 and I don't see another one for this game. GB is a little banged up and so is GB. Being this is a divisional game it should be hard faught by both teams. GB has won and covered in 7 of the L-8 meeting. They missed a -11 cover by one point only winning that game by 10 pts. On the grass the Lions are just 2-18 SU in their L-20 games but is 9-10-1 ATS in those games. Last week the Lions played well in the first half before losing and going scoreless in the 2nd half at Minnesota. I think that with a more mobile QB, in Rodgers, the Lions will be hard pressed to win this game. GB's running game is not good without their start RB and the Lions will see more passing than runs. The Lions pass defense is beyond suspect.
yeah, i normally don't like making plays that look this vanilla, but the pack last year made a habit of pounding on crappy teams and as well as the lions have played, they are still who they are and are almost due to just get blown out and the packers have been happy to oblige in the past, covering 7 of their last 8 meetings including a -11 and -14 last year.
Packers are 4-0 ATS last 4 laying double digits and have a lot of fire after last night's crapper. It was a game in which a superbowl caliber team played poorly in many facets and choked that game away to the upstart bears. That sets up an epic bounceback game in which they should outright murder the feeble lions who's run game has been less effective than people realize with best getting most of his yards out of the backfield. Then you go up against a very top tier pass rush and secondary with noodle armed shaun hill and things are looking very dismal.
The lions improved pass rush may have it's moments, but aaron rodgers is too good at picking up and dissecting coverage and scrambling and making plays with his feet when the pocket collapses. Spread's already sitting at 14.5 so i'll buy it down to 14 just in case of a repeat of the minnesota game, but i can't see the lions doing that well against the pack.
GB -14
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yeah, i normally don't like making plays that look this vanilla, but the pack last year made a habit of pounding on crappy teams and as well as the lions have played, they are still who they are and are almost due to just get blown out and the packers have been happy to oblige in the past, covering 7 of their last 8 meetings including a -11 and -14 last year.
Packers are 4-0 ATS last 4 laying double digits and have a lot of fire after last night's crapper. It was a game in which a superbowl caliber team played poorly in many facets and choked that game away to the upstart bears. That sets up an epic bounceback game in which they should outright murder the feeble lions who's run game has been less effective than people realize with best getting most of his yards out of the backfield. Then you go up against a very top tier pass rush and secondary with noodle armed shaun hill and things are looking very dismal.
The lions improved pass rush may have it's moments, but aaron rodgers is too good at picking up and dissecting coverage and scrambling and making plays with his feet when the pocket collapses. Spread's already sitting at 14.5 so i'll buy it down to 14 just in case of a repeat of the minnesota game, but i can't see the lions doing that well against the pack.
takin the over. It's the NFL. the home dog wins over 60% of the time. not an opinion......it's a FACT. but GB is going to be FIGHTING MAD coming off a loss. and detroit does suck........
FUDGE....if I had to take a side I would take detroit +14.5
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takin the over. It's the NFL. the home dog wins over 60% of the time. not an opinion......it's a FACT. but GB is going to be FIGHTING MAD coming off a loss. and detroit does suck........
FUDGE....if I had to take a side I would take detroit +14.5
Favorites of 12.5 or more are just 7-26 ATS since 1989 when coming off a loss as a road favorite. The idea there is if you lost you probably aren't playing your best football and probably shouldn't be huge favorites. To go in line with that road underdogs of 12.5 or more cover 65% of the time in division rival games. The reasoning there is that divisional games tend to be closer because of the rivalry factory and your getting the extra 3 for being on thr road. This falls into both categories so you gotta go Lions.
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Favorites of 12.5 or more are just 7-26 ATS since 1989 when coming off a loss as a road favorite. The idea there is if you lost you probably aren't playing your best football and probably shouldn't be huge favorites. To go in line with that road underdogs of 12.5 or more cover 65% of the time in division rival games. The reasoning there is that divisional games tend to be closer because of the rivalry factory and your getting the extra 3 for being on thr road. This falls into both categories so you gotta go Lions.
Favorites of 12.5 or more are just 7-26 ATS since 1989 when coming off a loss as a road favorite. The idea there is if you lost you probably aren't playing your best football and probably shouldn't be huge favorites. To go in line with that road underdogs of 12.5 or more cover 65% of the time in division rival games. The reasoning there is that divisional games tend to be closer because of the rivalry factory and your getting the extra 3 for being on thr road. This falls into both categories so you gotta go Lions.
thanks for the info. this is what i need....TRENDS
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Quote Originally Posted by dcdolphin:
Favorites of 12.5 or more are just 7-26 ATS since 1989 when coming off a loss as a road favorite. The idea there is if you lost you probably aren't playing your best football and probably shouldn't be huge favorites. To go in line with that road underdogs of 12.5 or more cover 65% of the time in division rival games. The reasoning there is that divisional games tend to be closer because of the rivalry factory and your getting the extra 3 for being on thr road. This falls into both categories so you gotta go Lions.
thanks for the info. this is what i need....TRENDS
Big Lions fan here and although they played a great game against Chicago (all players healthy), Philly let them back into the game, and last week was the Lions that we are used to. Shaun Hill won't go deep until the Lions are down 17 points in the 4th quarter and Jahvid Best isn't 100%. I don't like picking against the Lions nor do I like taking a DD fave in the NFL, but look for the Lions to settle into the usual until Stafford comes back and Best is healthy.
Detroit - 9 Green Bay - 31
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Big Lions fan here and although they played a great game against Chicago (all players healthy), Philly let them back into the game, and last week was the Lions that we are used to. Shaun Hill won't go deep until the Lions are down 17 points in the 4th quarter and Jahvid Best isn't 100%. I don't like picking against the Lions nor do I like taking a DD fave in the NFL, but look for the Lions to settle into the usual until Stafford comes back and Best is healthy.
Rogers has yet to have "that game" and he was picked to be 1st or 2nd best this season in QB. I hate any spread over 13 but the Lions secondary mixed with my belief in breaking a trend lead me to say
GB 38
DET 17
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Rogers has yet to have "that game" and he was picked to be 1st or 2nd best this season in QB. I hate any spread over 13 but the Lions secondary mixed with my belief in breaking a trend lead me to say
I hate laying 14.5 with anybody but rodgers might throw it 55 times in this game against a poor pass defense , over 45 is almost a lock for me there should be tons of yardage in this game.
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I hate laying 14.5 with anybody but rodgers might throw it 55 times in this game against a poor pass defense , over 45 is almost a lock for me there should be tons of yardage in this game.
Lions always seem to play the packers right at the number, especially at Lambeau.
Lions D-Line is much improved and the Packers can't run the ball for shit right now. You better believe old McCarthy will want to get the running game on track a little in this one, i.e. play conservative.
I'd lean under in this one, don't see the Lions putting up more than 10 points.
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No value in this line at -14-
Lions always seem to play the packers right at the number, especially at Lambeau.
Lions D-Line is much improved and the Packers can't run the ball for shit right now. You better believe old McCarthy will want to get the running game on track a little in this one, i.e. play conservative.
I'd lean under in this one, don't see the Lions putting up more than 10 points.
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