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Indianapolis at Houston (10/09/2014)

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Posts: 71

Dogjimbo

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 17491

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 3:00 AM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by TheQuadYeah:

Short week, Houston travelled from Houston, to Dallas, to Houston, and they lost. Why should I pick the Colts? Andy Luck? That's it? The guy has to lose some of the games some of the time, he's not Jesus "walking on water".....

I say Texans straight up. Dallas misses that FG last week, would the line be for the home dogs??? NO.............

Texans, keep your 3 points, not gonna need 'em........

I'm going HOUSTON +3

QUAD... Why the cuffs Brother? What did you do?

sportuneteller

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 15

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 5:22 AM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by jrgumpert:

With 70% of the public on Indy ........... this just doesn't make sense. both of these teams are going to be 8-8 when the season's done. Give me the home team getting 3. Again, this just makes no sense, 70% of the pub on the road fav here, what am I missing?

What your missing is Houston has Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Colts have Luck. 90% of the time, the public is going to favor the better QB. I think the public happens to be right in this one. It's much easier to pass after a short week, than it is to run. If Houston covers, they'll need a few TO's. It would probably be wise to wait til close to kick off if you like Hou. You may be able to get 3.5. I don't bet spreads of less than 4, so I think Colts ML is the $$.

Skipbone

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 6368

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 5:39 AM ET #28

It's easier to pass than run after a short week? Where is the data to support that premise?

Penntastic

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 5

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 6:24 AM ET #29

I gotta be honest but whatever the consensus is on these threads the opposite seems to happen on covers- prolly due to a lot of broke sport bettors who have nothing better to do but give their bad picks that got them broke in the first place...

sportuneteller

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 15

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 7:12 AM ET #30

Yet, you are still reading the posts.

sportuneteller

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 15

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 7:39 AM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by Skipbone:

It's easier to pass than run after a short week? Where is the data to support that premise?

The sample size of Thursday night games is too small too make a viable analysis. My statement was based on logic. There is data that says RB's are injured 3x more often than WRs. They take the most punishment and require the most recovery time. If you decrease recovery time, you decrease his performance capacity. QB/WR/TE may not be hit in the previous game. A RB is guaranteed to be hit a min 15-30x. There are lots of articles that quote players complaining about Thurs games…Read some.

Coloneljim

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 25027

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 8:15 AM ET #32

Houston - 24 Indianapolis - 21

Texans +3 under 47

Bill O'Brien get a win on the big stage. Texans lay claim to first place.

Houston - Under

Spitdudes

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 110

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 10:01 AM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by Penntastic:

I gotta be honest but whatever the consensus is on these threads the opposite seems to happen on covers- prolly due to a lot of broke sport bettors who have nothing better to do but give their bad picks that got them broke in the first place...

you can tell from the posts, that its mostly, nickle and dimers', most likely using an online book.. The big hitters don't post, or even refer to sites.... It's comparing a Kia owner to a Lexus owner. that is also why you see Lexus and financial planning ads on the prime time Tv games. they don't advertise to the penniless, 18-30 year old fantasy players..

Spitdudes

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 110

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 10:01 AM ET #34

and, if you bet opposite of common opinion, you WILL WIN!

Blackjay

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 980

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 10:59 AM ET #35

Ok lets see... since week 1 on Thursday Nite Football only one underdog has covered and that was the NY Giants against Washington and the Giants were on the road that game. Other than that all the favorites have covered each week. Its screaming home underdog tonite because none have won yet and alot of money is on Indy tonite. Vegas has been giving you gifts for this set up right here with a divisional first place game on the line. I believe Houston+3 is the safest play here. They may win the game straight up in the home underdog spot! Good luck to you all!

moho

Hall of Fame

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 21783

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 11:34 AM ET #36

-Divisional game with sole possession up for grabs
-Colts seeking 10th straight Thursday victory,7 have come on the road.
-Home team won 4 of 5 Thursday matchups this year.
-Colts won 3 straight vs Texans
- Luck, hasn't thrown a touchdown but has run for 3 while going 2-0 on Thursday nights.

Colts -3.0

Fingers702

Prospect

Joined: May, 2014

Posts: 44

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 12:46 PM ET #37

Like the Colts here, I feel as though the spread should be a bid bigger, hoping this one isn't a trap... never the less, colts and the over seems like the only bet, glta

JP13

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 1586

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 1:00 PM ET #38

Obviously all of 'the public' is not on Indy, if that were the case then I would not have been able to just lock it in @ -2.5 on both of my sites without buying the hook.

Just b/c you see the covers consensus pick favorite, doesn't necessarily mean that the 'betting public' is all over it.

Indy has big Freeman back as of this past week, should help them slow down the run and possibly get to the Shiztpatrick for the sack attack...

Colts -2.5 ....... BOL gang

Digitalkarma

Legend

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 57776

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 1:17 PM ET #39

Quote Originally Posted by CappingVet:

How does any of this nonsense apply to tomorrow;s game? I mean seriously? Every week is different, let alone every year. How does Manning and Harrison's performance against different houston teams mean d*ck with this years rosters? Im just trying to help you kids, i did this professionally for years. I also scouted pro ball for 28 years. Learn football, develop angles, mix in some gut feel, and dont make stupid plays like these idiots who laid 21 points with BYU a couple of weeks ago when they lost straight up. or those who took an unproven perenially choking cinci team with an average qb on the road against new england. Follow those steps and youll be fine. And take Indy -2.5 tomorrow.

It doesn't. The trends dont have any bearing on this game at all in the way teams prepare. I was just saying ATS trends are interesting to look at and how one team seems to have a favorable outcome despite a different year with a different cast of players if by some dumb superstitious luck. Like the New York Giants beating the Patriots twice in the Super Bowl for example. 4 years apart. Same scenario. Same outcome.

Sip on that plus money honey!

RedStick

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 776

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 3:04 PM ET #40

Not over thinking this one, Colts on a roll and are the better team ! Under as well, looking for a low scoring game ......

BOLTA

RonBurgundy808

Banned

Joined: Jan, 2014

Posts: 2005

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 3:05 PM ET #41

Indy for the LARGE

mybestbet

Banned

Joined: Jun, 2014

Posts: 1226

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 3:14 PM ET #42

Colts +10

Under 54

(Teased for 7)

skeets83

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 793

Posted: Oct. 9, 2014 - 3:22 PM ET #43

TY Hilton (Colts) Total Receiving Yards Over 75.5. Hilton averaged 90 plus receiving yards vs Houston last year and is playing outstanding football these days. Expecting a big night from him.