New England at San Diego (10/24/2010)

Away:  New England [2-2-1 ATS]
Home:  San Diego [2-4 ATS]

Game Time: 4:15 PM
Stadium: Qualcomm Stadium

Recent Meetings:
N/A

Team Leaders:

New England:
Passing: Tom Brady (1203)
Rushing: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (235)
Receiving: Aaron Hernandez (301)

San Diego:
Passing: Philip Rivers (2008)
Rushing: Michael Tolbert (295)
Receiving: Malcom Floyd (513)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

thinking chargers heavy.  pretty good spot for them/bad spot for the pats.

I keep thinking that every week for the Chargers...

If they don't win ALL four of their next games(NE and TENN-home, Houston-road, then Denver-home) and get to 6-4 then, I believe their season could be up in smoke.

After these four games they have Indy-Road, Oakland, KC, SF all home followed by Cincy and Denver on the road to end their regular season. I don't think that Cincy and Denver will be in a position to be resting players for the playoffs so they will play hard in those games.

They are gonna have to go at least 10-6 for a shot at the West. The wildcard is not coming outta the west by the looks of it now.

With KC's schedule... they look to be NO LESS than a 10-6 team "right now" in my opinion.

Early lean on SD. . . will see on game time

I hear you but, i've been fading them on the road or not playing them early, but after 2 straight losses and coming home where they are a lot better.  They're defense is surprisingly good, we all know rivers is legit and that they play strong at home.  Pats are off a tough home win and now travelling where they have yet to prove they can play over the last two years (in division wins are all they can seem to get on the road since 2008) and their defense is so young and vulnerable.

On top of all that, the chargers are 3-3 and the pats are 4-1, so it seems VERY clear that the pats are the better team on a neutral field, yet the line came out at -3... tantalizing for anyone who thinks it's time to hop on the pat's bandwagon.  Trust that they wouldn't be favored by 3 in this situation if they weren't good for it.  If they were going to lose, the books would have favored the pats to make this a little more balanced money wise (see tennessee on monday favored on the road against a team with the same record). 

I'll look into this more, but there's a high likelihood that this is my heaviest bet of the week.  Week 7 is where the chargers historically start getting it together and I will probably be betting them in most of those games that you mentioned.  They'll get revenge on the chiefs and raiders, they'll cover against indy because they always do and they'll get a pretty fat spread, and if they're team is back on track, they'll beat poser ass cincy and wannabe denver too.

I know the chargers have burned a lot of money off, but now is when it's time to start dialing them up.  They do this every year, and despite a bad record with some bad losses, they have the stats of a much better team and that tends to mean wins are on the way.

DONT THROW UR MONEY AWAY ON THE CHARGERS TAKE THE PATS MONEYLINE. THEY ARE EMERGING QUICKLY AS A DEFENSE AND HAVE ENOUGH OFFENSIVELY TO MOVE THE BALL AND SCORE POINTS.   PATS MONEYLINE!!!!!!

I agree NE +2.5

Leaning Chargers here but should get a better line before kick off.  The Chargers are talented, desperate and at home.  Long flight for NE and game does not mean as much to them.

Sharpie: Did you just say winning a football game doesn't mean much to Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the New England Patriots, the same team who have not lost a football game at home in forever and the only team since 1972 who was 1 game away from a perfect season?? Did I read that right? Even if they didn't want to win which is a joke statement within itself would they want to lose to the lowly Chargers who have lost to the the Rams and Raiders back to back???? Every game means more to NE than SD even as desperate as they are for a win.

NE +3 (2units): shady line, but i'll take Brady and Bellicek. Score: Patriots 42-Chargers 27

NE/SD OVER 47 (2units): pts will fly over 60.

CHARGERS ARE TALENTED BUT CONTRACT PROBLEMS AND INJURIES HAVE CLEARLY BEEN A MAJOR SETBACK FOR THEM THIS YEAR.  THE LINE IS EXACTLY WHAT I EXPECTED SD -3.  THE CHARGERS ARE A STATISTICAL ANOMALY.  THEY COULD EASILY BE 4-2 OR 5-1 AND THEY ARE AT HOME, PLAYING IN A CRITICAL GAME AND ARE DESPERATE TO GET IN THE WIN COLUMN AFTER BACK TO BACK DEVASTATING LOSSES ON THE ROAD TO TWO INFERIOR TEAMS TALENT WISE.  PATRIOTS ARE PLAYING GREAT AND SEEM TO HAVE ALL THE ELEMENTS OF A SERIOUS CONTENDER. THEY ARE IMPROVING EACH WEEK AS A DEFENSE AND BRADY AND THE OFFENSE HAVE SHOWN THEY CAN MOVE THE BALL WITHOUT MOSS. 1ST IN THE NFL IN SCORING (30 PG)  THEIR SPECIAL TEAMS HAVE ALSO BEEN HUGE THIS SEASON.  I REALIZE THAT THEY ARE ON THE ROAD AND COMING OFF A TOUGH PHYSICAL OT GAME TO BALTIMORE BUT I LIKE THEM HERE.

THE STATISTICS DEFENSIVELY HEAVILY FAVOR THE CHARGERS, IN FACT ITS NOT EVEN CLOSE. BUT I CAN TELL YOU FROM WATCHING EVERY PATS GAME AND CHARGERS GAMES THAT THE CHARGERS HAVE LACK THE BIG PLAY AND SEEM TO FOLD UNDER PRESSURE.  THERES A REASON WHY ONE TEAM IS 2-3 AND ANOTHER IS  4-1 WITHOUT JACKSON AND MERRIMAN AND WITH  FLOYD, GATES AND KAEDING ALL QUESTIONABLE PATS WILL PULL THIS ONE OUT. 

 

PATS 31-24

I totally agree that the Pats offense clicked last week.  I am still not convince yet, about their young defense, especially when playing on the road.  They haven't played a team with a high potent offense.  I'm not saying the Chargers are high potent.  But the Chargers always show up against the Pats, and I really hate them for that.  With their body language during the games, the Chargers didn't give a $hit when playing their divisional foes. Hell, they LET the Raiders win (sorry, Raiders fans).

The Pats defense is going to determine the game.  I hope Brandon Meriweather doesn't soften up after getting fined for schooling Todd Heap.  As a Pats fan, I think i'll just get the popcorn and see a fire show at the game.  I will be on the OVER!  GL to your pick.

Chargers at home plus points !  They do suck on the road but play pretty damn good at home.  Hard to bet against the Pats here but my early lean in Chargers plus the points .....

Chargers

having acknowledged the same thing that i have seen, it's clear that your money is going the way of blind homerism.  The pats have always played strong at home, but look up their home road splits.  It's pretty bad.  The youth on the pats clearly does not travel well and they are up against a better team that is a wounded animal, off two straight bad losses.

I know you said this line is "what you expected", but especially when public perception is included here, there's no way the chargers a 2-4 team, should even be favored against the public loved 4-1 pats, unless the chargers were the right call here, the pats is just too easy seeming of a bet.

in terms of defensive lines, the chargers' ranks 13th against the run and 1st against the pass, both 15 ranks higher than the pats d-line.  in terms of overall defense, the chargers rank 4th overall in defense compared to the pats at 23rd overall, specifically the chargers are 3rd overall vs the pass, compared to the pats at 27th.  Neither team is strong against the run (SD at 14, NE at 17), but neither team has done much running this year, though the chargers are the team that perennially has a much stronger run game.

Chargers are 2-0 at home SU/ATS and the pats are 1-1 SU/ATS on the road and that is only a microchasm of their home/road splits from last year which strongly indicate that the pats are overvalued on the road.

Sure the pats have looked better at times but that defense has hardly done anything worth betting on and the chargers will get things going like they do at home.

SD -3 (HEAVY)

 

I wasn't saying that the Patsies don't WANT to win or that it doesn't mean much to them.  I AM saying that it means much MORE to the Chargers.  As bad as they have played on the road, they are capable of sooo much more.  They can no way afford to lose a fifth game so early.  Haven't you ever seen a game where one team just wants it more?  The coaching staff has been getting slammed in the local papers all week and the players are embarrassed!  Plus, they don't like NE anyway due to the tough playoff losses heads up over the years.  San Diego will be at home in front of a sell out crowd and will do everything they can to pull this out.  I wasn't expecting to lay points here and was surprised to see the -3.  But I guess the line makers are pretty smart.

ummm... chargers are giving points, not getting points ;)

Chargers have one of the worst head coaches in the nfl . On the flip side the pats have one of the best. Larry English, pass rusher for s.d has been out and it's been showing. If you give brady time he'll eat you alive. If S.D does turn it around it's not gonna be this week.

Game of the year. Don't pay your mortgage until after this game is over. Take the Chargers due to the cross country travel syndrome and the fact that the Pats don't have a stretch the field type receiver anymore now that Moss is gone. The cover two will create 1.5 interceptions and the Chargers are going to start their annual 2nd half of the season explosion. I will be putting up a LOT oF MONEY on this game.

Chargers-2.5 getting off of that key number with a hook buy

Wang,  you can discount 2008 because Cassel was the qb, but its hard to justify such a drastic differential record wise on the road last year in 2009, but the record can be viewed from a different perspective. A combination of poor execution and failure to make second half adjustments lef them to losses In 6 of the 8 road games which they led at the half in 7 of them only to blow the lead late in the game. They've had a busy offseason in which they've made numerous  moves, drafting several defensive players who have produced immediately (Brandon Spikes, Jermaine Cunningham, and Devin Mccourty) and with the return of a healthy Jarod Mayo and Belichick assuming the role of both offensive and defensive coordinator they are much different team..  I might appear to be a homer, but im objective and realistic and i have watched the chargers play this season, they are not good. The Patriots have made adjustments all season long.  Most nfl games usually comes down to turnovers and overrlooked aspects such as coaching and special teams , both of which the Pats have the edge on paper, which is usually the difference between winning and losing. The chargers have seemed to regress after that playoff loss to the jets last season and the carryover is self evident. The injuries and failure to sign key impact players have hurt them big time.  Seriously tho, its been a cake schedule and they havent had one formidable opponent and their 2-4!  Meanwhile the Pats have played some of the better defenses in the nfl (jets, ravens and maybe the dolphins) and they were one bad half from being 5-0.  I see parallels between this Patriots team and the ones from their Superbowl years.  So far this season the are Patriots progressing as a team and the chargers regressing!  The one thing about the Pats is they've never had a shutdown defense, but they capitalize on turnovers, make key red zone stops, and always give Brady more than enough time to execute. NO JACKSON, NO MERRIMAN, NO NEIL, NO ENGLISH, NO NANNEE, NO FLOYD, NO GATES, NO KAEDING, NO CHANCE!!!

 

PATS MONEYLINE

My first Large NFL play of the year. SD-2.5 LARGE. BOL !

Bottomline is the Pats will win the SB.  Bold statement, I know.

 

On this game is there really anyody who will bet on SD.  I would like to watch all of you who bet on SD and then laugh next week if thats ok with you.  If my Pats don't win SU I will never post again.  Scouts honor

i was saying SD all week, but who is Rivers throwing to???.....

Post Count: 4

Pats +3