New Orleans at Indianapolis (02/07/2010)

    Teams, year in & out, that fail to dominate their opponents statistically in the Champoinship game, make very poor prospects either SU or ATS!   

  INDY     --  4.5  !!      

     Ask yourself- Do you honestly believe, in your head or with your heart, that the Saints can win or cover in this SB??

Then how is it that a 40 year old , injured QB, on a team that committed 5 TO's,which dominated you statistically 2 to 1, with the score tied 28 all, and in your "house" with 19 seconds left, come damn close to ending your dream season? Bet with your head-not with your heart! Teams make their destiny on the playing field, not by dreaming about it!

 COLTS     -- 4.5 / M.L. preferred!

I'm on the UNDER...

In my opinion the total will climb to 57-58... I'll wait for Feb 7th for that wager...

I can see the Colts moneyline increasing within these 2 weeks so I'll probalby bet this.... NOW....

31-17 Colts... but taking the moneyline just in case we have a  back-door cover

Colts defense has kept offenses in check and after the 2 defenses they just ripped apart, they are not being stopped....

Colts in the Under..... the Saints will get their first road test of the year....

LETS FACE IT, YOU MUST BE BLOODY STUPID NOT TO REALIZE THAT THE SAINTS WERE UNDER PAR TODAY. THATS NOT THE SAINTS WE SEEN LAST WEEK. SHOCKEY SHOULD BE BACK TO FULL STRENGTH WITH TWO WEEKS REST.

THE WHO DAT NATION WIN THE SUPERBOWL........DO YOU NOT REALIZE ITS DESTINY!

SAINT ML

call me retarded.  I'm pickin indy to win SU.  but I can see New Orleans covering +4.5.  I'm not betting on either team.  I'm taking the over.  I'm saying it will be a 35-30 or 45-40 type of score.  point total of 56?  that's it?   RIde the OVER big time.  it will be over 56 by the 3rd quarter.  watch

For all you who didn't check the home page article;

of The last pairing of playoff games ended up being the most exciting of the entire postseason.

It’s a damn shame we have to wait two weeks for the grand finale.

Super Bowl XLIV will commence in Miami on February 7, with the Indianapolis Colts squaring off against the New Orleans Saints.

Covers.com caught up with oddsmaker Pete Korner late Sunday night and bombarded him with a cavalcade of questions regarding the Super Bowl matchup.

“The two best teams in the NFL made it,” said Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas. “This looks like it’s going to be a great game and I think you have all of the necessary ingredients, but a lot of times there is a lot of build up for these big games and they go flat. This looks like it’s going to be a real super game and I can’t wait to see it, but who knows.”

Neither team stumbled into this game as we’ve seen in recent Super Bowls. The BCS should take a lesson because as Korner mentioned, this postseason tournament produced the two best teams in the league.

These squads were favorites to reach Super Sunday six games into the 2009 season. Each team was convincingly undefeated at that point – the Colts outscoring opponents by 17.2 points per game while the Saints’ margin of victory was 18.5 ppg.

Both offenses were consistently prolific as well. Although Indianapolis appeared to walk through games at times during the regular season, the offense finished ranked 13th in scoring at 23.6 ppg. New Orleans was the top-ranked offense at 28.9 ppg.

While the three highest totals in Super Bowl history are 55, 53.5 and 53 points, the offensive personnel these teams boast prompted a high total.

Korner and his Club sent out a total of 55, but most shops are currently working with a half point higher and some as high as 56 points.

“We’ve got two high-powered quarterbacks so this total definitely warranted a mid-50s number,” Korner said. “The Super Bowl becomes more or less a public game. Wiseguys’ money is usually washed out with all the money that comes in from everybody else and when we have a public game we know the tendency is to bet the over.”

Korner expects the total to keep rising during the early part of the week.

“We haven’t seen this type of total in a Super Bowl before so it’s going to be interesting,” he said. “If you are an under player I would just wait and see how high this number is going to get, and if it gets to 57 that probably is going to be the apex.”

The spread for the game opened at 3.5 or 4 at many offshore markets and almost instantaneously, sharp action inflated the number to 5 or 5.5.

Korner mentioned the Sports Club had an incredible season establishing lines, but admitted his team was well off when making the Super Bowl number.

“We put out the worst number we could have, we never thought it would be over 3,” stated Korner, who sent out the Colts at 3-even but believes the spread’s early fluctuation is a bit of an overreaction.

“As a group we were very surprised it went up that quickly, but I think it was because of the loose defense of New Orleans and how the Colts scored 30 on the NFL’s best defense,” he said. “I think the quick knee-jerk reaction was to put all the money on the Colts.”

Korner pointed out that less than one percent of the total bets the Super Bowl will incur were placed Sunday evening and estimates that only 10-15 percent of the handle will come in the first week of wagering.

“We’ll know by tomorrow or Tuesday where this thing’s just going to sit for a week to nine days,” said Korner, who predicts the line will eventually settle around 4.

Moneylines, team totals and halftime lines have already been posted for Super Bowl XLIV. Proposition bets, a Super Bowl favorite for the casual bettor, are scheduled to be released no later than Thursday.

A few historical Super Bowl stats to wet your whistle:

- The NFC narrowly holds the edge in Super Bowl history, winning 22 championships, but that conference’s representative has only emerged victorious once in the last six years.

- Since playoff seeding began in 1975, there have been eight occasions where the same numbered seeds reached the Super Bowl and the NFC won six of those games.

- In the 43-year history of the Super Bowl, only nine times has the favorite won the game, but failed to cover the spread.

Minny dominated that game folks.....The Saints were at home and got manhandled in total yards, first downs and big plays.  The only reason that Minny didn't win by 14 or more was the 5 TO's

The Saints had 77 yards of offense in the second half!!!!! Are you kidding me!!!!  Minny gave them the ball inside the 10 yardline for one of the two second half TD's.  Manning has won a SB.  Has a way with handling the ebbs and flows of a game that hasn't been seen in decades.  He is on pace, if he stays healthy, to break every QB record in the book!!!  The line is up a point already in the first 24 hours!!!!  Jump on this number now with the Colts before if gets close to 7!!!!!!!!   The Saints are soft.  They are too finesse in the face of pressure and close games.  They, just like the Jets have rode this train to the last stop.........next station.......Manning's second ring and a SB MVP. 

Play the odds people.......play the odds......Vegas loves the Colts......if they didn't, why were they 1 to 1 odds to win the SB after last week's Baltimore beat down?  Because Vegas knows they have a much better D than they get credit for with a superior QB and offense.  POUND ON THE COLTS!!!!

I have never been more confident in a SB in the last 10 years.  And this comes from a guy who took the Bears the last time Indy was in the SB!!! 

Great stat!! lol

That combined with peyton and what has proved to be a better colts d than expeted COLTS ROLL!!!

COLTS -5.5 FOR SURE AND MAYBE UNDER 56

Minny dominated that game folks.....The Saints were at home and got manhandled in total yards, first downs and big plays.  The only reason that Minny didn't win by 14 or more was the 5 TO's

The Saints had 77 yards of offense in the second half!!!!! Are you kidding me!!!!  Minny gave them the ball inside the 10 yardline for one of the two second half TD's.  Manning has won a SB.  Has a way with handling the ebbs and flows of a game that hasn't been seen in decades.  He is on pace, if he stays healthy, to break every QB record in the book!!!  The line is up a point already in the first 24 hours!!!!  Jump on this number now with the Colts before if gets close to 7!!!!!!!!   The Saints are soft.  They are too finesse in the face of pressure and close games.  They, just like the Jets have rode this train to the last stop.........next station.......Manning's second ring and a SB MVP. 

Play the odds people.......play the odds......Vegas loves the Colts......if they didn't, why were they 1 to 1 odds to win the SB after last week's Baltimore beat down?  Because Vegas knows they have a much better D than they get credit for with a superior QB and offense.  POUND ON THE COLTS!!!!

I have never been more confident in a SB in the last 10 years.  And this comes from a guy who took the Bears the last time Indy was in the SB!!! 

i agree.                                 sounds like u learned ur lesson by not betting on indy the last time around in the sb.  I called a bookie service back in Jan 2007....(I've never paid for their advice in my life...I'm proud to say...) and the guy "assured me" the bears would not only cover but win straight up as a free pick.  Now if u watched the game the Bears had a GREAT chance to win...but Rex Grossman really played so horrible he made even Trent Dilfer look like Tom Brady.  I would say Colts win all the way, but to cover more than -5.5 is a lil disrespectful.  1 thing to look at is trends.  I noticed that the 1st week the educated fans make the money go 1 way. Ex. the public bet BIG on the giants in the 2008 Sb with Pats v Giants that 1st week. the next week the so so fans bet big on the pats.   same with Pitt in 06. Public $$$$ are with Indy now.  I look at betting on the sb as the FINAL EXAM for educated fans.  DONT FLUNK OUT!!!!!!!!!!

Right now, I like the points with the Saints. I think the line/expected the line to be -3 mainly because of the Peyton/last game factor and I think the public play is Indy/Peyton. The line movement very much incorporates the last games played by each team and like the Texas/Alabama BCS champ contest, the last great game (Fla)/dud (Nebraska) is what most will tend to base their play on.

If you consider that the Colts beat out two teams that made the playoffs in their very last games of the season, and that they did not face SD, arguably, the best team in the AFC at the end of the season. The Pats and Bengals limped into the playoffs and did not provide much of a playoff-caliber opponent to benchmark the performance of the other teams. The SD game came down to an interception and a long run. Points can be argued, but I am trying keep level about how dominant the Colts are.

As for the Saints, they looked inferior to Minny, but give credit to Minny, but also give credit to NO and consider that good teams like the Saints can and do find ways to win (e.g., similar to this year's come-from behind Colts). Saints beat up a fairly athletic Cardinal team and should be given some credit for being able to fully utilize two weeks of preparation.

My point of this is that I am leaning the Saints plus the points because I think these two teams are very equal and it is bit of a coin toss, again except for the public love of Peyton and the last game played by each team.

Early lean... Colts -6

"It's Chess not Checkers"... Everyone knows the Saint's hand, before it's dealt. The Colt's run D will make this Saint's offense one demensional and let their safety's clean up the middle.

Colts allowed only 87 (Ravens) & 86 (Jets) rushing yards in their last two contests, while the Saints gave up 165 (Vikings) & 101 (Cardinals) in their last two. I'll remind you the Cardinals were playing from behind the entire game.

Both passing games are prolific, but who is the better QB? (I let you answer that for yourself) The Saints secondary showed very well last night, but is it enough? The Saints D got to Farve numerous times, but so did Dallas the week before.

I do think this will be a great game, but I think the Colts cover in the end. I see a Saints turnover to end the game.

The above is just my humble take, with a lot more thinking to do...

I'm making a small teaser play, Colts (pk) & Un 62.5 today. I like the numbers and hope to see some movement on both lines to set up a nice parlay to end the season. As it sits now... I'd only make a sizeable play on the Colts @ -6. But, there is too much time to pull the trigger, so I'll sit back and watch for now. Good luck to everyone that plays. 

Thanks for the answer. Good luck!

GUYS & GIRLS:

NOBODY cares who you are picking unless you can give us a reason!

That said, Irisheyez, Charlievegas, Breakabookie, Vue21849 have nailed it: The Colts are the better team and New Orleans is not that good on the road or in Florida. They were hosed by TB and won a miracle in Miami against a very average Dolphins team led by Chad Henne. Peyton and the Colts are the play.

GLA

PS: Aside from the 99 rams has a Dome team ever won the Super Bowl?

Give me the Saints, they are the stronger team this year. NFC dominated this season and reality... Saints are meant to win the Super Bowl.

Enjoy this song while your in here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LA4KyS9V9gc

808pickyboy.... I know your reading even though you lost the no-post bet last week...

I think that no-post-bet thing is really stupid, and I could use some information from a knowledgable Saints caper prior to making my decision on what to play this week.... so I would like you to post your thoughts, despite the terms of the bet, (which I broke last week, but I did stay out of the WHODAT forum)....