Oakland at San Francisco (10/17/2010)

 The  Line (SF -6.5)

                It has been 8 years since the Bay Area has had one of its football teams have a winning record. It appears as if we are staring at 9 years directly in the face.

 Oh yes, the game that has everybody asking themselves “What the hell is up with this line?” Before we start behaving like the general public, let’s take a closer look at the situation at hand. Before I even look at NFL lines, I like to guess what I personally think they should be. I had this game at 3 with the hook coming into play in either direction. The 49ers opened up as an eye popping 7 point fav and the line has not seen much movement. Vegas appears to be looking for us to pounce on Oak like a panther. But “Pauley” the Public Player, is still confused about this one, as he should be. How do we tackle uncertainty? While most people walk away and go look for a Patriots game to burn their money on, I like to stay right here and figure out what is up with this line.

I know I am not the only one stunned with San Francisco’s 0-5 start. The truth of the matter is that their defense is still legit, and recent performances against the Saints, Falcons and Eagles suggest that the Niners can play with the best. Unfortunately, they have not ONCE had a chance to feed off of the 49ers offense this season. They are morally down, and not even a great coach like Mike Singletary can keep them focused when Alex Smith turns the ball over 5 times. What’s more disturbing is the 49ers rushing game (ranked 30). Speaking of disturbing, lets break down Oakland’s “wool over the eyes” victory over San Diego last week. The Raiders blocked two punts and returned an interception for a TD against the Chargers. It took a barrage of special team blunder by S.D for Oak to finally break a 13 game losing streak against Norv Turners team.. 

I want to say that this is a battle between two bad teams, but San Francisco simply has too good of a defense to call them bad. They have had a brutal schedule so far that has included games against New Orleans ( L 25-22) Atlanta (L 16-14) and Philly last week (27-24) In these three close games against quality opponents the Niners combined for 13 turnovers!! That is absolutely NUTS.  Coach Mike Singletary is hoping a confrontation with quarterback Alex Smith will help. Smith’s fumble last week led to an Eagles touchdown early in the fourth quarter, and Singletary considered replacing him with backup David Carr. But Smith spoke up for himself in a heated exchange with his coach, then led two late touchdown drives as the 49ers’ comeback attempt fell just short. Mike Singletary’s “confrontation” with Vernon Davis a few years ago literally changed the makeup of the entire organization,  If this scuffle between coach and QB has HALF of the effect it did with V.Davis, then 49ers fans will finally have something to cheer about. I think Alex Smith knows that he is playing for his career in this game. Schematically the biggest mismatch I see is the Raiders offense against the 49ers defense.

I usually provide much more data when I break down games, but this is one of those games where I throw everything out the window and observe and revert to talent and scenario at hand. One thing nobody is talking about is the fact that Jason Campbell might be worse than Alex Smith. (Completing just 51% of his passes this year!) I can’t figure out where Oakland is going to get its points from in this game?   

THE LINE (-6.5)  IS LIKE AN ONION, THE MORE YOU PEEL IT, THE MORE IT STINKS. I LOVE THE 49ERS TO GET OFF TO A QUICK START AND WATCH THE DEFENSE FLY AROUND FREELEY AGAINST A RAIDER OFFENSE THAT IS SEVERELY OVERMATCHED IN THIS GAME.

The Niners have Car, Den and Stl coming up on their sched. Do you think they are not fully aware of the fact that they can’t be 4-5 soon? It starts this week with a 10-13 point victory over Oakland.

S.O.B Pregame speech to Alex Smith:

“ look dickhead, your career is on the line,  you’re at home, and the game plan is designed to help you succeed. Don’t cough the ball up 5 times, the Raiders are coming off of a shady win and they have no clue on how to react to such a circumstance.”

THE PLAY: SF -6.5 (up yours Vegas. I will lay the points if that’s how it has to be)

Mathematics for the Addicts.. (interesting trends below) *49ers are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

*49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

*49ers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

*49ers are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a S.U. loss

***Other Notable Plays:

                                       San Diego -9 over St. Louis (Big Juevos)

                                       Jets -3.5 over Broncos

                                       Colts -3 over Redskins

*49ers are 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.

I am a St.Marys College student, I love sports and I am doing this FOR FUN. I don't sell anything. Please visit my blog at www.thesonofabarber.com