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San Francisco at Atlanta (01/20/2013)

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Posted: #126
Atl and OV for the large. Siterbun, i find you sister and she pray this olrdd man on my bone all way home!!! Peace and friedlice berrtchess
 
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Posted: #127
does anyone know who adam meyer picked for both games?
 
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Posted: #128
I wonder how the line or the self proposed final would of been if Kaep didn't have such a dominant performance VS Green Bay.  A lot of the hype and leans towards SF is all because of ONE game.  A game VS a defense that runs man coverage and is not in any top 10 ranking on defense.  ATL can be put in that same category.  The difference here is, HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE, balanced offense, and zone coverage defense.  If ATL wins, its going to be a blow out.  IF SF wins it going to be close.
 
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Posted: #129
Most of what is discussed here is mute. Sheridan has already done the work.The trends, homefield, running, passing, defense...It's all in the point spread already. What we need to figure as betters are the intangibles.The things that weigh against the lines.Although everyone's opinions are appreciated, an "ATLANTA LARGE".. post doesn't help us try to find those intangibles.The "You're an fool cause San Fran lost to...." don't deserve responses.
 I posted that I went 1-3 in last weekends playoff round. we all lose. Thats the way it is. those who say they win at 80% are.....I'm here to post my opinion on which way I think a game will go and why.Many times by the time that I'm done reading you're opinions I'm swayed. That's why I like to interact here.
 Anyway, I'm not sold on Atlanta as superbowl winner. But to give them 4 points at home to a "rookie" QB is a tempting taker. I think that the further into the playoffs that you go, the QB play (and experience) comes into play.I think that the new "prototype" QB's are going to be CK and RGlll. Too hard to defend but high risk.You're gonna see more of these types and more highly paid back-ups in case they go down.But for this week, Atlanta is the play.
 
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Posted: #130
Quote Originally Posted by mak104:

... I'm not sold on Atlanta as superbowl winner. But to give them 4 points at home to a "rookie" QB is a tempting taker. I think that the further into the playoffs that you go, the QB play (and experience) comes into play.I think that the new "prototype" QB's are going to be CK and RGlll. Too hard to defend but high risk.You're gonna see more of these types and more highly paid back-ups in case they go down.But for this week, Atlanta is the play.


While he IS a 2nd year "rookie", he did just beat New England on the road a few weeks. Some say the market overreacted to the Atlanta 2nd half melt-down because a projected SF/Atlanta line was showing the niners @-1.5.  That can be seen going both ways. Most were saying that the collapse confirmed their skepticism of Atlanta because of their soft schedule.  I believe the market logically reacted (as opposed to over-reacting) confirming that the Birds are overmatched.

The Falcons can surely win, but then you'd be investing good money on a team with a lesser defense, lesser offense, poor rush defense and hoping that the inexperienced QB will be turning it over in a loud stadium (thinking of his Seattle debacle)...but for me, i think you'd be taking a team that's been exposed as a pretender in the playoffs.   IMHO.   GL
 
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Posted: #131
Speaking of intangibles, how will Crabtree's sexual assault charge effect the betting market...damn... We shall see.
 
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Posted: #132

San Francisco - 4 over Atlanta Falcons!

San Francisco now 6-2 "straight up" last 8 games!

Atlanta Falcons  0-5 in their last 5 playoff games!

San Francisco defeated Super Power New England Patriots!

Atlanta Falcons now 1-5 in their last 6 playoff home games!

Fan Francisco - 4 over Atlanta Falcons!    Medium Play!       

Baltimore + 10 vs. New England Patriots!    Large Play!          

                                            GLTA               

 
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Posted: #133
Dirty birds fold like a lawn chair...
9ers easy
 
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Posted: #134

Quote Originally Posted by UHQB:

You have to be a UNR alumnut. All Nevada-Reno people are ranting & raving about their boy. Personally, except for the NE game, I think SF BLOWS on the road ! And Kaep thinks run first then throw. That's a 2nd year rookie thinking who's prone to throw INT's.Media is pumping him up to be like Cam Newton. Atlanta knows what their in for and will be prepared. Home field advantage Baby! Wins!

Finally, you posted something worthwhile! I just knew you had it in you!!!

For everyone lauding this Kapernick kid as the "second coming" - and basically for everyone who thinks this "read - option" offense is here to stay, (Wilson, Cam, RG3, etc.) do you remember a few years ago when something called the Wildcat was the hot, new, unstoppable offense? Just ask the Jets who hired "Tony Soprano" to build it, and Jesus Tebow to run it how that worked out. Defenses adjust, and take that one dimension out of the game.

Nothing, and I mean NOTHING is ever going to replace the pure pocket passer - just look at even the last 10 Superbowl winners:

Brady, both Mannings, Roethlisberger, A-Rod, Drew Brees, should I keep going?

That's why, if history serves us correctly, there will be a Falcons / Pats Superbowl this year. Now, sure, things happen in the No Figure League - but I'd rather bet my money on tradition, not a passing fad. If we were talking musically, Brady and Ryan are like Jimi Hendrix or the Beatles, while Kapernick is that "Gangnam Style" dude, or The Macarena guys - see, I don't even know either of their names!!!!!!!!!!

Don't go chasin' waterfalls......

 

 
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Posted: #135
Look like Belicheck sent Crabtree the woman who sexually assault. Lawrence Tayror use do that to opposing QB back in day.
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by UHQB:

You have to be a UNR alumnut. All Nevada-Reno people are ranting & raving about their boy. Personally, except for the NE game, I think SF BLOWS on the road ! And Kaep thinks run first then throw. That's a 2nd year rookie thinking who's prone to throw INT's.Media is pumping him up to be like Cam Newton. Atlanta knows what their in for and will be prepared. Home field advantage Baby! Wins!

hahhhhahha new orleans?  have fun backing atlanta with that defense. They have no pass rush and even if they are able to limit kaepernicks rushing yards (which i expect they will because they will drop back and spy him) still have to stop the downfield passing game and also frank gore.
 
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Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by DrDogs:

Atl and OV for the large. Siterbun, i find you sister and she pray this olrdd man on my bone all way home!!! Peace and friedlice berrtchess

thats because your scared to face sf in the super bowl arent you?
 
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Posted: #138
where will this line settle right before kick, closer to 5, 4, or 3?
 
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Posted: #139
49ers & Over
Ravens & Under

Yes ATL has experiencing dealing with options like Panthers/Seahawks however they will not be able to contain the 49ers offense the way they would like. The 49ers will find gaps and score.

Atlanta will pass a lot to keep up with the 49ers, however they wont be able to keep it as close as usual so that they can come back and win by a fieldgoal like they have several times this season. ATL lucked into this position to begin with.

The Ravens will manage to squeeze by the Patriots, they have momentum and motivation. They are healthy, Flacco is going to be looking for a high dollar contract and Ray is heading out the door.

The Harbaugh bowl will happen.
 
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Posted: #140
Quote Originally Posted by Turbovtk:


I don't use espn, I don't wait for things I see in front of my face but if you think one or two games makes him a winner you are the one that should get off his jock before you get hurt. Sure you can take a gamble on him, like most people did on Eli this year including myself- even Eli is still not proven to me even with two superbowls-




take this advice:  stop gambling... you have no idea what you are doing... that is my very honest and penetrating assessment of your football knowledge-base... stop betting!
 
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Posted: #141
Quote Originally Posted by Turbovtk:



I wish nothing but the best for CK but he is not there yet- if he wins this weekend and then the superbowl it will be a very good start- but success is measured at least by me coming from the finance world not by one lucky streak but by long term repetition- duplicating results means more to me than a quick burst.



here's your problem... you are worrying yourself with nonsense that has no relevance on betting...


i do not care if CK is a winner!  i do not care if he is a future hall of famer... none of that garbage gives me an edge BETTING ON THIS GAME THIS WEEKEND!  you are obsessed with whether or not we should annoint CK...

who gives a garbage?  is he good enough to cover this spread in this game?  that is all that matters... your nonsense gets you nowhere in a hurry!
 
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Posted: #142
Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:




here's your problem... you are worrying yourself with nonsense that has no relevance on betting...


i do not care if CK is a winner!  i do not care if he is a future hall of famer... none of that garbage gives me an edge BETTING ON THIS GAME THIS WEEKEND!  you are obsessed with whether or not we should annoint CK...

who gives a garbage?  is he good enough to cover this spread in this game?  that is all that matters... your nonsense gets you nowhere in a hurry!
Who are you to say garbage like that? Are you like the nfl guru who knows everyones betting problems? Who are you to say stop gambling?

If your looking at it practically your taking a rookie qb on the road in a championship game in a dome backing a team that plays on grass vs a team that went undefeated outside the nfc south with a first pick franchise qb with the most talented wide receiving core plus best TE in nfl history.... Oh and atl is the 1 seed.

Now, SF may blow them out, but logically your pick is not based on statistics.....

And you need to cover more than a fg....

Just saying, CK is a rookie!!!!


 
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Posted: #143

Quote Originally Posted by dolphinsau:

does anyone know who adam meyer picked for both games?

Patriots vs. 49ers.  Reportedly, if the Pats win, he bags 2.5 million.  Made good points about Ryan being better on the road this year than at home statistically. 

He's taking the over in the Pats game as well. . .GL

 
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Posted: #144

Quote Originally Posted by DrDogs:

Atl and OV for the large. Siterbun, i find you sister and she pray this olrdd man on my bone all way home!!! Peace and friedlice berrtchess

 
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Posted: #145
Quote Originally Posted by forkball:

Patriots vs. 49ers.  Reportedly, if the Pats win, he bags 2.5 million.  Made good points about Ryan being better on the road this year than at home statistically. 

He's taking the over in the Pats game as well. . .GL




He was on at a local radio station here and he picked Atlanta with the cover, and possibly the win, unless Kaepernick can pull it our in the 4th.
 
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Posted: #146

Quote Originally Posted by lsharks:




He was on at a local radio station here and he picked Atlanta with the cover, and possibly the win, unless Kaepernick can pull it our in the 4th.

I caught the tail end of it.  He was negative on Atlanta from what I was hearing so assumed he was on San Fran. . .

 
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Posted: #147
@4 REALLY NICE SPOT FOR ATL. Something needs to be said for homefield...crowd noise. DOME WILL BE NUTS. LAST TIME SF WAS IN HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WE KOW WHAT HAPPENED
 
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Posted: #148
49ers and AFC winner superbowl. Falcons will blow it again until next year. Matt Ryan might get there next year
 
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Posted: #149
Everyone knows that the Falcons are the biggest home underdog in Conference Championship history because of how great the Niners looked last week & the fact that Falcons nearly choked away the game after leading by 20 points to start the 4th quarter but how about this trend.... Teams that score over 40 points in a playoff game are 1-9 the following week ATS & 3-26 in the last 29 games overall. It's easy to jump on board with the Niners considering how good they looked at home last week but I took the dirty birds in the Georgia Dome +4 & the over 48
 
 
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Posted: #150
I like the home dog here.  ATL finally gets it together and defense.  I think they contain Kapernick and make him throw it...don't trust him yet.  Different story on the road in the playoffs.

Falcons +5

Tease 
Falcons +12
Pats -0.5

GL to all!!
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