Seattle at Atlanta (01/13/2013)

 A look at the numbers...

Atlanta shuts teams down at home- giving up an average of 17 PPG.  Home games have gone UNDER the total seven of eight times.  Teams like Denver (21), New Orleans (13), Dallas (13) and the Giants (0) were held to season lows when they travelled to Atlanta.  They have had a week of rest as well.

On the scoring side the Falcons average 24.5 PPG and they are a perfect 8-0 SU in front of the home crowd.  Some games have been maybe too close for comfort as they are 4-4 ATS...but we're dealing with a one point spread here.

No doubt the Seahawks are hot and seem to be everybody's sexy SB pick.  However let's not forget that they are also 4-5 SU on the road this year.  The three-game run where they scored 150 points against ARZ, BUF and SF is still fresh in everyone's mind and I believe this has inflated the total.  Keep in mind, two of those games were at home and one was in a dome in Canada.  Toss out the Canadian game and the Hawks average just over 36 points in their road game totals...this includes last week where they were gifted a touchdown when RG3 laid the ball on the five when his knee folded.

Bottom line- this will be a defensive battle.  Both teams have the ability to shut the each other down, and probably will.

Therefore...gimme the UNDER LARGE and a small play on ATL.

GL to all    

I'm on ATL

Dome game plays to the Falcons strength.... they offense is fast paced while Seattle is more of a grind it out team.

ATL's D-block gets no love.  Their defense is great even with Samuel banged up.  Their linebackers are tops in the league and they are stingy against the run.

If ATL gets up early it will be ugly.

I have superbowl futures on Seattle, but I can't see them getting passed a rested ATL on the road, 2nd cross country travel, vs. a 2nd tier qb when he doesn't lose at home, with 2 ridiculous wideouts, and 1 of the best TE's of all time in his last stand.

I may be nieve but I think they can contain Lynch.

ATL -1

I'm also looking into an alt line for ATL.... no reason why they can't put up 30+ at home.  Seattle better come out firing on all cylinders, if they start flat like last week they will never catch-up.

GL TO ALL!

I agree that it will be tough on Seattle playing back to back games across the country but as for everything else you said... I'm not sure I follow your logic...

In what world are the Falcons stingy against the run??? 4.8 yards a carry is not stingy against the run, and I think they are ranked about 24th in the league on run D.

I also agree that Atlanta has some really good LB's but tops in the league? There are plenty good LB corps in the league that compare to the Falcons...

And what are you saying that if Atlanta gets up early it will get ugly...? It didn't get ugly after Washington took a 14-0 lead last week... Why would it be different with a team (Atlanta) that can't sit on the ball with their running game?

As for the Falcons putting up 30+ at home... Seattle has given up more than 20 points only 3 times this season (Detroit 28, Miami 24, New England 23) Miami needed 17 in the 4th Q and Detroit needed 14 in the 4th Q, as well as a TD with no time....

I'm not positive who I'm going to take Sunday but I'm leaning Seattle... I mean no disrespect by saying this, but your analysis seems like guy jack wisdom to me... Just curious, but are you a Falcons fan?

1. Rushing offense  (BIG edge: Seattle)
   
2. Total defense  (BIG edge:  Seattle)
   
3. Defense pts allowed  (edge:  Seattle)
   
4. SU / ATS record last 7 games  (edge:  Seattle)
   
5. SU / ATS record last 4 games  (BIG edge:  Seattle)
   
6. S.O.S.  (edge:  Seattle)
   
7. QB / Coach  (edge:  Atlanta?)

personally, think the QB/Coach matchup is pretty even... Carroll is a very underrated NFL coach... probably the most underrated coach in the NFL... and Wilson was an underrated CFB QB, and has already been underrated his entire (brief) carreer as a QB (starting from the day he was drafted, all the way up to his first playoff game)...

regardless, those 7 factors do not bode well for the Falcons... and more importantly, it is rare that you will have a team getting points while being significantly better in those 7 areas...

       The  DIrty Birds only wish they were as good as the Seahawks!  Then again, there's always next season.  Watch and learn my friends- the Vueman would not steer you wrong. Seattle by 1-3 points.

SEATTLE   +  1 (Prime Play!)

Quote Originally Posted by Raines:

The OVER is probably the best play. 58 and 52 total combined in the last two against. Probably will tease the HAWKS up.

That's faulty reasoning at best- both games were in Seattle in the regular season...three different QB's for Seattle in those two games...both defenses are vastly improved...do the math on both teams' PF and PA and you come up with a predicted average total of just over 40 points.  Just sayin'...but good luck regardless.

Math play based on both teams' home and away scoring records (PF and PA) this season:

Falcons 23 Seahawks 17 

Jets fan.... no disrespect taken at all.... the point is to argue and hopefully help eachother...

My analysis on their run D is based soley on the games I've watched and not the collective stats that are always skewed.... skewed how? Cam Newton and their qb running game skewed the rushing stats against... as just one example....

I was impressed how during a big game to lock-up homefield advantage they absolutely destroyed the Giants offense.... from the game I have seen of them at home their defense really steps up.... see the New Orleans game when Brees threw 5 picks.... most teams have been unsuccessful over the last few years scoring with Atlanta at home.... Matty Ice's home record is ridiculous....

Now, look at Seattle's record in a dome....

All 3 of the games they played ina dome they lost

Arizona, STL, Det

This offense is the fastest the Seahawks have seen except for the Pats and Packers, except they were played outside in their INSANE homefield advantage...

I think ATL handles Seattle by outscoring them and their defense will do just enough to keep them ahead....

GL TO YOU!

Not happening...to predictable. One of the two will go down this weekend. NFL will not set up a game that they will be forced to call unfair. I believe that would be the case, if the rematch occured.

This is like the millionith time I've hear SEA vs GB rematch? My idea is to fade the public and go with both of them loosing.

Changing from a PASS to small lean on ATL, solely on the notion that the public is disrespecting the better team, at home, with rest.

One more thing.... I bet Seattle last week and I am very very very lucky, as most of us, that RG3 got hurt.... otherwise there is no chance they would've covered.... he was a shell of himself during the game.... if he was healthy, the first 2 drives of the game would've been indicative of the rest of the game....

So, unless Matt Ryan gets hurt, if Seattle goes down 14-0 in the first quarter this one my friend is a wrap!