Accventures Cognizant Classic pick thread

Lowry 3rd round leader (1.75-1 for $75)

2-3-1 on matchups......damn.

27-16-6 YTD

Nice Skinns!

Boom Skinns!

Nice so if Eckroat makes this, have all three guys and then just have to do a bunch of math later.

Neither book has paid yet but just trying to ballpark the math here.  1/3 everything at weird assed odds.  Skinn is the biggest but don't really lose on the other two.

Like where my picks are going in the final round too.  Got some real long shots in play.

Great picks, fun tournament to watch! 

Well done on the round 3 leaders!

Ok, so before picks for this final round, I need to get some sort of accounting of the wins yesterday.  Good news is there were wins and a good day.  Bad news is that I placed wagers in two accounts, odds were quirky (2.6-1 type stuff) and so saying how much isn't as easy.  I'll try......

Skinns 3rd round leader ticket was $50-1 for $20+. $1,000/3 winners = $353 adding in my wagered amount

Lowry 3rd round leader ticket was $150 at 1.65-1 = $247.5 /3 winners = $232.50 adding in my wager amount back

Eckroat 3rd round leader ticket $100 at 2.24-1 = $224/3 winners = $174.66 adding back in my $100 wagered

Eckroat 3rd round winner ticket $50 for $2.72-1 = $136/3 winners = $95.43 adding back in my $50 wagered

Lowry 3rd round leader ticket $75 at 1.75-1 = $131.25/3 winners = $118.75 adding back in the $75 wagered

So I think I won about $550 on the 3rd round winner plays.......or at least that's close enough for me. 

That would put me ballpark around even for the weekend IF EVERY "to win" play is a loser.  I hope and don't think every "to win" play will be a loser when today is over but for money management's sake, it's easier to zero them ALL out right now for the math part of it.  Might be up a ew bucks if they are all zero but for arguments sake, I'll just say it's an even weekend as things stand right now.

Will do an inventory of what I have in play "to win" and post that here in a second.

So still in play "to win" would be the following:

CT Pan (from before the event started). 100-1 for $30

Lipsky to win (from before event started)  500-1 for $9

Malnati (from before event started).  500-1 for $9

Higgo to win (from before event started). 400-1 for $10

Skinns to win (end 1st round pick) 100-1 for $20

Lipsky to win (Saturday pick) 150-1 for $10

Bridgeman to win (Saturday pick) $150-1 for $20 and $250-1 for $5

KH Lee to win (Saturday pick) 85-1 for $20

Higgo to win (Saturday pick) 60-1 for $8

So a Higgo win would be roughly $4,480

Skinns would be $2,000

Bridgeman would be $4,250

Lipsky would be $6,000

Malnati would be $4,500

CT Pan would be $3,000

KH Lee would be $1,700

4th round match-ups:

Van Rooyen (even) over Fitz.  $150

Pavon (-120) over Knapp. $160

Perez (even) over Eckroat $150

An (even) over Poston  $150

Norrman (+115) over Maverick McNealy $140

30 players within six strokes of the lead.  I think 16 under will win it, maybe even a little less unless one o the top 3 goes off which I don't see them doing.  Just need to pick which of these in that chase pack I should add.  

Adding:

Few long shots just to start filling in the highlights in the chase pack that we can pick up for cheap right now.

Greyserman to win (175-1 for $15)...........only 125-1 at Bovada.

Pavon to win (80-1 for $30)

Silverman to win (125-1 for $23)

Rory to win (45-1 for $35)

Adding: 

Chad Ramey to win (750-1 for $6) 

Adding:

Perez to win (25-1 for $70)  I don't typically play skinny odds like this until the end but if he starts hot, this will be a bargain and I can add a little more later.

Love the Rory play. Jumped on at +5000 Great value!

25 players at -8 or better.  I have 11 of the 25 right now.  I like where I sit but obviously Lowry is an issue to be dealt with as the day unfolds.  A shitty start by the giant leprechaun, where his odds get more attractive AND my long shots get a little help, would be the optimal start to the round.

Just not too sure that the winner can come from any further back than the -8 number.  Maybe but to get to -15 or -16, even the -8 guys will have to shoot the round of their life on a very tough course.

Adding a little more on Skinns as he'd be a nice win right now but never hurts to get a little more.

Skinns to win (8-1 for $35)

Adding to win for cheap:

Nico Echavarria (150-1 for $16)

Cauley to win (150-1 for $17)

Coody to win (150-1 for $17)

$50 risk to take out three more guys in the chase group seems intelligent.

Adding:

KH Lee to win (125-1 for $9)....makes him about $3k for the win with what I already had on him.

Couple of the match-ups are big time blowouts right now....in a big way!

Couple of white hot rounds going right now, Van Rooyen being one o them.  Have him in the match-up but nothing yet to win.  Shows that maybe the course is set up for a couple of really low rounds out of the contenders........but who?

Hot start for Higgo......he'd be a nice hit.

An beating Position by TEN shots....lmao.

Van Rooyen comfortably ahead too.