British Open picks

Francesco Molinari ov Chris Wood

Interesting matchups here, and even though we have to lay some juice with Molinari here, I’m happy to do it.  Chris Wood just has not been very good recently.  Missed cut at the Masters, missed cut at the US Open,  and then he had a WD at the Open de France, and a bad missed cut at the Scottish Open last week…I don’t like how he’s playing right now, and guess what KJ…he’s got one of the two injuries we really focus on…which is it KJ?  Bad wrist.  Molinari missed the cut at the US Open, but he’s been fine other than that this year.  38th at the Open de France, and before the US Open, only 1 missed cut all year, and 9 top 25 finishes.  Molinari 5 straight made cuts at the British Open, all top 40 finishes including a 9th and a 15th so he’s ok a this tournament.  

Russell Henley ov Bubba Watson

Every week we bet against Bubba Watson…every week he doesn’t let us down.  Shot -9 last week…still finished 44th, and lost his head to head matchup against Ben Martin.  This week?  matched up against Russell Henley who was really good earlier in the year, started to fade a couple months ago, but looks like he may have his mojo back.  Three straight made cuts, 5th last week at the greenbrier.  Henley is 6-1 against Bubba this year in tournaments they’ve played together in.  Bubba only makes the cut 50% of the time at the British Open…never finished inside the top 22 here.  Henley pretty similar history at the British Open, so I’ll happily take 2017 Henley ov 2017 Bubba.

Paul Casey ov Brooks Koepka

Koepka won the US Open and hit an insane 91% of Greens in Regulation.  Guess what he’s not going to do at the British Open KJ?  Here’s the big thing I see, and there aren’t any stats…and that’s the point.  He hasn’t played since then.  The three tournaments before that he didn’t have one finish inside the top 30.  I see a big let down after a major win from a guy who caught lightning in a bottle for the US Open.  He didn’t play the British Open last year…I just don’t see how he comes out and plays winning golf, and Paul Casey has been playing solid, consistent golf recently. Since February only one finish outside the top 26, no missed cuts, 6th at the Masters, and 26th at the US Open so he’s been good at majors…I like Paul Casey to play really good golf…I see Koepka struggling.

Bryson DeChambeau ov Emiliano Grillo

I didn’t think I’d be betting on DeChambeau this year, especially since he missed 9 cuts in a row at one point this year, but I can’t ignore what he’s done the last 4 weeks.  4 straight made cuts, 26th, 17th, 14th, and a win at the John Deere.  I know they’ve been watered down fields, but in his 7 missed cuts, he was a combined +30, and in the last 4 tournaments he’s been a combined -33.  KJ he’s done something with his swing, or his putting, and I’m going to back him this week against Grillo who’s been a disappointment this year.  Missed the cut at the US Open, +12 at the Masters, 43rd at the Travelers, and last week at the Scottish Open he missed the cut!!!  Last year Grillo finished 12th here, but that was last year when he was playing really good…I love the momentum from DeChambeau and he’s +120 in this matchup!!!

Finishing score 275.5.  Par is 70.  That’s 280 to finish par.

Over -140, under is +110

The winner only needs to be -5 to win this bet?

I LOVE the under.  This entire year, the books have underestimated how good these golfers are.  I know the fairways are tight, I know the wind will be breezy…I don’t care.  These guys are good.  Someone is going to go low on the first day, and guys will catch up.  One of my favorite bets of the week.