*I made these bets yesterday along with the write-ups. The lines have changed, so don't be surprised if they don't matchup.
Matt Kuchar ov Dustin Johnson
Dustin in the last 3 tournaments, 54th, MC, MC. Kuchar in the last 5 tournaments, 2nd at the British Open, 16th US Open, 4th the Memorial, 12th Dean & Deluca, 9th Byron Nelson. Kuchar also the last 4 Canadian Opens, 9th, 6th, 4th, 2nd, so he’s really good at this tournament, he’s been fantastic recently, and something is up with DJ. HE shot +7 in the final round last week, I don’t think this a tournament that Dustin cares about at all…and Kuchar is a MASSIVE underdog. +150
Just for pure value I’m going to sprinkle a little bit on Hoffman ov DJ. Hoffman is +350 against DJ. The last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, Hoffman has finished ahead of DJ.
Tony Finau ov Bubba Watson
Last week Bubba finished ahead of Henley in his head to head matchup by one shot, and that was because Henley had a bizarre +5 on Saturday. I’ll keep fading Bubba this week though with Tony Finau who finished tied with Bubba last week, but has finished ahead of him in the previous few tournaments, and has been better than Bubba for most of the year. Nothing really stands out as far as tournament history in this matchup so I’m sticking with Finau who has been really underrated this year.
Danny Lee ov Kevin Chappell
The last time we saw Danny Lee he withdrew from the John Deere for “undisclosed reasons”. Those reasons were that he had a sh*tty first round 74 and didn’t want to stay around and miss the cut. People are going to focus on that and not focus on how good he was before that. In the 7 tourneys before that 4 top 10s, and a 22nd, no missed cuts. He finished 32nd here last year, 34th in 2014. Kevin Chappell meanwhile is in the middle of the down side of his roller coaster season and career…he was good at the US Open and the Fed Ex St Jude, but his last two tournaments he’s missed the cut horrifically at the Quicken Loans, and the British, he didn’t play here last year, in 2015 he missed the cut, hasn’t been good here…I love the upside of Danny Lee here.
Keegan Bradley ov Patrick Rogers (small bet)
Patrick Rogers has been improving, and really good recently, but here’s a stat that will surprise you. Since June Keegan and Rogers have played in 4 tournaments together. Keegan has finished ahead of Rogers in all of them. So as good as Rogers has been, he hasn’t been better than Keegan. Rogers made the cut here last year, Keegan hasn’t played this tournament in a few years…so just a little play on the guy who’s won the most recent head to head matchups. Keegan the underdog here +120
Ricky Barnes ov Will McGirt (small bet)
Why is Ricky Barnes +145 in this matchup? Let’s start with the last 2 years at the Canadian Open. Barnes 5th and 11th…McGirt 59th, and 34th. And let’s look at recent history…Barnes is 4-1 against McGirt in the previous 5 tourneys they’ve played in together. Barnes coming off a good performance at the Barbasol, McGirt a +9 missed cut at the British so Barnes might have a little bit more confidence. I think it’s worth a small play.
Ryan Palmer ov Johnny Vegas (small bet)
Why is Johnny Vegas favored over anyone right now? Palmer is +145 in this matchup, and it’s all because Vegas won this tourney last year, but this year is different. Palmer hasn’t been great, but he’s been better than Vegas and that isn’t saying much. 8 missed cuts in his last 10 tournaments. Here are his scores in his last 5 tourneys. +11, +8, +4, +8, +11. Palmer 4-1 against Vegas head to head the last 5 tournaments they’ve played in together. Palmer not fantastic history in the Canadian Open, but he always makes the cut
A lot of underdogs in my picks this week, so I did some mathematics.
A parlay of Kuchar ov Dustin, Finau ov Watson, Lee ov Chappell, Keegan ov Rogers, Barnes of McGirt, Palmer ov Vegas. $10 pays $771.
A parlay of Hoffma ov Dustin, Finau ov Watson, Lee ov Chappell, Keegan ov Rogers, Barnes of McGirt, Palmer ov Vegas. $10 pays $1,319.87
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