Career Builder & Abu Dhabi picks

Jason Dufner or Brendan Steele ov Zach Johnson

I don’t know what it is, but like clockwork every year Zach Johnson plays good in the wrap around, and in Hawaii, plays great at the Sony Open…then misses the cut at the Career Builder, and plays good after the tournament.  It’s a weird format with different courses, and the pro am adds a lot of extra time to the rounds…apparently Zach doesn’t like it.  Three straight missed cuts at the Career Builder.  And if you look at last week, Zach only had one great round, that was the first round.  The next three he was mediocre to bad.  Both Steele and Dufner have better track records here, Dufner won it two year ago, and finished 25th last year…Steele’s last three finishes here are 6th, 34th, and 2nd.  Dufner coming off 18th and 11th place finishes in his last 2 tournaments, Steele 29th his last tourney so both have decent recent form.  I like both of them over Zach.  I think I’ll do something I don’t normally do, and play both matchups, taking a chance to cash big on fading Zach.

Hudson Swafford ov Bubba Watson

Going to be fading Bubba Watson a lot this year, and I’ll start this week by picking Hudson Swafford who was last years winner.  Bubba really started to fall off last year, and I haven’t seen anything to convince me he’s turning it around.  He played a couple of tournaments in the wrap around…finished 7th at the QBE (whatever that tournament is), and he couldn’t break into the top 50 in the Shriners and the RSM Classic.  Bubba also hasn’t played this tournament since 2011, and with the slow play and different courses Bubba’s temper could rear is ugly head.  Swafford isn’t an elite talent, but he knows this format well, made the cut 3 out of the 4 times he’s played here, and won his head to head matchup last week.  I’ll take him again this week.

Jason Kokrak ov Jimmy Walker

Just betting against Jimmy Walker, who as you all know still has Lyme disease.  He shot +4 in the first round, played better the second round, but still missed the cut.  Going back to the wrap around and the 2017 season, he’s missed the cut in 4 straight tournaments, yada yada yada…you know the drill on Jimmy Walker.  Kokrak made the cut last week, and was 7 shots better than Walker, Kokrak not great tournament history…3 missed cuts, an 8th and 48th…but Walker hasn’t played this tournament in 5 years.  Just going to keep fading Jimmy Walker.

Small Play

Alex Cejka ov Blayne Barber

I know, I know, I know.  I bet against Blayne Barber after his caddies accident and lost.  But Barber wasn’t good last week, it’s the just the other guy happened to be one of the worst.  I don’t know how focused Barber is going to be this week, and Cejka has finished ahead of Barber in 2 out of the last 3 years.  Cejka was playing good in the wrap around, he finished with 2nd and 9th place finishes…Barbers last 4 finishes were 67th, 25th, 45th and MC.

Small Play

Grayson Murray ov Luke List

No sure why List is the favorite here.  Last year he played great in the wrap around, and in Hawaii, and then when they got back to the main land, List was terrible.  The year before he was bad in the wrap around, randomly finished 6th at this tournament, and was bad after that.  It looks like the 6th place finish is the outlier.  Murray finished 12th here last year in his only time playing here…I’ll make a small play he can duplicate again.

Andy Sullivan ov Danny Willet

Anytime you can bet against Danny Willett…you’re in a good spot.  He’s going down as one of the strangest major and Masters winners ever.  Since that win he’s been awful.  In 2017 on the European Tour he played in 9 tournaments, and finished outside the top 50 in 8 of them.  On the PGA tour he didn’t finish better than 69th in 10 tournaments.  Andy Sullivan has finished tied or ahead of Danny Willet in the last 4 tournaments here…Sullivan played last week and had a decent showing finishing 34th at the BMW SA.

Small Play

Justin Rose ov Rory McIlroy

Look, I know McIlroy’s history here, but this year is different.  He hasn’t played in a tournament in a long time, he’s had an injury and a heart issue to deal with, and Justin Rose has won 3 out of the last 6 tournaments he’s played in.  Rory is going to probably play well, but he’s also going to knocking some rust off where as Rose is in the groove right now.