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Posted: #1
early bets from most to least wagered 

Day -120 v Thomas
Fowler +140 v Spieth
Rose -105 v Leishman
Koepka +110 v Matsuyama
Thomas +130 v Rahm. 

 
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Posted: #2
Wow!
Lines moved big on some
Spieth now -115 v Fowler. Was -160. 
Nice middle if I choose to hedge off Fowler +140. Not that I love betting Fowler against Spieth. Seemed very high so I took the plus odds. 

Casey v Leishman also moved big!  From -130 to -155

Gonna add another plus odds play
Cantlay +105 v Chappell. 
The way Cantlay has been playing he shouldn't be plus odds. 
 
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Posted: #3
here is what I chanced for tourney match plays, sacker17

Patrick Cantlay +115 over Kevin Chappell
Xander Schauffele +120 over Russell Henley
Marc Leishman +140 over Paul Casey ("LMM" ???)
Justin Thomas +125 over Jon Rahm 
Justin Thomas +115 over Rickie Fowler -135
Pat Perez even over Gary Woodland
Tony Finau even over Daniel Berger
Jhonathan Vegas even over Kyle Stanley

also 1st round Marc Leishman +125 over Dustin Johnson. Marc's 1st rounds 62 & 67 his last two while DJ 71 & 66




 
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Posted: #4
I swear I didn't move the lines...
 
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Posted: #5
Rat
Like most of your plays and I'm on a bunch of them.
I wouldn't go Thomas against Fowler because Fowler has been very consistently good. I also took the plus money Thomas v Rahm.  Seems pretty even. 
No plays for me but I would lean Berger v Finau and Stanley v Vegas.
Don't think I'd play Leishman v DJ RD1.  I'd lean DJ but wouldn't lay -145.  Just don't think +125 Leishman is a good play.
DJ usually very good history RD1 and he is just a beast in general!
I'm thinking he was robbed last year here when Rory stole the FedEx win.  Maybe some DJ redemption this year but I didn't love the lines.  May wait and see for Rds2-4 but I think DJ has big chance to win this week.
Good luck
 
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Posted: #6
Marc Leishman +140 over Paul Casey just a tourney line I do NOT understand +140 looks "wicked high" to me almost like a "line makers mistake"

Marc Leishman WON BMW last week [-23] 5 shots up on Justin Rose and Rickei Fowler and 3rd @ Dell Tech [-13] BUT was a CUT @ Northern.

Paul Casey was T-33rd last week [-8] BUT ain't chopped liver with top 5 finishes 4 of his last 7 tourneys including T-4th @ Dell Tech [-12]  5th @ Northern [-6] and T-5th Bridgestone [-7]

Leishman is also "in range" for the FedEx IF he could pull off a WIN this weekend @ current 4th just 1337 points behind the leader Spieth. Casey also an outside chance @ 10th BUT being 3726 points behind would "need some help" from the leaders AND a WIN


 
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Posted: #7
Rat
Agree with you that Casey -160 v Leishman is way too high. 
Tempted to take Leishman +140. 
Casey did not play well last week. 
I had him in my "anti-Rory" wager and won but Casey never really got going with the big boys. Seemed stuck in neutral but still good enough to beat Rory. 

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by sacker17:

Rat
Agree with you that Casey -160 v Leishman is way too high. 
Tempted to take Leishman +140. 
Casey did not play well last week. 
I had him in my "anti-Rory" wager and won but Casey never really got going with the big boys. Seemed stuck in neutral but still good enough to beat Rory. 


Casey does have an excuse for last week, which was that his wife had a baby a few days before the tournament.  Tough to focus right after that happens.  I think he has a huge bounce back week this week.  
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

Quote Originally Posted by sacker17:

RatAgree with you that Casey -160 v Leishman is way too high. Tempted to take Leishman +140. Casey did not play well last week. I had him in my "anti-Rory" wager and won but Casey never really got going with the big boys. Seemed stuck in neutral but still good enough to beat Rory. 
Casey does have an excuse for last week, which was that his wife had a baby a few days before the tournament.  Tough to focus right after that happens.  I think he has a huge bounce back week this week.


Papa thanks for the reply. I knew that Caseys wife had baby girl but it slipped my mind. They mentioned it on broadcast last week. Maybe he does "bounce" back this week... it's possible.
I'm staying away from Casey bets for or against.
You can't lay -160 to Leishman that's for sure.

Good luck Papa
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by sacker17:

Casey does have an excuse for last week, which was that his wife had a baby a few days before the tournament.  Tough to focus right after that happens.  I think he has a huge bounce back week this week.

Papa thanks for the reply. I knew that Caseys wife had baby girl but it slipped my mind. They mentioned it on broadcast last week. Maybe he does "bounce" back this week... it's possible.
I'm staying away from Casey bets for or against.
You can't lay -160 to Leishman that's for sure.

Good luck Papa

I laid -150.  This is not a good course for Leishman, IMO.  They go back to the Bermuda greens this week, in which he is in the bottom 3rd of this tournament.  He also is in the bottom tier of Par 70 course golfers.  Leishman also has never played in this tournament before, where Casey took 4th last year and 5th in 2015.  I think Leishman regresses this week and Casey pops a top 5.  GL.  
 
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Posted: #11
Papa
Good info. 
I took rose -105 v Leishman. 
Rose playing much better last few events. 

 
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Posted: #12
Papa
One more thing is yes Casey has great history in these events. I heard last week he is #1 in GIR during Fed Ex cup last bunch of years. You may be right that Casey bounces after last week birth of 2d child but I was concerned with my Casey v Rory bet last week as Casey just never got going 
 
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Posted: #13
RD2
Fowler -135 v Cantlay
Perez +105 v Kisner
Hadwin +145 v Leishman
 
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Posted: #14
RD 2. 1-1-1. (+.1)

RD3
Berger -120 v Perez
Matsuyama -120 v Leishman
Woodland +150 v Rose (too high)
 
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Posted: #15
Woodland +150 v Rose (too high)

I jumped that too, sacker17. also chanced "X" +185 over the "Rham-a-lama Dign Dong" for same reason. "X" with a [-4] for tourney [-5] Friday puts him "in range" of the leaders IF he can shoot low again. Rahm has NOT had his traditional "blow up" round yet

also "sprinkled" on "X" to win @ 40-1 just in case he was to do something crazy
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

Woodland +150 v Rose (too high)

I jumped that too, sacker17. also chanced "X" +185 over the "Rham-a-lama Dign Dong" for same reason. "X" with a [-4] for tourney [-5] Friday puts him "in range" of the leaders IF he can shoot low again. Rahm has NOT had his traditional "blow up" round yet

also "sprinkled" on "X" to win @ 40-1 just in case he was to do something crazy


"X" [-5] for tourney [-10] (tied with Kisner two back of Casey) the "Ding Dong" [even] for the +185 WINNER. freeking Rose birdies #18 to ROB our AZZ [+1] for a TIE with Woodland
 
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Posted: #17
Rd3. 0-1-2

RD4
Love Berger -110 v Perez
Pushed this bet yesterday. Berger got off slow (+3) but steadied. The key here is Berger is actually a pretty good putter but yesterday couldn't make anything. He was -2.85 strokes gained putting rd3. Perez was +1.65
That's 4.5 strokes.
Berger today at -110 is a golf d play.

Leaning Fowler v Na sutama bc Matsuyama was awful yesterday but may just make the Berger as a large play
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by sacker17:

Rd3. 0-1-2RD4 Love Berger -110 v PerezPushed this bet yesterday. Berger got off slow (+3) but steadied. The key here is Berger is actually a pretty good putter but yesterday couldn't make anything. He was -2.85 strokes gained putting rd3. Perez was +1.65That's 4.5 strokes. Berger today at -110 is a golf d play. Leaning Fowler v Na sutama bc Matsuyama was awful yesterday but may just make the Berger as a large play


Putting stats this year Berger and Perez are almost identical. Middle of pack. No way Perez beats Berger by 4.5 strokes putting RD4.
This week Berger playing stats are better than Perez

Berger is hitting the drives 21 yards further
Driving distance 307 yards to 286
Driving accuracy 64% to 57%
GIR 61% to 56%

Gonna make large wager

Good luck
 
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Posted: #19
Berger winner RD4 v Perez despite Perez putting insanely at +3.4 strokes gained
Had it good. Needed this one
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

Woodland +150 v Rose (too high)

I jumped that too, sacker17. also chanced "X" +185 over the "Rham-a-lama Dign Dong" for same reason. "X" with a [-4] for tourney [-5] Friday puts him "in range" of the leaders IF he can shoot low again. Rahm has NOT had his traditional "blow up" round yet

also "sprinkled" on "X" to win @ 40-1 just in case he was to do something crazy


and "X" marks the SPOT!!! final round [-2] for  tourney [-12] one over Justin Thomas WINNER and also over Henley (who gave me a SCARE) match play [-5] for [-10]. to paraphrase the RPI hockey cheer, "E to the X, D-X, D-X. E to the X D-Y. cosine secant sign of phi. disintegrate them Schauffele guy!!!"

definitely my BEST PGA Tour tourney in a LONG time going 5-2 on tourney match plays AND the "to win" with Schauffele @ 40-1 bet after 2nd round. besides the "X" over Henley [-12] to [-10] get Perez over Woodland (who "blew up" [+4] final round) [-3] to [-1], Finau over Berger [-7] to [-4], Cantlay over Chappell [even] to [+9] and Thomas over Rahm [-11] to [-7]. Leishman vs Casey and Vegas vs Stanley the two losers and both were never really IN the tourney

with NO PGA events next week, gotta check out the British Masters in England, sacker17. time for some more "fade Rory" 


 
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Posted: #21
Rat
Good job with the X man.
Berger over Perez gave me a decent week.
Won some in DK too. Love the DK 50/50 plays
Definitely will fade Rory again. Why not?
 
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by sacker17:

Rat
Good job with the X man.
Berger over Perez gave me a decent week.
Won some in DK too. Love the DK 50/50 plays
Definitely will fade Rory again. Why not?


Sergio Garcia is +105 over Rory for British Masters this next weekend in England. check out my British Masters thread and see what you think

just checked "X" Masters odd for next spring. his BEST "to win" odds now 85-1 @ Cantor Gaming. was 150-1 before the TOUR win. as one of the new "20 somethings" with Thomas, Spieth and Fowler, definitely worth a "sprinkle" 
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