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Farmers Insurance Picks

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Posted: #1
I'll post more later.

I'm taking Woodland ov Tiger.  Wanted to post this play ASAP as the line is already dropping.  
 
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Posted: #2
alan and i had a great week last week.  we got a little lucky that i, and hopefully most of you, were able to figure out who "phil" was in our writeups and got those two bets in.  as we all know, golf is some fringe activity engaged in by old white people.  it's not the kind of mainstream event where you can just throw around first names and pretend like people are going to know who the f*ck you are talking about.  michael, lebron, peyton, prince, madonna, even Dr. Phil, sure we all know who those guys are. 

it's like someone saying, i hope phil has a good super bowl.  who?  of course, philip wheeler, backup linebacker for the falcons who has one tackle in the playoffs so far.


ok, on to this week.  despite our success so far, something came to my attention while checking the leaderboard of whatever that tournament was last weekend that made me question my partnership here with alan. apparently, there is an actual golfer who goes by the name Jhonattan Vegas.  i don't know what the f*ck is happening with his first name but with a last name like that, the question becomes, why aren't we betting on this guy.  this sounds like a guy who probably doesn't give a shite if he wins a tournament, but is going to go out there every week and do his best to cover whatever betting matchup vegas sets out for him.

 lt's a long golf season.  let's tighten up this ship. 
 
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Posted: #3
apparently, there is an actual golfer who goes by the name Jhonattan Vegas

and he CAN shoot low rounds when he is on his game along with Si Woo Kim. BOTH probably worth a $5 "sprinkle" @ 100-1 this week. BOTH had a tourney WIN last season
 
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Posted: #4
Lines are moving crazy on some of these picks:

Howell ov Rahm

LAird ov Berger

Molinari ov Hun An

I'll do write-ups later tonight.
 
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Posted: #5
Woodland ov Tiger

Tiger has won this event 6 times.  The last time he played here, he finished tied for 80th.  Woodland was 18th here last year, 45th, and 10th the years before that.  Last 2 PGA events Woodland has played in, he's finished top 6.  I'm just going to be betting against Tiger every chance I get.  Especially if they pair him up against someone like Woodland.

Howell ov Rahm

Howell has been on fire recently, and when you get a golfer like Howell who is in the zone like this, you ride him like a $8 hooker.  His last 5 tourneys have been top 15 finishes.  Howell likes this tourney.  He's played here 14 times, no missed cuts, 9 top 16's.  I love Rahm's talent, but he hasn't played this tourney before.  I lost betting against Rahm last week, but I love this matchup.

Laird ov Berger

Berger is inconsistent.  His last 4 tourneys he has 45th, 2nd, 51st, 14th finishes.  Laird has been consistently good recently.  9th, 13th, 26th.  Berger missed the cut here last year.  Laird loves this tourney.  7th, and 8th last two years here.

Molinari ov Byeung Hun An

I don't get this matchup.  Molinari has 4 top 12 finishes in a row on the PGA tour.  Hun An hasn't played in two months.  Molinari missed the cut at this tourney last year, but Hun An hasn't played this tourney ever.  Molinari is just in a different class than Hun An as a golfer right now.


 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

alan and i had a great week last week.  we got a little lucky that i, and hopefully most of you, were able to figure out who "phil" was in our writeups and got those two bets in.  as we all know, golf is some fringe activity engaged in by old white people.  it's not the kind of mainstream event where you can just throw around first names and pretend like people are going to know who the f*ck you are talking about.  michael, lebron, peyton, prince, madonna, even Dr. Phil, sure we all know who those guys are. 

it's like someone saying, i hope phil has a good super bowl.  who?  of course, philip wheeler, backup linebacker for the falcons who has one tackle in the playoffs so far.


ok, on to this week.  despite our success so far, something came to my attention while checking the leaderboard of whatever that tournament was last weekend that made me question my partnership here with alan. apparently, there is an actual golfer who goes by the name Jhonattan Vegas.  i don't know what the f*ck is happening with his first name but with a last name like that, the question becomes, why aren't we betting on this guy.  this sounds like a guy who probably doesn't give a shite if he wins a tournament, but is going to go out there every week and do his best to cover whatever betting matchup vegas sets out for him.

 lt's a long golf season.  let's tighten up this ship. 

Nice work last week Club.  Couldn't have done it without you.  I've took it upon myself to do a write-up on your Vegas pick.  Here we go:

Jhonattan Vegas ov Lucas Glover

The last two tournaments these two have played in together, Vegas has finished ahead of Glover.  The last two years at this tournament, Vegas has finished 18th, and 11th...Glover has 2 MC out of the last 3 tourney's here.  In fact, out of the last 6 tournaments here, Vegas has finished ahead of Glover 5 times.  There's an old gambling saying that applies to this matchup:  "In the end, Vegas always wins"

Let's get it Club.  Great work.  Teamwork makes the dreamwork.




 
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Posted: #7
Adding another play as new lines come out...

Chad Campbell ov KJ Choi

I know KJ Choi has amazing history at this course.  Finished second here last year.  But Choi is getting older, and he's missed the cut 5 out of the last 6 tourneys.  The one he made the cut, he finished 75th.  Campbell has 8 straight made cuts, and his coming off a great 6th place finish.  He's no scrub at this tourney either.  31st and 19th the last two years here.
 
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Posted: #8
Geez, I get nervous when I love this many plays, but they seem to be jumping out at me this week.  Here's another one.

Henrik Norlander (if you listen to the podcast, you know his nickname) ov Johnson Wagner

Wagner has 5 straight missed cuts.  Norlander has 13 made cuts out of the last 14 tourneys.  Wagner was in good form at points last year, but not recently.  In 3 tourneys in the 2017 season they've played in together, Norlander has finished ahead of him in all of them.  Norlander finished 41st here last year...Wagner has 2 straight missed cuts here.
 
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Posted: #9
Hun An hasn't played in two months

Byeong-Hun An been doing the Euro Tour. T-13th [-10] last week @ Abu Dhabi. T-13th [-11] @ DP World. T-10th [-10] Turkish Open both in November 
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

Hun An hasn't played in two months

Byeong-Hun An been doing the Euro Tour. T-13th [-10] last week @ Abu Dhabi. T-13th [-11] @ DP World. T-10th [-10] Turkish Open both in November 

I meant hasn't played on the PGA tour.  Sorry.  Thanks LeRink 
 
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Posted: #11
i like how this thread is coming together each week.

good luck.



 
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Posted: #12
Andy
I'd be careful going against AN.
He is a very good young player.
He was the European Rookie of the Year last year and performed well in some big events.
He has been playing in Europe as rat mentioned.
Coming off a T13 last week in Abu Dhabi.
An has 6 T15s in his last 8 starts!  That includes a DQ!
This may not be his week as its his 1st start at Torrey Pines and he isn't the most accurate off the tee but he is a very good iron player.
Well bred to be an athlete (both parents were Olympians for South Korea).
He will be heard from...BEWARE

 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by sacker17:

Andy
I'd be careful going against AN.
He is a very good young player.
He was the European Rookie of the Year last year and performed well in some big events.
He has been playing in Europe as rat mentioned.
Coming off a T13 last week in Abu Dhabi.
An has 6 T15s in his last 8 starts!  That includes a DQ!
This may not be his week as its his 1st start at Torrey Pines and he isn't the most accurate off the tee but he is a very good iron player.
Well bred to be an athlete (both parents were Olympians for South Korea).
He will be heard from...BEWARE


I hear ya.  I feel good about the play though.  I'm a Molinari fan, and I love that he's played this tourney before and Hun An hasn't.  
 
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Posted: #14
Round 1 Farmers Matchup:

I am playing Matsu(-150) to beat Tiger(+115) in the first round today.

The price is terrible yet fair, all things considered.

Course is moist and rough is juicy. Lots of rain over the past two weeks.

Matchup offered on Bovada. BOL



 
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Posted: #15
Bol buddy   Played your first four matchups but my book doesn't have the other 2 listed 
 
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Posted: #16
BOL to all! I kind of like tiger to finish better than 52th! I like your match ups Al!!!
 
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Posted: #17
Swafford and Lowry
 
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Posted: #18
  Woodland over Tiger
 
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Posted: #19
why does Mitt think this rahm guy is going to win every tournament and you think he sucks?  why can't we all just get along? 
 
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Posted: #20
[Quote: Originally Posted by ClubDirt] alan and i had a great week last week.  we got a little lucky that i, and hopefully most of you, were able to figure out who "phil" was in our writeups and got those two bets in.  as we all know, golf is some fringe activity engaged in by old white people.  it's not the kind of mainstream event where you can just throw around first names and pretend like people are going to know who the f*ck you are talking about.  michael, lebron, peyton, prince, madonna, even Dr. Phil, sure we all know who those guys are. 

it's like someone saying, i hope phil has a good super bowl.  who?  of course, philip wheeler, backup linebacker for the falcons who has one tackle in the playoffs so far.


ok, on to this week.  despite our success so far, something came to my attention while checking the leaderboard of whatever that tournament was last weekend that made me question my partnership here with alan. apparently, there is an actual golfer who goes by the name Jhonattan Vegas.  i don't know what the f*ck is happening with his first name but with a last name like that, the question becomes, why aren't we betting on this guy.  this sounds like a guy who probably doesn't give a shite if he wins a tournament, but is going to go out there every week and do his best to cover whatever betting matchup vegas sets out for him.

 lt's a long golf season.  let's tighten up this ship. 

  Please now,  if you know that there is golf on and thinking about wagering on it, then you know who Phil is.  Come on man.  Phil is just as recognizable first name as any other out there, just as much so as Kobe or lebron.  If you don't recognize Phil, I don't think you should be wagering.  I would go as far a saying you could say take lefty, and almost all guys that were wagering are going to know who you are referring to, even though there are a handful of leftys out there, I bet Phil sticks out first to most.  All the best in this long season. Tiger at farmers. 

See you at the window.
 
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Posted: #21
[/Quote]

  Please now,  if you know that there is golf on and thinking about wagering on it, then you know who Phil is.  Come on man.  Phil is just as recognizable first name as any other out there, just as much so as Kobe or lebron.  If you don't recognize Phil, I don't think you should be wagering.  I would go as far a saying you could say take lefty, and almost all guys that were wagering are going to know who you are referring to, even though there are a handful of leftys out there, I bet Phil sticks out first to most.  All the best in this long season. Tiger at farmers. 

[/Quote]

He's joking.  It's been an ongoing thing with us.  

Shake it off ClubDirt.  I need you fully locked and loaded.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

why does Mitt think this rahm guy is going to win every tournament and you think he sucks?  why can't we all just get along? 

Lol...I like Rahm a lot.  He'll be good moving forward.  I just like the matchups they've been putting him in.  
 
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Posted: #23
There are some lines makers kicking themselves tonight for posting Tiger Woods vs. Woodland.

I'm really hoping Tiger holds it together and at least gets close to the cut line.  If he plays terrible again tomorrow, we aren't going to get many more juicy matchups involving Tiger moving forward.  
 
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Posted: #24
He was the European Rookie of the Year last year and performed well in some big events

actually you have Byeong-Hun An confused for his fellow younger Korean Jeunghun Wang who was last seasons Euro Tour Rookie of the Year with two wins, two 2nd place and a load of top 20 finishes
 
 
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Posted: #25
Didn't get a good round out of Matsuyama, but I didn't need one. Tiger played as well as expected so it worked out. Today If I want to fade him they are asking for -225 for Matsu and +170 for Tiger. So I'll stay away from that and go after +194 with a parlay for 2nd round matchups:

CH3(-140) over Pat Perez(+110)
Woodland(-140) over BH An(+110)

BOL today


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