What is your preferred strategy for betting golf? What bet types do you make - matchups, outright winners, top 5/10/20? What about bankroll management in terms of units/percentages?
I bet on sports for entertainment and have had some recent success and/or luck betting on golf. What I like to do is pick 5 to 7 players and bet 1 unit on each of them to win outright and 2 units to finish in the top 10. I keep the bet amounts the same regardless of odds. If I bet a guy with huge odds and he ends up winning I would rather be sitting on a big payout as opposed to a small lay and small payout. Plus depending on odds a top 10 finish from a big longshot could net enough of a profit to cover the rest of my bets even if nobody else hits.
Like I said, I am doing this for fun and understand that my methods probably aren't the best for serious gamblers. That being said, I would love to hear other strategies for betting on golf!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
What is your preferred strategy for betting golf? What bet types do you make - matchups, outright winners, top 5/10/20? What about bankroll management in terms of units/percentages?
I bet on sports for entertainment and have had some recent success and/or luck betting on golf. What I like to do is pick 5 to 7 players and bet 1 unit on each of them to win outright and 2 units to finish in the top 10. I keep the bet amounts the same regardless of odds. If I bet a guy with huge odds and he ends up winning I would rather be sitting on a big payout as opposed to a small lay and small payout. Plus depending on odds a top 10 finish from a big longshot could net enough of a profit to cover the rest of my bets even if nobody else hits.
Like I said, I am doing this for fun and understand that my methods probably aren't the best for serious gamblers. That being said, I would love to hear other strategies for betting on golf!
If you are making money stick to what you are doing. Will see a majority of people on here with a wide array of wagers for golf. I was off of this site for many years. I came back in the past 4-5 months and started posting only in the Golf forum. You can probably go back and find it rather easy of when I joined back on. Short story is I have been working from home due to Covid for 11 months now.
My favorite wager is 1st round leader and I also add outright win usually. I have more time to at least watch the 1st round while I am working from home so I have enjoyed it more and also made some real nice money off of it. Knox 66/1, Malnati 45/1, number of others in the 10/1-30/1 range. Hit on Munoz 1st round leader at 80/1 before I posted on here that month. Finding a system you enjoy capping and making money off of is the best.
Financially my system is risky but at the same time if I hit even one tourney I am bankrolled for awhile, mid to longer odds even longer. I enjoy the 1st round leader wager and usually just add outright win to keep me interested in the rest of the tournament. Look at past results from the year and you can find 100/1, 200/1 on up winners for tournaments.
Just a few factors I look at for each tournament are: weather, tee times, pairings, past results at tourney, current form, how weak/strong the field is, what kind of greens, length of course, ton more to factor in.
If looking to change it up or add on just monitor your plays for a bit. If you are having fun and making money, than just keep it up
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If you are making money stick to what you are doing. Will see a majority of people on here with a wide array of wagers for golf. I was off of this site for many years. I came back in the past 4-5 months and started posting only in the Golf forum. You can probably go back and find it rather easy of when I joined back on. Short story is I have been working from home due to Covid for 11 months now.
My favorite wager is 1st round leader and I also add outright win usually. I have more time to at least watch the 1st round while I am working from home so I have enjoyed it more and also made some real nice money off of it. Knox 66/1, Malnati 45/1, number of others in the 10/1-30/1 range. Hit on Munoz 1st round leader at 80/1 before I posted on here that month. Finding a system you enjoy capping and making money off of is the best.
Financially my system is risky but at the same time if I hit even one tourney I am bankrolled for awhile, mid to longer odds even longer. I enjoy the 1st round leader wager and usually just add outright win to keep me interested in the rest of the tournament. Look at past results from the year and you can find 100/1, 200/1 on up winners for tournaments.
Just a few factors I look at for each tournament are: weather, tee times, pairings, past results at tourney, current form, how weak/strong the field is, what kind of greens, length of course, ton more to factor in.
If looking to change it up or add on just monitor your plays for a bit. If you are having fun and making money, than just keep it up
I appreciate the advice and insight from you both!
I hit a few nice bets at Pebble Beach with 3 of my 6 guys (Spieth, Lashley and Day) finishing in the top 10. I had 1 unit on each of them to win and 2 units to finish in the top 10 with all bets placed pre-tourney. Would have been a huge weekend if Lashley would have held on for the outright win, I had him at 175/1. That triple bogey on 16 was devasting! I don't expect to do that well on a consistent basis but it was a fun time following.
Looks like a stacked field this weekend at Genesis, good luck to you both!
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@fightingillini
@johnnystheone
I appreciate the advice and insight from you both!
I hit a few nice bets at Pebble Beach with 3 of my 6 guys (Spieth, Lashley and Day) finishing in the top 10. I had 1 unit on each of them to win and 2 units to finish in the top 10 with all bets placed pre-tourney. Would have been a huge weekend if Lashley would have held on for the outright win, I had him at 175/1. That triple bogey on 16 was devasting! I don't expect to do that well on a consistent basis but it was a fun time following.
Looks like a stacked field this weekend at Genesis, good luck to you both!
Pretty much exactly what I do...golf can be a get rich quick sport, but it's also a great sport to win long term as well. I take 4-5 guys for the top 10, pick one of those guys to win, and then throw a few on a long shot to win. I post my guys for the top 10 in a seperate thread every week if you wanna chime in or check it out. The PGA website does a great job of breaking down the favorites and even a DraftKings daily fantasy pick thread that really breaks down the guys quite well.
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Pretty much exactly what I do...golf can be a get rich quick sport, but it's also a great sport to win long term as well. I take 4-5 guys for the top 10, pick one of those guys to win, and then throw a few on a long shot to win. I post my guys for the top 10 in a seperate thread every week if you wanna chime in or check it out. The PGA website does a great job of breaking down the favorites and even a DraftKings daily fantasy pick thread that really breaks down the guys quite well.
The question is not how to bet but how to cap golf.
The key of this sport is that you need to fully understand the course. Then you see the traits you want in a golfer to excel here. Then you determine who are good natural fits. And then you compare some of those guys to the lines you are given.
Last week, Spieth was amazing. Why? Because Spieth´s weakness is the driving accuracy and in Pebble Beach the driver does not matter much. You are ok hitting shorter clubs off the tee and focusing on hittihg the fairway. And if you miss the fairway, Pebble does not penalize you since there are few hazards or OB, and few trees and easy rough. Pebble has lots of scrambling and Spieth is among the best in that. And he seems to have clicked with his iron accuracy.
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The question is not how to bet but how to cap golf.
The key of this sport is that you need to fully understand the course. Then you see the traits you want in a golfer to excel here. Then you determine who are good natural fits. And then you compare some of those guys to the lines you are given.
Last week, Spieth was amazing. Why? Because Spieth´s weakness is the driving accuracy and in Pebble Beach the driver does not matter much. You are ok hitting shorter clubs off the tee and focusing on hittihg the fairway. And if you miss the fairway, Pebble does not penalize you since there are few hazards or OB, and few trees and easy rough. Pebble has lots of scrambling and Spieth is among the best in that. And he seems to have clicked with his iron accuracy.
I will give you an overview of what I do with Genesis.
Genesis is a course in which driver is hit a lot. It is a tree lined course, where you may get unlucky if you miss the fairway and then have a tree blocking you, but generally it won´t penalize you horribly.
The greens are small and are expected to be very firm. This means we will agains have a lot of missed greens, so scrambling should be key. Also, the firmness of the greens puts an additional importance both on distance and being on the fairway, since it makes it easier for balls to stick in the green. If you are approaching with a 5 iron, chances are very high that you will miss the green.
It is a very tough course to putt. Which offsets a bith the advantage of the best putters.
So... what golfer do we want? We want a guy that hits long and straight (controlled distance). Then we want a very accurate guy with his irons who has been scrambling well. I don´t care about putting for this tourney.
Who fits that mold? Dustin Johnson of course, but I will not bet him at those odds. Who else? Rahm? Finau? JT? Bubba Watson?
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I will give you an overview of what I do with Genesis.
Genesis is a course in which driver is hit a lot. It is a tree lined course, where you may get unlucky if you miss the fairway and then have a tree blocking you, but generally it won´t penalize you horribly.
The greens are small and are expected to be very firm. This means we will agains have a lot of missed greens, so scrambling should be key. Also, the firmness of the greens puts an additional importance both on distance and being on the fairway, since it makes it easier for balls to stick in the green. If you are approaching with a 5 iron, chances are very high that you will miss the green.
It is a very tough course to putt. Which offsets a bith the advantage of the best putters.
So... what golfer do we want? We want a guy that hits long and straight (controlled distance). Then we want a very accurate guy with his irons who has been scrambling well. I don´t care about putting for this tourney.
Who fits that mold? Dustin Johnson of course, but I will not bet him at those odds. Who else? Rahm? Finau? JT? Bubba Watson?
Spieth has been playing well (grinding). He just cant seem to finish in round 4. For the most part he has eliminated the major blowup holes, but he cant seem to nail down round 4. I took him again this week. He's close. Real close. I hope this is the week, but I'm BIG on Dechambeau this week. I've had some big hits on golf this year. I hit $440 on Reed a few weeks ago.
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@gutinstinctus
Spieth has been playing well (grinding). He just cant seem to finish in round 4. For the most part he has eliminated the major blowup holes, but he cant seem to nail down round 4. I took him again this week. He's close. Real close. I hope this is the week, but I'm BIG on Dechambeau this week. I've had some big hits on golf this year. I hit $440 on Reed a few weeks ago.
Stick to head-to-head matchups. Not going to hit the jackpot but can be profitable long-term. Factor in a mix of current form and history at that particular event.
Like @gutinstinctus mentioned above, look at the course they are playing that week. What has been required to perform well there in the past? Which players does that favor (bombers, strong iron play, scrambling)? You can find 'play-on' and 'play-against' players that may be available in multiple tournament matchups for the week.
In full tournament matchups, look at the weather and the tee time draw for the first 2 rounds. If there are heavy winds scheduled for Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, look for players on an AM-PM draw (Thursday-Friday) who avoid that.
For round-by-round betting, Strokes Gained is a very useful tool. Find outliers from the previous rounds that are likely to come back down to earth. Ie. Someone who was around 0 or negative in SG off the tee and approach but putted way over their head to shoot a low score - look to fade them the next round. On the flip side, someone who gained multiple strokes T2G but couldn't make a putt and did not score well - look to bet on them the next round. Outside of a very few number of players, ball striking prevails in the long run.
Shop around at different sportsbooks too, find the best odds and best matchups to either 'bet on' or 'bet against' the players you identify.
BOL
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Stick to head-to-head matchups. Not going to hit the jackpot but can be profitable long-term. Factor in a mix of current form and history at that particular event.
Like @gutinstinctus mentioned above, look at the course they are playing that week. What has been required to perform well there in the past? Which players does that favor (bombers, strong iron play, scrambling)? You can find 'play-on' and 'play-against' players that may be available in multiple tournament matchups for the week.
In full tournament matchups, look at the weather and the tee time draw for the first 2 rounds. If there are heavy winds scheduled for Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, look for players on an AM-PM draw (Thursday-Friday) who avoid that.
For round-by-round betting, Strokes Gained is a very useful tool. Find outliers from the previous rounds that are likely to come back down to earth. Ie. Someone who was around 0 or negative in SG off the tee and approach but putted way over their head to shoot a low score - look to fade them the next round. On the flip side, someone who gained multiple strokes T2G but couldn't make a putt and did not score well - look to bet on them the next round. Outside of a very few number of players, ball striking prevails in the long run.
Shop around at different sportsbooks too, find the best odds and best matchups to either 'bet on' or 'bet against' the players you identify.
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