My thinking going into this is LIV guys will struggle, and I have been watching LIV and getting into it. but I think playing LIV courses are way easier than the avg. PGA tour course and no where near places like bay hill, sawgrass, pebble beach and certainly not in the same solar system as Augusta. not to mention the bigger field, none shoot gun start, fans, pressure of a cut, and the lack of tournaments to get ready (only 9 rounds of golf leading into masters week) all have to weight heavy on these guys. I started this week thinking LIV guys would compete and maybe win.
Rahm -150 over Smith. Cam is the only LIV guy to win off LIV (won Australian PGA Champ), but in 3 LIV events he has struggled and wasn't ever close to contention.Rahm been cooler lately but still been hot as hell the last 5 months and should have a great masters( see to win picks below)
LIV Players to make the Cut u11.5
18 guys from LIV are in at Augusta but only about half have a legit shot at making cut IMO. and only a couple a chance to win.
DONT make the cut
-Garcia +155,He hasn't played well since starting with LIV wasn't Playing well before LIV and has missed cut in 3 of 4 at Augusta since winning his green jacket.
-Varner +155,I was on the fence here, he had a great 1st year at Masters last year one bad round 3 sunk his chances, but I think he will be more effected my the lack of events and really rounds overall coming from LIV, and after watching his interview he became my favorite fade of the week. talked about how terrible he is hitting the ball, he doesn't like playing in cold weather, and only there because he thought there was a glitch in the OWR so he snuck in to the field.he also hasn't gotten any momentum on the LIV tour and was very honest it was a cash grab, so not sure where his motivation is.
-Tiger +130,this one is scary.if this was anyone not named Tiger he would be -500, but this is Tiger and he knows Augusta like the back of his hand. He doesn't sound like Tiger he sounds like a fighter talking about retirement. and one the only guys to play less than the LIV guys. but the deciding factor is his late tee time on Friday he going to have the worst of the weather of the weekday rounds and could be a tough day walking that course in the cold.
-Zach Johnson -135,My one bet not targeting LIV guys. he has Missed the last 2 cuts here and not really close. Zach was never a long player on tour relied on a great short game and working around a course. Augusta has lengthened the course a lot over the last few years and his scoring over that time has gotten worse, now longer 13th, wet fairways less run out an already long course is going to be playing even longer and that hurts his game a lot.... again I feel like this line should be closer to -200 so gladly take the value and was my favorite play before Varner's interview.
HEAD 2 HEAD
problem with these are different books offer different matchups, I bet these at Circa.
-Hoge/Varner -125
Read about my write up on Varner and is a fade on him and a back up incase he does make the cut.he will fade over weekend, but don't think he makes it that far, and Hoge is a sneaky play also for top 20.
-Noren v Garcia
Same thought process as the last one. as much a fade on Garcia as a bet on Noren. That being said I like Noren and think he makes the cut and don't think Garcia will.
ONE more sleep and its the Masters. GL with your bets
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