This coming week brings us to the Mexico open, an even I actually hit a nice outright on last year with Jake knapp, who I am considering going back to this week. This is played at Vidanta Vallarta which is a very long par 71 course measuring out at 7,456 yards. Actually only has 9 par 4s, as there are five par 3s and 4 par 5s. This course features quite a few holes with water danger and a ton of bunkering which are the primary defenses here with a very low rough penalty and very wide fairway landing areas. Paspalum is the grass surface here which is interesting as you hardly get any roll out on it on drives, making carry distance a stat I will dial in on this week. Hence why we’ve seen bombers in Tony Finau and Jake Knapp win this event the past 2 years. I don’t think distance is the end all be all as there are other ways to find success, but there’s a definite edge there. With how easy this place is off the tee, it makes approach game that much more important. This is almost exclusively a long iron tests with only 21% of approach shots coming from inside 150 yards. Sufficient long iron play will be paramount to success here. This course is extremely vanilla around the greens, ranking as the easiest on tour in that regard. I would put more weight on sand saves rather than around the green due to all the green side bunkers here. Putting is a different story, as it ranks as the 15th toughest course in that regard due to these slow greens with some subtle undulations on the surfaces here. Primarily what we want here IMO are guys that have above average carry distance off the tee, very good long iron play especially from 200+ yds, and adequate bunker play. Guys that have played well on resort courses and places like corales and el cardonal is an added bonus with these courses being very similar in terms of agronomy and layout. Most of my weight will be on long iron play ultimately. I have fired on 2 and will wait for more books to open on the others.
Akshay Bhatia (22-1) (Not super long, but should be able to avoid the trouble around here. I think he can win this on the back of his currently hot putter and long iron play. 1st in this field in history on paspalum and 4th in resort course history)
Nicolai Hojgaard (50-1) (Very long off the tee and one of the top long iron players in this field. Has been rock solid on approach this year, like the fit on a course that devalues his horrific around the green play and values his ballstriking. 6th at corales in 2022)
1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
This coming week brings us to the Mexico open, an even I actually hit a nice outright on last year with Jake knapp, who I am considering going back to this week. This is played at Vidanta Vallarta which is a very long par 71 course measuring out at 7,456 yards. Actually only has 9 par 4s, as there are five par 3s and 4 par 5s. This course features quite a few holes with water danger and a ton of bunkering which are the primary defenses here with a very low rough penalty and very wide fairway landing areas. Paspalum is the grass surface here which is interesting as you hardly get any roll out on it on drives, making carry distance a stat I will dial in on this week. Hence why we’ve seen bombers in Tony Finau and Jake Knapp win this event the past 2 years. I don’t think distance is the end all be all as there are other ways to find success, but there’s a definite edge there. With how easy this place is off the tee, it makes approach game that much more important. This is almost exclusively a long iron tests with only 21% of approach shots coming from inside 150 yards. Sufficient long iron play will be paramount to success here. This course is extremely vanilla around the greens, ranking as the easiest on tour in that regard. I would put more weight on sand saves rather than around the green due to all the green side bunkers here. Putting is a different story, as it ranks as the 15th toughest course in that regard due to these slow greens with some subtle undulations on the surfaces here. Primarily what we want here IMO are guys that have above average carry distance off the tee, very good long iron play especially from 200+ yds, and adequate bunker play. Guys that have played well on resort courses and places like corales and el cardonal is an added bonus with these courses being very similar in terms of agronomy and layout. Most of my weight will be on long iron play ultimately. I have fired on 2 and will wait for more books to open on the others.
Akshay Bhatia (22-1) (Not super long, but should be able to avoid the trouble around here. I think he can win this on the back of his currently hot putter and long iron play. 1st in this field in history on paspalum and 4th in resort course history)
Nicolai Hojgaard (50-1) (Very long off the tee and one of the top long iron players in this field. Has been rock solid on approach this year, like the fit on a course that devalues his horrific around the green play and values his ballstriking. 6th at corales in 2022)
@Rollz All good, I was trying to make you feel even better than you do. Keep up the good work.
That’s the last thing I need I’m probably feelin myself a little too much. Been a good run but admittedly unsustainable. Hope to keep it goin though, thanks brotha!
0
Quote Originally Posted by Borgota:
@Rollz All good, I was trying to make you feel even better than you do. Keep up the good work.
That’s the last thing I need I’m probably feelin myself a little too much. Been a good run but admittedly unsustainable. Hope to keep it goin though, thanks brotha!
Great writeup. Where are you finding your stats. For example, 21% of approaches coming from less than 150 yards and around the greens ranking easiest here?
Most of that stuff comes from betsperts golf, which is behind a pay wall unfortunately. But is well worth it as a dude over there puts out an article each week with a lot of course info and they have a great modeling database.
1
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Great writeup. Where are you finding your stats. For example, 21% of approaches coming from less than 150 yards and around the greens ranking easiest here?
Most of that stuff comes from betsperts golf, which is behind a pay wall unfortunately. But is well worth it as a dude over there puts out an article each week with a lot of course info and they have a great modeling database.
I dont hate it, he did model pretty well for me, I just think there are better options personally in terms of an outright. He hasnt won in almost 10 years, i would rather take my chances on some of the younger up and comers. I could definitely see playing him in the positional market as he is doing some pretty sustainable stuff with the driver and irons, gaining in each of his last 4 events on approach and 3/4 off the tee. Hes also had some success at corales which i view as a pretty solid comparative course, but ill be investing elsewhere i just dont know if the winning upside is there with him. GL!
0
Quote Originally Posted by Jetman25:
Thoughts on Charley Hoffman?
I dont hate it, he did model pretty well for me, I just think there are better options personally in terms of an outright. He hasnt won in almost 10 years, i would rather take my chances on some of the younger up and comers. I could definitely see playing him in the positional market as he is doing some pretty sustainable stuff with the driver and irons, gaining in each of his last 4 events on approach and 3/4 off the tee. Hes also had some success at corales which i view as a pretty solid comparative course, but ill be investing elsewhere i just dont know if the winning upside is there with him. GL!
Nice streak you have going!! I'm gonna tail Fishburn, I like that one. Also, saw Hoffman mentioned above, he's my top choice. Playing Hossler as well. Good luck!
Hossler was in consideration for me, despite the fact that I can’t stand him kinda flying under the radar this week. BOL buddy
0
Quote Originally Posted by Jetman25:
Nice streak you have going!! I'm gonna tail Fishburn, I like that one. Also, saw Hoffman mentioned above, he's my top choice. Playing Hossler as well. Good luck!
Hossler was in consideration for me, despite the fact that I can’t stand him kinda flying under the radar this week. BOL buddy
Changed my mind, wanted some exposure to these guys and like the value on these positional numbers. Rai just missed the outright card, like him this week.
Top 10 (ties included)
Justin Lower (+450)
Top 20 (ties included):
Aaron Rai (+145)
Greyson Sigg (+230)
Chan Kim (+250)
1
Changed my mind, wanted some exposure to these guys and like the value on these positional numbers. Rai just missed the outright card, like him this week.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.