The Open Championship

d

I think this forum is pretty good, people are good at spotting golfers that will pop off. But the biggest mistake I see people make is that they only bet on a golfer to win outright, rather than him placing in top 20 top 10 and potentially top 5. So youre not sugercoating it in the value that it should have. Predicting an outright winner is always tough, only 1 can win obviously and the field is huge, but if you can successfully predict golfers to perform better than odds indicate, then you should be getting the most value out of making that prediction. Here are my bets and how I go about it. All odds are from bet365. You can probably find higher odds elsewhere I just like it for its simplicity and its not complicated and payouts are easy. But yeah, you can probably get higher odds on some of these if u wanna squeeze out some more value. I like to do: Outright winner, Top 10 and Top 20. Sometimes Top 5. But I have scrapped that for this open. Top 10 and Top 20 gives a lot of cushioning and top 5 can easily fade away on the last 3 holes.

The Open Championship 2019 - Outright Winner

- Patrick Cantlay @ +2800

- Matt Kuchar @ +3500

- Bryson DeChambeau @ +4000

- Paul Casey @ +5500

- Bernd Wiesberger @ +6600

- Erik van Rooyen @ +11000

- Brandt Snedeker @ +12500

- Russell Knox @ +17500

The Open Championship 2019 - Top 10

- Patrick Cantlay @ +250

- Matt Kuchar @ +275

- Bryson DeChambeau @ +350

- Paul Casey @ +450

- Bernd Wiesberger @ +500

- Erik van Rooyen @ +800

- Brandt Snedeker @ +1000

- Russell Knox @ +1600

The Open Championship 2019 - Top 20

- Patrick Cantlay @ +120

- Matt Kuchar @ +137

- Bryson DeChambeau @ +162

- Paul Casey @ +200

- Bernd Wiesberger @ +250

- Erik van Rooyen @ +350

- Brandt Snedeker @ +550

- Russell Knox @ +700

Im not gonna show you the breakdown for how much you should bet on each golfer, thats up to yourself, but I will give an example of what I've done. The principle is this though: If a golfer youve bet on finishes in top 20, you have to make sure youre making money. You should be profiting from successfully predicting a golfer in top 20, because thats not easy. The only exception to this is if youre betting a top favorite because then the value of top 20 is so small its barely worth it. In that case you can either scrap the top 20 bet, but id prefer to keep the top 20 bet and just accept that you will lose a bit of money if he only gets into top 20 and falls short of top 10. 

Anyways so lets take a look at the example for what I've done on one of the golfers

- Paul Casey Top 20 $575 @ +200

- Paul Casey Top 10 $300 @ +450

- Paul Casey To Win Outright $125 @ +5500

If Casey finishes in Top 20 I will win 1725, I bet a total of $1000 on him so thats a profit of $725

If Casey finishes in Top 10 I will win 1650, since Casey finishing in Top 10 also means I will win the top 20 bet, so thats 1725 + 1650 - the $1000 I bet on Casey in total. So thats a profit of 2375.

If Casey wins outright I will win $7000. + the Top 10 and Top 20 bet, that gives us a total profit of $9375.

So as you can see, no matter what if Casey finishes in Top 20 we will make a good profit. Top 10 or an outright win will just up that. And you could add top 5 to this mix, thats not bad, Ive just chosen not to this major. The good thing is you could theoretically have all your players finish in Top 20 or top 10 if you bet on 7 players, unrealistic but possible. And if someone makes a run for the title then youre really great off. I wouldnt recommend betting on more than 8 golfers for this Outright/Top 10/Top 20 format. If you have a lot of dogs you can bet on 8 golfers id say. But if all your picks are mostly golfers among the favorites to win (+4000 or lower) then id not go with more than 4 or 5. 

And I apologize for the d in OP, it wouldnt let me post a topic for so many hours so I just kept trying different things, so it had to be a comment instead when I finally got some topic created.

Best of luck this Open. Think we will see some amazing golf.