Coming off our 3rd outright of the year 
let’s see if we can find some more success. I don’t have time for a write up tonight will have one at some point this week.
I played cauley on open and have a lot of interest in McCarthy and spieth but want to see if I can find better numbers when more books open tomorrow.
Bud Cauley (50-1)
This week brings us to San Antonio for the Valero Texas open. This event is held at tpc San Antonio. This venue usually ranks out among the top 15 toughest courses on the pga tour, and depending on the Texas winds we see it is usually won anywhere from -13 to -20 under par. Tpc San Antonio is a par 72 measuring out at 7,438 yards, one of the longer courses on tour.
Off the tee here is kinda similar to last week in terms of the rough being very short and easy to play out of. These fairways are extremely narrow though and even the most accurate guys will miss them. There is also a lot more tree trouble out here that has me leaning more towards guys that are accurate off the tee, which has been a model for success here year after year. There’s a reason we’ve seen guys like Corey Conners, Denny McCarthy, and Akshay Bhatia have a ton of success here in the last couple years. Keeping it in play is huge to avoid the big numbers that are lurking out here at one of the highest rates on the pga tour given the tree lined fairways and brush areas that players find every year, I will have a heavier weight on accuracy off the tee. Being in the rough Is perfectly fine but avoiding the big miss is key on this golf course.
This is absolutely a golf course that is won with high end approach, one of the toughest approach courses on tour. This is a product of the Texas winds and firm undulating greens that require precision for birdie looks, much similar to what we saw last week on approach. We’ll see a heavy amount of approaches from 150-200 yds, with a big uptick from what we’re used to from 250+ yards. This is due to some really long, difficult par 5s that you have to take advantage of to create separation here. I’ll be looking for in form approach play above all else, but also guys that have had success from 250+ yds. Not something I look at much, but it’s warranted here IMO as you can gain a big edge by hitting greens in 2 on these tough par 5s.
This will be a relatively similar setup on and around the greens as we saw in Houston last week in terms of the undulating surfaces and high rate of missed greens resulting in guys needing to scramble around here often. I don’t think you need to be a great putter to have success here, but I definitely prefer guys that are competent around the greens due to the sheer volume of pitches you have to hit around here.
I’m also taking a look at par 5 scoring, 3 putt avoidance, and course history at a place that course history has been very predictive. Already played Cauley and adding Lee Hodges. I still haven’t made a decision at the top of the board but will be back
Bud Cauley (50-1)
Lee Hodges (75-1)
Got to admit, this number feels gross. Haven’t gone down the speith ride for awhile but this feels right. In his home state where he plays his best golf, has a win and multiple top 10s here, plays well on comparative courses (4th at Scottsdale this year which has similarities), and was absolutely dialed with his irons last time out. I’ll bite on the low number as I feel it’s warranted in this spot
Jordan Spieth (24-1)
Here’s everything in so far, have room for one more outright and will be adding positionals. Will wrap up the card tonight
Outrights:
Jordan Spieth (24-1)
JT Poston (55-1)
Bud Cauley (50-1)
Lee Hodges (75-1)
Top 20 (ties included):
Si Woo Kim (+162)
Keith Mitchell (+180)
JT Poston (+200)
Andrew Novak (+240
I like where Berger is heading. He’s so balanced overall which creates a great floor for a top 20 bet. If we can just get a spike on the greens or on approach we know he has the balls to close a tournament. His accuracy off the tee, steady approach play and supreme around the green game should play well here
Daniel Berger (35-1)
Daniel Berger top 20 (+140)
Big card this this week, couple last minute adds. GL 
Outrights:
Jordan Spieth (24-1)
Daniel Berger (35-1)
JT Poston (55-1)
Bud Cauley (50-1)
Lee Hodges (75-1)
Top 10 (ties included):
Patrick Cantlay (+187)
Jordan Spieth (+240)
Top 20 (ties included):
Daniel Berger (+140)
Si Woo Kim (+162)
Keith Mitchell (+180)
JT Poston (+200)
Andrew Novak (+240)
Brian Harman (+275)
Well couldnt ask for a better start for my card with 6/8 positionals all in the top 6 currently. Unfortunately just missed out on harman in the outright market, hoping one of my outrights can make a move but a harman win would be profitable as i have the top 20 and alot of exposure in dfs. Lets have a weekend 
Will be balls deep in masters research these next couple days
Harmon is pretty battle hardened, probably going to be hard to catch. I have Hoge, Vilamaki & Cantlay. Cantlay missed 2 putts early in round today that couldn't have been 3'.
Vilamaki would be a huge hit. He's 6 shots down, just not likely. Guy plays that good last week and gets no respect at all. I got him at +115000. Regret not taking some of the top markets, they had to be great odds, T40 T20 T10. Too greedy.
Valimaki continues to pop, I wouldn’t be surprised if he knocked off a lower end tournament at some point. GL today my friend 
Good win Rollz. Way to jump on Harmon at a decent price before he got a large lead. If he was in a field with players, he loses but the guys around him just weren't elite.
Valimaki got me good, one shot from top 5. I bet him Saturday night +190 T5. He was tied for 5th going in. Last week he played 18 holes without making a mistake, he couldn't get through the first hole without a bogey yesterday...
Oh well, onto the masters.
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