Valspar Championship

Been doing some research on the valspar, so wanted to go ahead and post an early write up.. 

The valspar is held at innisbrook resort on the copperhead course which consistently breeds difficult scoring conditions. Innisbrook is a par 71 measuring out at 7,340 yards. It is a tight, tree lined parklands style course with very difficult to hit fairways and a lot of trouble when you miss them. Very windy conditions are something we see regularly here and is part of the reason this course plays so tough. This tournament is generally won anywhere between -7 and -17 depending on the weather, and looking at the early forecast I would guess we get closer to -7 than -17 this week 

These are on average the 6th most narrow fairways on the pga tour. When they are missed, which happens at a very high rate here, you will often be penalized by punching out due to tree trouble and lush thick rough. It is through and through a positional golf course, and not one you can go bombs away off the tee on. There are also a lot of dog legs and tough angles, all of which will force most of these guys to club down off the tee frequently. I’m looking for guys that are accurate off the tee preferably, but not exclusively as the difficult to hit fairways will result in all of these guys playing out of the rough here quite a bit.

This is also a difficult course on approach, with relatively small, firm greens. With these guys having to club down off the tee means alot of long iron approaches into greens which are always tough to hold on this golf course. There are also an unconventional 5 par 3s here, all of which measure out around 200 yds. I will be specifically dialing in on in form approach players and good long term long iron play from 175+ yards.

I also prefer guys that are good around the green players. Innisbrook has one of the lowest greens in regulation % on tour and typically gets windy which means guys will have to scramble for par around here often. It’s not particularly difficult in that regard but I’ll still be looking for solid long term around the green play. With this venue consistently playing very difficult I will not put alot of weight on putting as you don’t have to make a ton of birdies to win here. But these are the same poa trivialis greens that we’re seeing at sawgrass this week so guys that are putting well this week may be a decent look. 

I’ll also be looking into guys that play well in difficult scoring conditions, and have had success at innisbrook and other tight, positional golf courses such as sedgefield, sawgrass, and harbour town. I prefer guys that have good recent form as each of the last 17 winners here have posted a top 11 finish earlier in the season. Taking an early look at the conditions…it looks to be very gusty, but the potential for a wave advantage is very much in play. This may lead me to hold off on some bets until tee times are released. Unless there is value on the board that I can’t pass up I will wait until we have a a better idea of the weather/tee times before placing wagers. Should be another fun week, hopefully full of carnage 

Have some guys in mind that I like at this golf course, but as of now there is a legitimate shot of a wave advantage for the AM/PM guys. Heavy winds projected Thursday later afternoon and will continue through Friday morning where they eventually die down in the evening. 

Weather can change on a dime, but this is worth monitoring IMO and if it holds up by tomorrow when tee times drop I’ll probly go ahead and take a chance on some guy’s teeing off early on Thursday. 

Well wanted to wait for tee times, but this is a small investment and the number is trending down so getting in while I can. Mcgreevy with another nice showing last week, and is hitting the irons extremely well. 10th on approach at the players in a very strong field finishing 20th and a 4th place finish just a couple weeks back. Very accurate off the tee, just like the skill set for this setup 

Max Mcgreevy (100-1) 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (80-1)

Tom Kim (30-1)